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WPA (A Slightly Different One)

Win Expectancy Charts
First Nine Innings --click to open larger version in new window
First Nine Innings
Second Nine Innings-- click to open larger version in new window
Second Nine Innings
Top Five Astros
Wheeler   0.426
Clemens    0.418*
Ausmus   0.382
Burke   0.365
Lidge   0.284
Bottom Four Astros
Vizcaino -0.272
Backe -0.288
Lane -0.292
Ensberg -0.339
Top Three Braves
Brower   0.426
Thomson   0.284
Reitsma   0.284
*(0.487 pitching, -0.069 batting)
(-0.212 batting, -0.060 fielding)
(-0.274 pitching, -0.014 batting)

So I had already logged the game, and finished the chart for the first nine innings when I read Pascal's post about the WPA chart that had been posted at Hardball Times. Since I was more than halfway done, I went ahead and finished.

My numbers look a little different, and I assume that's because Glassko is using the Chris Shea numbers, whereas I've been using the spreadsheet from Baseball Graphs. It may also have something to do with how we each handled the Jose Vizcaino error in the eighteenth; I saddled Vizcaino with the full -0.60 demerit, and let Clemens off scot free on it.

Wheeler still is shown at the top of the list, but Clemens is second (and actually had the higher pitching score, as the thing reduced his score overall for the -0.069 he contributed with his bat). That kind of rings true, too.

Clemens struck out more batters than Wheeler, and walked fewer.

Glassko was also talking about how McCann's underwhelming performance, and in logging the game, it was really reinforced to me how poorly he played. He not only came up empty, he came up empty in big situations, and the machine in my employ calls him unquestionably the least valuable Brave, sixty negative points below even Farnsworth.

Speaking of whom, has anyone yet tied together the pivotal role that Farnsworth had in this game, and the role he played in the last epic single game playoff collapse, in the Steve Bartman game? 'Cause it was Farnsworth who gave up the huge eighth inning double to Marc Mordecai that sealed the Cubs' fate in that one, I've recently realized.