In keeping with prognostication theme that our stories and our polls seem to have taken on this week, thought I might introduce Jeff Sackmann's Minor League Equivalencies. The explanation in a nutshell tells us that through a series of derived multipliers, they are able to "translate" the statistics of Hunter Pence at Corpus Christi, let's say, into a hypothetical Hunter Pence at Houston.
Jeff--who's of course also behind the Brew Crew Ball blog--goes on to note that
- They are park-adjusted for the minor league park
- MLEs are adjusted for league in addition to level
- These are adjusted for major league park as well I used Patriot's park factors: http://gosu02.tripod.com/id103.html 4. The threshholds for inclusion are 20 IP for pitchers, 50 AB for batters.
To keep the numbers from overwhelming the post, I've condensed the numbers Mr. Sackmann provided me with, keeping the players to those with 1) still in the organization and with either 2) a chance of seeing major league time in '07 or 3) a slot in the orgnization's long range plans.
I also dropped some less essential stats, skipping things like GIDP's and HBP's, combining doubles and triples into extra base hits, stuff like that.
If you want the whole nine yards, I've uploaded the entire thing at http://images.crawfishboxes.com/images/admin/HOU_mles_full.html.
Otherwise, I'll start with Round Rock hitters here, with the rest below the fold.:
|Round Rock Batting MLEs|
I guess it's important to note that while there is I guess some kind of predictive value to all this, what it REALLY does is tell us what the stats already put into the books by our guys might mean in the larger scheme f things. If there are any numbers that attempt to predict whether or not Hector Gimenez will finally put it all together or whether Hunter Pence will struggle to adjust to the majors, MLE"s certainly are not them.
In the wake of Dex's strong statement the other day, I guess I should note that while these MLE's still see Brooks Conrad as the most talented hitter to have played at AAA last year, they are perhaps not quite so enamored as the recently released PECOTA numbers.
|Round Rock Pitching MLEs|
|Corpus Christi Batting MLEs|
|Corpus Christi Pitching MLEs|