Matchup/Game Thread Game # 71 vs. Twins

Brad Radke	Roy Oswalt
5 - 7, 5.83	6 - 3, 3.21

So how about the the new Tom Verducci, in which the usually sensible senior SI writer suggests that, despite his .338 OBP, Jose Reyes might be the best leadoff hitter in the NL?

As counterintuitive postulates go, it ain't superstring theory, but for baseball, it'll do quite nicely. The idea that you should judge your leadoff hitter primarilly by how well he scores runs, while seeming kind of sensible, actually confuses cause and effect in the established order. Traditionally, it has been the leadoff hitter's job to get on, and it has been the third-place and cleanup hitters' job to score him. The first part is measured quite well by OBP, but the second part, with the sabermetricians' de-emphasis of the RBI, and the general idea that RBI's don't correlate with talent all that well, has sort of been floating in limbo.

Verducci wants to give the credit back to the guy who scored the run.

Who does score the most per time on base? Once the guy singles, is scoring a run from there a repeatable skill? Considering that Jose Reyes gets to trot home quite a bit after Wright or Delgado hit another jack, I'm not sure how valid any of this is. Certainly Reyes isn't teaching Wright his plate discipline . . .

But even if there is something to this idea, is it best measured as runs per time on base, or as runs per plate appearance?

Since I look at everything through Astros-colored glasses, I thought I'd take a look at this.

First thing I did was see who does well on the Astros in this Runs/Time On Base thang:

Runs Per Time On Base

Astro	OBP	Times On   Base	Runs	Runs/ TOB
Wandy Rodriguez	.107	3	4	1.333
Orlando Palmeiro	.262	16	9	.563
Willy Taveras	.319	85	38	.447
Mike Lamb	.386	56	25	.446
Jason Lane	.345	81	33	.407
Craig Biggio	.342	96	38	.396
Chris Burke	.395	51	20	.392
Morgan Ensberg	.384	106	41	.387
Lance Berkman	.393	107	37	.346
Adam Everett	.284	66	22	.333
Preston Wilson	.312	86	27	.314
Eric Munson	.303	23	6	.261
Andy Pettitte	.133	5	1	.200
Brad Ausmus	.359	80	17	.213
Eric Bruntlett	.369	31	6	.194
Roy Oswalt	.188	7	1	.143
Taylor Buchholz	.040	1	0	.000
Fernando Nieve	.235	5	0	.000
Brandon Backe	.333	1	0	.000

Well. Wandy's a monster. If the rest of Houston's players could only score one and a third runs every time they got on base, we'd be set.

Actually, what's going on there is that I figured times on base as most would: by adding hits and walks and hit by pitches. I guess what happened is that Wandy reached on an error one time and scored then, too. Does anybody remember the play?

But more to the point, check out Willy. He's not scoring half the time when he gets on, like Reyes, but he does lead regulars on the team.

What happens when we look at Runs Scored per plate appearance ?

Runs Per Plate Appearance

Astro	TPA	R	R/PA
Mike Lamb	146	25	.171
Chris Burke	129	20	.155
Morgan Ensberg	276	41	.149
Orlando Palmeiro	62	9	.145
Willy Taveras	265	38	.143
Jason Lane	234	33	.141
Lance Berkman	272	37	.136
Craig Biggio	282	38	.135
Wandy Rodriguez	33	4	.121
Preston Wilson	276	27	.098
Adam Everett	231	22	.095
Eric Munson	76	6	.079
Brad Ausmus	224	17	.076
Eric Bruntlett	85	6	.071
Andy Pettitte	34	1	.029
Roy Oswalt	38	1	.026

Of course when you figure OBP into it, Burke is going to rise and Willy's gonna drop. but have you noticed that under either system, Willy scores runs at a better rate than Biggio?

I don't know. I think we're basically looking at an expression of RBI ability. Maybe Taveras has some small ability over Biggio (and even here I doubt), but both score more times than Berkman because (when he doesn't homer) Berkman has been relying on Wilson and Lane to drive him in, whereas Willy and Bidge have had Lance.

  . . .

OK. I've looked at it, I considered this idea, and yes, I think it is bullshit. I believe I'll dance with who brung me, as they say in Texas. Leadoff guys get on, run producers drive them in; the causality does not flow backward.

But before I put this to bed, I took a look around the league to see what other leadoff-type guys (in theory or in practice) were doing. Just for fun, I put their batting average when leading off.

runs per plate appearance leaguewide^*

player	# 1 avg	r/pa
ramirez, fl	.252	.186
reyes, nym	.273	.176
soriano, was	.308	.168
furcal, lad	.252	.164
rollins, phi	.260	.163
eckstein, stl	.322	.143
taveras, hou	.205	.143
biggio, hou	.277	.135
*done up viva el birdos style!

I know that I'm passing on an opportunity to make a case that Taveras has done his job as well as Eckstein has done his, but while the Astros are always first in my heart, the truth has its own imperative. Eckstein has the .322 batting average out of the leadoff slot, and the .383 OBP overall. Taveras has had a little bit better luck, that's all.