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Astros Playoff Odds: After the Weekend Action

Three days, three games, that's what the weekend had on tap for the Astros and their playoff rivals. So what's new on the playoff landscape? This is especially relevant since the Astros are hanging onto playoff hopes by a proverbial thread.

We're a half game better in the WC standings at 6 games back, but our elimination number has dropped to 14 on the strength on an Astros loss and two Brewers win over the weekend. With 18 games left on the slate, the Astros are still not the masters of their own destinies -- never a comfortable position. I'll say more about the Pirates in tonights game thread, but I thought it'd be good fodder to see the play-off odds even after we dropped two in the elimination number column, but half a game in the standings.

Here's what I reported the other day:

Report NL Central Champs NL Wild Card Playoffs
BPro Playoff Odds .01065% 1.19726% 1.20791%
BPro PECOTA Adjusted Odds .00893% 1.0474% 1.05633%
BPro Schedule Adjusted Odds .06689% 1.0474% 1.05633%
Cool Standings Odds >1% 1.7% 1.7%

Here's how they stand after the dust settled on yesterday's action:

Report NL Central Champs NL Wild Card Playoffs
BPro Playoff Odds .02716% 1.57815% 1.60531%
BPro PECOTA Adjusted Odds .002238% 1.38954% 1.41191%
BPro Schedule Adjusted Odds .11320% 3.28995% 3.40315%
Cool Standings Odds >1% 1.7% 1.8%

Slight improvements all across the board, especially in the schedule adjusted category. The qualifiers of course are the following:

  1. We are down Ty Wigginton for up to ten days.
  2. Wandy could easily be out for the season.
  3. Backe (a month ago I would have considered his absence an asset, not a liability) could also be out for the rest of the season.
Of course, all of this could be mitigated by a stunning performance tonight from Arais and Darin Erstad catching a little bit of fire himself. If there's one thing we've learned since Lee's absence from the line-up, is that streakiness in small sample sizes can certainly fill in adequately for the big guy's hole. I will, however, cross my fingers that Abercrombie does not become the defacto LF in Wiggy's absence.

My question to you guys stems from the fact that the statistics suggest that hope not only abounds, but our probability of reaching October baseball has increased: