After having written a player profile for Baseball Prospectus on Morgan Ensberg back in January, Beyond the Boxscore maven Marc Normandin again turns his attention to Moberg this morning.
This time, it's part of the BTBS positional previews at third base, and Normandin, like our humble selves, remains a believer in Moberg, writing that:
I have no problem envisioning an Ensberg that reaches his 75th percentile PECOTA forecast in 2007, hitting .278/.390/.520.
Normandin has considered, but rejected, the possibility that Morgan's bat--apart from the damage done by his shoulder injury--has slowed down, and points at a high isolated power to show that the power game, despite everything that went wrong, was still there in '06.
And of course, the author salivates at Morgan's "incredible" walk rates.
Normandin looks at a veritable alphabet soup of projection systems, some of which I've never heard of before, and then decides to predict a level of performance for Mo greater than that forecast by any of them. Not to say that Normandin's reasoning is anything but rational, but still, I find that interesting.
If my uncle Jethro tells me that Morgan is gonna get it done this year because he thinks Moberg can still get around on the fastball, and then Normandin tells us that Morgan will play at his 75th percentile PECOTA forecast in '07 because his BIPChart numbers show that he didn't go the other way more than usual in '06, how am I to differentiate between those two statements? Are they not essentially identical?
At some point, it comes down to belief in the player. I believe in Ensberg, and you know what? I think the ever-rational Normandin does, too.