clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Game Hero/WPA, 2 - 5

Adam Everett
  • 1 for 3, but the one was a homer
  • 2 RBI, 1 R
  • Not only was it a homer, it was an 8th inning homer
  • An 8th-inning homer in a tie game, actually
  • Hitting .300 and slugging .550
  • Has as many extra base hits as Berkman and Lee combined
  • So we'll overlook the error.

The WPA contraption says Ensberg, the heart says Wheeler, but logic says Adam Everett.

And since we're all about cold logic here at The Crawfish Boxes, Adam it is.

Ensberg's WPA score seems a little high to me. The software reckons his eight-inning leadoff double the game's third most positive play after Everett's homer and Barrett's double, and his score was helped further by the base he took on the wild pitch from second to third, right before Adam's jack.

While Moberg does deserve credit for doubling, for being aggressive enough to go, and for being smart enough not to get caught, I don't think he should get TOO much credit. If he'd walked and stayed there, Everett still would have provided that sweet two run cushion.

Biggio was having a very nice game, but wow! what a brutal error!

Win Expectancy Chart

click to open larger version in new window

Top Five Astros
Ensberg   0.257
Everett    0.179
Williams   0.160
Lamb   0.094
Lidge   0.092
Bottom Four Astros
Biggio -0.076
Berkman -0.112
Biggio -0.140
Lane -0.141
Top Three Cubs
Jones   0.207
Barrett   0.196
Wuertz   0.149