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Oswalt Moves to 23-1 Against Reds and Astros Keep Hope Alive: NL Wild Card Odds (9/26/08)

Unfortunately, the Mets and the Brewers managed to find ways to win last night -- it should be noted that the Cubs used none of their big guys (Lee, Soto, Ramirez, Soriano). Fortunately, on short rest, Roy Oswalt was able to continue making the Reds his whipping boys, even if the bull pen really wanted to make things interesting in the bottom of the ninth (five runs allowed, to pull the game within two). With the fortunes of yesterday revealed, the facts stand at this: the Astros cannot lose and the Brewers and the Mets are going to have to be swept. This seems rather unlikely given that the Cubs are seemingly resting their starters. Alas, let's give this post one last time through -- in the hope that I'll have to update it tomorrow.

National League Wild Card Standings

Milwaukee 88 71 .553 0 Won 4
New York 88 71 .553 0 Won 1
Houston 84 74 .531 3.5 Won 2

(updated 9.26.2008 at 8:24 AM CDT)

So there it is. Our can't lose and can't win hope for October baseball. Whether or not we still get to dream about October baseball tomorrow, we should remind ourselves of this: it's the final Friday of the season and we're still alive in the Wild Card race. That, is a good season right there. There's not a whole lot more you can, ultimately, ask for as a fan.

With one in the elimination column, three more on the board for the Mets and the Brewers, four (possibly) left for us what do our odds look like?

Report Wild Card
BPro Unadjusted
BPro Schedule Adjusted
Cool Standings
SCS Weighted
SCS 50/50 0.0%

Sports Club Stats only had one result, in their Monte Carlo sim, that had in us winning the wild card. The numbers just confirm how screwed we are. But screw'em, let's take a look at the match-ups we need to root against tonight.

Next Game

Chicago Cubs
@ Milwaukee Brewers

Friday, Sep 26, 2008, 7:05 PM CDT
Miller Park

Ryan Dempster vs Jeff Suppan

Clear. Winds blowing in from center field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game Time temperature: Around 70.

Complete Coverage >

Next Game

Florida Marlins
@ New York Mets

Friday, Sep 26, 2008, 6:10 PM CDT
Shea Stadium

Chris Volstad vs Mike Pelfrey

Mostly cloudy with a 100-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing in from center field at 10-20 m.p.h. Game Time temperature: Around 65.

Complete Coverage >

Dempster can surely make mince-meat of the Brewers and Mike Pelfrey is a CHUMP.

So there you go. Savor today, it could be our last meaningful day in 2008.