I need to preface this with: I'm not 100% that the DIPS ERA I'm about to report is perfect. I am still waiting on a data set from 2008 that I purchased to help me correct some possible differences in batted ball results from the 2006 data set I was able to find online. However, I don't expect that margin of error to be more than 3 runs, which over 150 IP (where Roy Oswalt is now) is only a difference of is a +/- .198 ERA points. So you can keep that in mind as you look at this.
Using the method that I outlined in Baseball Knowledge 201: DIPS > ERA, and data obtained from FanGraphs.com (it's linked below), I broke down Roy's batted ball data to correct for a lower line-drive rate and his slightly inflated HR/FB rate. I'm uploading a spread sheet that you can play around with that has all the information and calculations I performed. All the nitty gritty of the math is on the there. Anyone with a firmer grasp of the Base Runs formula, please feel free to chime in on where I screwed up -- if I did (crosses fingers).
The result was surprising to me, at first. Using the DIPS 3.0 methodology, I determined that Roy Oswalt owns a DIPS ERA of 4.85. My jaw dropped and I went back over all the math and the spread sheet formulas about 10 different times when I saw that. I recalculated the batted ball averages and read every article I could find on Base Runs. I was left with the same number. Then it occurred to me that I should stop disbelieving and start hypothesizing.
- They have the second best team RZR (click if you're unfamiliar with RZR)
- They have the best infield RZR.
- They are slightly below average in outfield RZR, but Bourn and Pence are the cream of the crop in the respective positions for RZR. So we basically have a 2/3 of an stellar outfield; with Bourn probably taking at least 1/12 of Carlos Lee's territory.
- Roy Oswalt's In-field fly percentage is down (6% compared to a career rate of 11%).
- Roy Oswalt's LOB% is also well below his career levels (72.8% to 76.5%)