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Houston Astros : Season 1/3 Over

Before last nights game, the Astros had completed exactly 1/3 of their regular season with a 30-24 record. I like to mess with projected stats quite a bit... not that I think they really mean a whole lot, but because they really show how well a player or team has done over a much shorter period of time.

If I were to project the record for the Astros after 1/3 of the season, it would put the Astros on pace for a 90 win season, with 72 losses. So my question to you is... If I asked you right now, whether you could either take the 90 win season, or take a chance at having less than or more than 90 wins at the end of the season... what would you do? Would you take the 90 wins now and hope it's good enough for a post season birth? Or would you take your chances with the rest of the season and possibly have a better or worse record?

In 2007, 90 wins would have been good enough to win both the NL East and Central divisions and would have put a team in a tie for 1st place in the NL west. In the American League, 90 wins, would have been good enough for 2nd place in the Wild Card standings, thus not good enough for a post season birth.

In 2006, 90 wins would have been good enough 1st place in the NL Central and West, and 2nd place in the NL east, but once again, only good enough for T-3rd place in the AL Wild Card.

In 2005, 90 wins would have been good enough for T-1st in the NL East, 2nd in the NL Central and 1st in the NL west which would have at least earned playoff for the wild card. In the AL, 90 wins would have been good enough for 4th in the Wild Card.

So what does that mean? Well, the 1st thing that jumps out at me is that there are some really good teams in the AL, and some really bad teams in the AL... 90 wins just isn't good enough if you're an AL team. But in the National League, 90 wins usually is good enough for at least a wild card birth and will typically at least put you in the running for the division. I guess the Astros should be thankful they are in the National League.

So the question again... would you take 90 wins now? My answer would be a yes. With pitching issues the Astros have, I would be pretty happy to have 90 wins at the end of the season. I think this offense with a good pitching staff would be better than 90 wins, I just don't think that our pitching is good enough to wish for much more. Obviously I can't just get my 90 wins now and go home... but when all things are said and done... If we were in the AL... my answer would probably be different... but we're not so... if 90 wins is what we get... I believe I'll be happy... and I believe we'll be in the post season.