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Astros Leapfrog into Second in the NL Wild Card: Play Off Odds 9/11/08

Because there is really nothing more American and patriotic than a stretch run in September, after pausing for a second to remember that today is the seventh anniversary of 9/11, let's check in on the play off odds.

Because Dusty Baker refused to take David Weathers out of the 8th inning yesterday, the Brewers managed to steal a victory and take our elimination number down to 13. Don't worry, that was the only bad news of yesterday. The Phillies lost and the Cardinals lost, which means we no stand four games behind the Brewers, but we no longer have to leap frog any more teams, because the Astros were propelled into victory on the strength of a Hunter Pence blast and a Miguel Tejada grand slam.

National League Wild Card Standings

Milwaukee 83 63 .568 0 Won 1
Houston 79 67 .541 4 Won 5
Philadelphia 79 67 .541 4 Lost 2
St. Louis 78 67 .537 4.5 Lost 0

(updated 9.11.2008 at 6:27 AM CDT)

Though tied with the Phillies, we can still rightfully claim second, even if we're sharing it. The thing that will be interesting by weekend's end, is that Phillies and the Brewers now open a series in Philadelphia tonight.

Anyway, let's check in on the play off odds to see what dropping a game in the elimination column, but going from fourth to second in the wildcard race did for us:

Report Wild Card
BPro Unadjusted
BPro Schedule Adjusted
Cool Standings
SCS Weighted
SCS 50/50

We're up about 1% across the board and then about 1.5% in BPro's Schedule Adjusted. According to the stats, things keep looking up for October baseball, but it still won't be any easy road. For those of you who don't click and look at the other odds, the Astros are still actually a few fractions of percentage points behind the Phillies in all the calculations, do with that what you will.

Here's a quick look at who we're rooting against today:

Next Game

Milwaukee Brewers
@ Philadelphia Phillies

Thursday, Sep 11, 2008, 6:05 PM CDT
Citizens Bank Park

Ben Sheets vs Jamie Moyer

Mostly clear. Winds blowing from right to left field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game Time temperature: Around 75.

Complete Coverage >

Next Game

Chicago Cubs
@ St. Louis Cardinals

Thursday, Sep 11, 2008, 7:15 PM CDT
Busch Stadium

Rich Harden vs Todd Wellemeyer

Partly cloudy with a 50-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing in from center field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game Time temperature: Around 75.

Complete Coverage >

1) We can't afford Brewer's victories until they are no longer the team to beat in the NL Wild Card race. I have Ben Sheets on my fantasy team, so ideally he'll lose on the strength of Gagne, et al., blowing his complete game no hitter that involved about 15 Ks and no walks, but so long as the Brewers lose, I don't care what happens.

2) Hopefully Harden is fully rested and ready to go and ready to push St. Louis' hopes of reentering this race down the drain -- it's just too crowded at the top right now.

So there you go. Be safe, buy water and peanut college career has proven that one can subsist of peanut butter for entirely too long. If you're on the coast, go catch a few tasty waves before you evacuate.