Probabilistic Model of Range II: Season of the Witch

Before the Winter Meetings, before Brandon Backe and Russ Springer and Andy Pettitte and Jon Garland and Taylor Buchholz, I had written a post looking at the Probabilistic Model of Range for Houston infielders.

And we saw that both Adam Everett and Morgan Ensberg scored very high in this defensive metric, while Lance and Chris Burke was somewhere around average. Only Craig Biggio and Mike Lamb--as we might have expected--scored very low. Certainly, infield defense was a strength of Houston's in 2006, and the PMR system very roughly confirmed that.

Actually, the way it turns out, Pinto's PMR system fingers Houston as having the best ground ball defense in the majors.

Flyball defense, however, was a different story. Pinto found that Houston's "air" defense was third-worst in the majors. While flyballs the way Pinto looked at them included infield pops and pop bunts, for the most part, this reflects poorly on our outfield.

Which, sadly, makes some sense. Taveras is good to very good and Lane is average to a bit better than that, but after that it falls off. Think Luke Scott and Chris Burke in left, think Chris Burke in center, think Preston Wilson, and even Orlando Palmeiro.

What had gotten me pointed in the direction of this PMR stuff in the first place was my insistence that statistical data connect in some meaningful fashion with the real world. And certainly, Manny Ramirez at the bottom of the list in left-field makes all kinds of sense given what we know about baseball, both here on Planet Earth, and on Planet Manny.

Interesting to look at Luke Scott at slightly better than expected, and at Carlos Lee, barely ahead of Ramirez. I think that us Astrofans can agree that Luke--as wonderful as he showed himself to be with the bat in '06--looked a little less than comfortable in left field last year. So we've got something of a discrepancy, with the PMR placing Luke a little higher than what we might have thought based on more empirical evidence. I might suggest that this is Minute Maid's tiny left field skewing things. Luke is overrated in the system, because it's so very easy to patrol the territory.More balls that go into Minute Maid's left field are playable; therefore Luke makes more plays, percentagewise

Which is why Carlos Lee occupying the nether regions of this list shouldn't bother us all that much. It's much easier to play left in Houston than it is in Arlington.

Kind of surprised at Preston. I knew he was slow 'cause of the ruined knees, but I would have figured him league average.

The inside-the-park homerun he allowed in the ALDS notwithstanding, I had always understood Torii Hunter to be a very good defensive centerfielder. But then again, I don't watch AL ball, so maybe there's a reason for Hunter's negative rating.

Remembering how Freel had robbed us often during the year, I'm not at all surprised to see him so high on the list.

I think I can agree that Edmonds and Jones ain't what they were.

Ever since he threw three Cubs out at the plate in three days in early 2005, the word has been out that Willy T had an arm that was both strong and accurate. But the poor decisions and the bad routes kind of bit hm in the ass. We saw less of that stuff in 2006, to the point where (if you can believe this PMR junk), he now plays a better center than most Gold Glove winners. Willy's style is so flashy that I am sure if his bat allows him to stay in the league (and the 'Stros don't trade him), he will become Houston's first Gold Glove from the outfield since Cesar Cedeño.

I will again call myself surprised at Jason Lane's ranking. Having watched him play, I will characterize him as an above average rightfielder, with good if not great range, a plus arm, and good athleticism. Lane's best attribute is probably his arm, and PMR isn't taking that into account, but still . . . .