I didn't run a complete WPA, but I looked at some of the situations in what was after all a comparatively simple game, and the Ausmus single to drive in Lamb and Berkman is by far the biggest play, so big that it overshadows everything else, including both the seven innings of shutout ball thrown up by Zambrano, and the wriggle job performed by Borkowski after being confronted with a leadoff triple.
Jones' homer was not bigger. Bynum's triple was not bigger. And certainly neither the Barrett sacfly nor the Taveras groundout RBI were bigger.
And although you have to discount for the Pierre stolen bases Bradley allowed, if you factor in the fact that Nieve surely had some role in the pilfered bases, and the fact that Pierre never did score, they just weren't influential enough to tear the prize from Ausmus, who was, you must admit, pretty fucking clutch.
Also, what is this with Tony Womack sacrificing with a (fast!) man on second as the third batter of the game? Needless to say, the play benefited the Astros, almost as much as the run (when it scored) did the Cubs. Thanks Dusty!
And why is Tony Womack batting third anyway?
Winners of eight of ten and four straight, with the pathetic Royals up next. This is what we call being in the rocking chair. St. Louis (losers of 10 of 18) and Cincinnati (at the wrong end of five of six) must needs pay attention.