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julien's baseball blog

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julien's baseball blog takes a look at some Astros prospects.

If you've not read the guy's blog, he is one person looking at things in a different way, and he is, near as I can tell, being absolutely  ignored.

Basically, the guy has an issue with runs-based analysis, and seeks to replace it.  Runs based analysis can be seen in the idea of runs created, where your raw stats are converted into a single figure that attempts to pinpoint the number of runs each player is responsible for.  VORP, WARP, FRAR etc., these are all runs based metrics.

julien is more interested in skills:  how good is your plate discipline?  when you choose to swing, how well do you make contact?  And when you do make contact, how far does the ball go?

These skills are measured by what he calls wal con pow.  Check it out.  You can scan an FAQ here, and keep in mind league averages are as follows:

wal or walk percentage - .100
con or contact percentage - .800
pow or power percentage - .100.

So, with the first guy he looks at, Hunter Pence: good discipline, good to great power, and at least the last two years, not so great at making contact.

julien has also stated that contact percentage is the measure most likely to be translated as a player progresses up the minor league ladder. In other words, players with high contact percentages are going to find it easier to adjust to a promotion than players with low contact percentages. Pence's contact numbers the last two years have not been terrible, just below average, but still, spring rampage notwithstanding, I find this to be a good argument for the "Pence belongs in Round Rock" camp.

Which is, after all, where most reasonable people reside.