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Matchupo/Game Thread Game # 95 at Cubs

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Roger Clemens Greg Maddux
1 - 3, 2.96 7 - 10, 4.60

My, my, my, another runner at third with no outs stranded. The WPA contraption tells me that a team who gets a runner on third with no outs in the bottom of the ninth in a tie game will win 92% of the time. From that, I infer (perhaps incorrectly) that the odds of a runner at third with no outs in ANY inning being driven in during the inning would be .920.

The Astros are way, way, way, below this number.

As an aside, Preston Wilson has driven in 22 of 46 from third base, regardless of the number of outs. Biggio, 12 of 39. Adam, 14 of 42, and (check this out) Morgan 8 of 47.

Jason was at 6 of 24, Lamb is at 9 of 25, and overall, the team appears to be driving in runners on third at a .334 clip, having done so 135 times out of 404 opportunities. That .334 number of course doesn't correlate with the 92% number expressed above, of course, 'coz the 92 was looking at the entire inning, but you should get some semblance of an idea that the Astros just don't get the job done often enough.

Anyway, jakechap says that last night's game was convincing proof that this team will not make the playoffs. His is a persuasive argument, and I lean in his direction, but I'm not ready to go there just yet. However, if I'm Tim Purpura, maybe I've made a few phone calls, seeing if there might be some interest in a certain 43-year old pitcher.

Oh, and Lance. Can you imagine someone so good that he leads the NL in RBI's with this team? Lance--who by the way has driven in 20 of 35 from third base--continues to lead the league in RBI opportunities cashed in, at just north of 22%, and I swear to God, if Berkman ends up hitting .325, hitting 40 or so shots, and leading the league in RBI's playing for the freaking Astros, he should be MVP, hands down. Fuck Pujols.