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Minor League Equivalencies

In keeping with prognostication theme that our stories and our polls seem to have taken on this week, thought I might introduce Jeff Sackmann's Minor League Equivalencies.  The explanation in a nutshell tells us that through a series of derived multipliers, they are able to "translate" the statistics of Hunter Pence at Corpus Christi, let's say, into a hypothetical Hunter Pence at Houston.

Jeff--who's of course also behind the Brew Crew Ball blog--goes on to note that


  1. They are park-adjusted for the minor league park
  2. MLEs are adjusted for league in addition to level
  3. These are adjusted for major league park as well  I used Patriot's park factors: http://gosu02.tripod.com/id103.html 4. The threshholds for inclusion are 20 IP for pitchers, 50 AB for batters.

To keep the numbers from overwhelming the post, I've condensed the numbers Mr. Sackmann provided me with, keeping the players to those with 1) still in the organization and with either 2) a chance of seeing major league time in '07 or 3) a slot in the orgnization's long range plans.

I also dropped some less essential stats, skipping things like GIDP's and HBP's, combining doubles and triples into extra base hits, stuff like that.

If you want the whole nine yards, I've uploaded the entire thing at http://images.crawfishboxes.com/images/admin/HOU_mles_full.html.

Otherwise, I'll start with Round Rock hitters here, with the rest below the fold.:

Round Rock Batting MLEs
Player Age AB H XBH HR BB K BA OBP SLG OPS
Brooks Conrad 26 529 128 66 19 40 140 .242 .295 .461 .756
Hector Gimenez 23 271 65 13 6 16 44 .240 .283 .332 .615
Charlton Jimerson 26 468 105 41 13 17 196 .224 .256 .376 .632
Humberto Quintero 26 295 78 23 3 14 52 .264 .306 .366 .672

I guess it's important to note that while there is I guess some kind of predictive value to all this, what it REALLY does is tell us what the stats already put into the books by our guys might mean in the larger scheme f things. If there are any numbers that attempt to predict whether or not Hector Gimenez will finally put it all together or whether Hunter Pence will struggle to adjust to the majors, MLE"s certainly are not them.

In the wake of Dex's strong statement the other day, I guess I should note that while these MLE's still see Brooks Conrad as the most talented hitter to have played at AAA last year, they are perhaps not quite so enamored as the recently released PECOTA numbers.

Round Rock Pitching MLEs
Player Age IP H HR BB K BAA OPS WHIP K/9 HR/9
Matt Albers 23 23 30 3 13 23 .318 .946 1.87 9.00 1.17
Ezequiel Astacio 26 87.7 117 19 54 66 .322 .968 1.95 6.77 1.95
Philip Barzilla 27 101.7 131 6 58 65 .315 .823 1.86 5.75 0.53
Travis Driskill 34 60.7 69 10 16 51 .287 .801 1.40 7.56 1.48
Jared Gothreaux 26 138.3 206 29 51 81 .349 .979 1.86 5.27 1.89
Mark McLemore 25 55 60 6 48 46 .279 .826 1.96 7.53 0.98
Jailen Peguero 25 34.7 41 4 23 26 .296 .866 1.84 6.74 1.04
Chris Sampson 28 119.3 134 15 18 59 .283 .747 1.27 4.45 1.13
Corpus Christi Batting MLEs
Player Age AB H XBH HR BB K BA OBP SLG OPS
Josh Anderson 23 560 153 26 2 21 79 .273 .306 .332 .638
Jonathan Ash 23 390 109 23 1 19 40 .279 .325 .351 .676
Josh Bonifay 27 391 89 36 14 28 105 .228 .273 .394 .667
Hunter Pence 23 519 130 53 21 45 119 .250 .310 .445 .755
Tike Redman 29 101 28 3 1 12 7 .277 .360 .327 .686
Wade Robinson 25 90 20 3 1 1 17 .222 .228 .289 .517
Mark Saccomanno 26 295 66 30 15 18 92 .224 .269 .434 .703
Corpus Christi Pitching MLEs
Player Age IP H HR BB K BAA OPS WHIP K/9 HR/9
Matt Albers 23 109 124 6 69 76 .288 .820 1.77 6.28 0.50
Chance Douglass 22 147.3 186 21 83 81 .313 .907 1.83 4.95 1.28
Paul Estrada 23 83.7 78 14 57 107 .249 .801 1.61 11.51 1.51
Juan Gutierrez 22 97.3 124 16 51 84 .315 .913 1.80 7.77 1.48
Troy Patton 20 42 61 8 19 30 .349 .979 1.90 6.43 1.71
Jailen Peguero 25 35 23 0 23 38 .186 .595 1.31 9.77 0.00