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Astros Wild Card Odds (9/16/08): After Bud Selig's Farce

Despite what some rowdy Cubs fans, who wandered in from who knows where, tried to imply yesterday, that series was a joke. In the end, it was Bud Selig essentially ensuring that the Astros would manage to lose these games and fall of the pace of his beloved Brew Crew. If that be the case, then he got what he wished. The Astros fell another in the elimination column yesterday, taking the Brewers/Phillies magic number down to 11. The good news for Astros fans is this: 10-3 is all we need. Granted, that sounds ludcrisous to say "that's ALL we need," but every model agrees that 90 wins is the magic ticket to the Wild Card or at least one of those coin flipping scenarios.

Quickly, here are the standings:

National League Wild Card Standings

Milwaukee 83 67 .553 0 Lost 4
Philadelphia 83 67 .553 0 Won 4
Houston 80 69 .536 2.5 Lost 2

(updated 9.16.2008 at 10:53 AM CDT)

At this point I think I'll throw this hope/prayer out for how I think we can still make it to October, in spite of Bud Selig's hopes and dreams. The Phillies are hot, as a hot as the Astros were prior to Ike. The Brewer's are imploding and I don't think firing the manager will make that situation better. So, if the Phillies win tonight and the Mets lose, suddenly the Astros are chasing two teams who are imploading or struggling to keep it together. Both of these teams also have a 500lb gorilla on their backs from last years September collapses and the Astros, in theory, have experience in home-stretch kicks. But enough of my drivel, let's see what the models say our exact odds are after yesterday:

Report Wild Card
BPro Unadjusted
BPro Schedule Adjusted
Cool Standings
SCS Weighted
SCS 50/50

They all took hits, but they're all doable odds. I fully believe that if the Cubs rout the Brewers, the Phillies can beat the Braves, and the Mets can somehow lose to the Nationals, then our odds will be higher than they were at the high water mark on Saturday.

These are the match-ups to root against today:

Next Game

Philadelphia Phillies
@ Atlanta Braves

Tuesday, Sep 16, 2008, 6:10 PM CDT
Turner Field

Jamie Moyer vs James Parr

Mostly cloudy with a 30-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing in from center field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game Time temperature: Around 75.

Complete Coverage >

Next Game

Milwaukee Brewers
@ Chicago Cubs

Tuesday, Sep 16, 2008, 7:05 PM CDT
Wrigley Field

CC Sabathia vs Ryan Dempster

Mostly clear. Winds blowing out to center field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game Time temperature: Around 65.

Complete Coverage >

Next Game

New York Mets
@ Washington Nationals

Tuesday, Sep 16, 2008, 6:10 PM CDT
Nationals Park

Mike Pelfrey vs Odalis Perez

Partly cloudy. Winds blowing in from center field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game Time temperature: Around 75.

Complete Coverage >

Start sending your prayers to the baseball gods, they should include the following:

  1. Let Mike Pelfrey fall on his face or have the Mets bull pen totally screw him, while Odalis Perez manages to baffle the Mets line-up.
  2. I know we asked you guys to make CC Sabathia human enough to lose his last start, but could you do that for us again? Thanks. You can just pin it on the bull pen if you don't feel like hurting CC's pride.
  3. Let Jamie Moyer be the old guy who keeps making hitters look stupid.