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In an upset of insignificant proportions, neither Garner nor Coop gets a vote.
I had to go back and look to see that I voted Melvin-Piniella-Hurdle. What I do recall is that unlike with the players, I employed no method at all to come up with my choices.
Just shotgunned it, Melvin seemed like a good choice since the D-Backs got outscored, Piniella sounded almost as good, because the Cubs got off to the crappy start, but somehow didn't implode, and Hurdle was the guy at the reins of the runaway sled that was the Rockies.
Sounded good.
Still does.
But right now I'm wondering whether I might not should have whipped up some numbers to try and test whether my intuiton had anything factual to prop it up or not.
First, I deleted the teams who fired a manager during the season, not only because I wasn't in the mood to look for splits, but also because who's gonna give an award to a manager who couldn't even make it through the season?
I think it was Casey Stengel or Leo Durocher or Terry Collins who said that the one-run games can be placed at the feet of the manager. More recent analysis suggests that one-run games are a coinflip, and even out over time.
On this one, I lean toward the old school: the manager should be able to find you a run somewhere, underneath the bench in the dugout, behind the watercooler, someplace. That's his job, that's why they give him the hallowed option of calling for the hit and run.
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What did they win? And what do we expect them to have won? Subtract the two. Positive number is good, negative is bad.
Makes sense.
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Based on this mish-mash, Melvin and Piniella look like two very good picks indeed. Hurdle might have been a little suspect, though (again, just based on this, forget if you can that his team won 14 of 15 down the stretch for a second).
Just from these numbers, looks like Randolph might not have been a bad pick, but considering what we know from the real world, that the Mets choked down the stretch, and Randolph proved himself ineffectual in doing anything at all about it, I think you have to throw that particular pick out the window.
LaGenius did a good job in beating Pythagoras, but how about Manny Acta? The peripherals are there, and weren't the Nationals gonna be the worst team in history, back in April? Turns out they didn't even finish last, and they were still playing hard down the stretch, as Randolph's Mets found out. Could you really give it to Acta over Hurdle?
Probably not.
Is anyone surprised that Charlie Manuel had the worst one-run record in baseball?
I didn't think so.
I certainly don't regret leaving him off my ballot.
On the junior side, check out Francona; the only thing he did right was win a fucking championship.