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Backe, Bull Pen, and Astros Bats Couldn't Catch the Fish: Astros NL Wild Card Odds (9/18/08)

Last night was embarassing. We looked every bit the part of the team that many people have claimed to have been vastly over achieving for the last two months and were due for a crash back down to earth. Hurricane or no Hurricane, tough road series or no tough road series, the Astros, at some point, are going to have get over the hand they've been dealt and play it. They just looked awful last night which is a mirror imagine of their previous three nights. As a result of all of this, are chances of making the play offs have been decimated, especially since the Mets, the Brewers, and Marlins all won last night, leaving the NL Wild Card race looking like this:

National League Wild Card Standings

New York 84 67 .556 0 Won 1
Milwaukee 84 68 .552 0.5 Won 1
Houston 80 71 .529 4 Lost 4
Florida 79 72 .523 5 Won 7
St. Louis 78 73 .516 6 Lost 7
so sad

(updated 9.18.2008 at 9:47 AM CDT)

Four games out and an elimination number that has been cut down to 8, with 11 games to play, means that the Astros cannot lose anymore this season and the other teams have to help us by losing games. We're exactly where we were at the end of 2006, when every night you had to pray that the Cards would find away to screw it up and then hope that we'd eek out a win. The only difference is that team had Roger, Andy, and Roy. As of late, however, our pitchers have been in a habit of letting the game get out of hand real quick. Aside from considering the all reliever rotation today, we should also consider remembering how to hit the baseball -- Lance Berkman I'm looking at you.

I fully believe that this team could easily real of the wins necessary to take the NL Wild Card. Our schedule from here on out consists of:

  1. 1 More game against the Marlins
  2. 3 in Pittsburgh -- a team that would probably get beat by the Express at this point.
  3. 3, at home, against the Reds -- our personal whipping boys or at least Roy's and Lance's.
  4. 3, at home, against the Braves.
The fact that we finish at home against the Braves brings back TERRIBLE memories of 2006.

Anyway, here are the odds and they are not good:
Report Wild Card
BPro Unadjusted
BPro Schedule Adjusted
Cool Standings
SCS Weighted
SCS 50/50

Here's a chart of how all the possible combinations of season finishes could impact our odds of making the playoffs (From Sports Club Stats Weighted Version):


These last two losses have really hampered our shot at making the playoffs, but you gotta believe. The title of the chart should be "You Can't F*#K Up Anymore."

Here are the match-ups you will be rooting against today:

Next Game

New York Mets
@ Washington Nationals

Thursday, Sep 18, 2008, 6:10 PM CDT
Nationals Park

Johan Santana vs Tim Redding

Clear. Winds blowing in from left field at 10-15 m.p.h. Game Time temperature: Around 75.

Complete Coverage >

Johan is a CHUMP, we all know that. Tim Redding...(please baseball gods, throw us a bone)

Next Game

Milwaukee Brewers
@ Chicago Cubs

Thursday, Sep 18, 2008, 1:20 PM CDT
Wrigley Field

Dave Bush vs Rich Harden

Sunny. Winds blowing in from right field at 10-15 m.p.h. Game Time temperature: Around 70.

Complete Coverage >

Bush-league for Harden, we can rest assured on that one.

Next Game

Houston Astros
@ Florida Marlins

Thursday, Sep 18, 2008, 6:10 PM CDT
Dolphin Stadium

Alberto Arias vs Scott Olsen

Partly cloudy with a 40-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing in from center field at 10-15 m.p.h. Game Time temperature: Around 80.

Complete Coverage >

He was good the last time out, let's just hope it wasn't a fluke. I here Scott Olsen hates America and babies.