Link

I dug into a story I wrote from last year's general meetings concerning the trade of Brad Lidge to the Phillies. You want to talk about luck playing a factor in a baseball season? Take this: The Phillies had a unique advantage in the Lidge sweepstakes, because the Astros' new GM, Ed Wade, ran the Phillies from 1998 through 2005. He knew outfielder Michael Bourn, and he valued him much more than anyone else did. Bourn OPSed a horrendous .588 for the Astros this past year.

The Mets were interested in Lidge at the time, as a setup man for Lidge's Astros buddy Billy Wagner, but Wade wanted a package headed by either Carlos Gomez or Fernando Martinez. The Mets couldn't do that, because they very likely knew at that point that Gomez would be needed to acquire Johan Santana, and they weren't going to give up Martinez for someone they perceived as a setup man; they wouldn't even trade Martinez for Santana. Even Gomez, somewhat of a disappointment for the Twins, OPSed .656.

So the Phillies received a circumstantial discount, influenced by something entirely out of their control: Astros owner Drayton McLane's decision to hire Wade.

Projected at least, by the same guy as before.

I haven't looked up his contract status. The web site linked has him a free agent with an option (don't know if it's a team or player option).

I'm not sure if the Astros would let Brocail go as a FA. If the rumors are true that we turned down a trade for him at the deadline and even after, and given our rush to the finish, Ed Wade probably thinks we're close.

This blog has spent some time reverse-engineering the Elias rankings, Detroit Tigers Thoughts. Based on his formula, Mark Loretta and Randy Wolf would qualify as Type B free agents, entitling the Astros to one extra compensation round draft pick if they are offered arbitration and sign elsewhere. Loretta was a type B free agent last year. (This is from memory, correct me if I'm wrong.)

I think that's the sum total of Astros possible free agents who would qualify for compensation.

Kyle Lohse somehow qualifies for type A status under these rankings, which means the Cardinals will get two picks for him if he leaves. Hopefully they'll sign him to a bad contract.

Ryan Dempster is a name I've heard thrown around as a possible Astros target, but I can't find his name on the list. Not sure if that's the result of an oversight, or what.

One, tossed off sentence in the latest column from Tracy Ringolsby of the Rocky Mountain News,

Mark Cuban's bid to buy the Cubs reportedly is $1.3 billion. Other franchises that are speculated to be available at the right price are St. Louis, Houston and Seattle.

I'm not very familiar with Ringolsby, but I think he's viewed as a credible reporter. My thought is that while it's probably not likely that the Astros are being shopped, McLane is probably willing to listen. Notice Ringolsby just says there's speculation that they may be available.

Drayton McLane's wikipedia page lists his age at 72 this year. He bought the team in 1992 for $115 million (NY Times article) and if I remember the last Forbes valuations correctly, the team could probably be sold for about four times that amount now. I'm not sure that I've ever read anything that talked about his family's involvement with the management of the team, so I don't know if there is an interest in continuing his ownership on a long-term basis. I wonder how the fact that the team will almost certainly finish this year having missed the playoffs for 3 years in a row will affect McLane?

My natural assumption is that the group that owns the Round Rock and Corpus Christi minor league franchises might be interested if there is a change to be made. I'm not sure how Nolan Ryan's current involvement with the Rangers might affect that possibility. If that's not practicable, there are plenty of wealthy folks out there who'd love to own a team. Maybe if Cuban gets rebuffed by the Cubs, he might look down the road to Houston?

Anyway, it's fun to speculate about baseless rumors. What else is the internet good for?

In his column debunking Miggy rumors, Ken Rosenthal has this to say,

The Astros have had "absolutely no (trade) dialogue about Miguel," one major-league source says, refuting an ESPN.com report that said the team was discussing a Tejada trade with the Red Sox.

The team's only discussions about Tejada, the source says, involve his long-term position. Tejada, 34, eventually will need to move to third base, but the Astros have a strong third-base prospect at Class AA, Chris Johnson.

Since this the first time I've read anyone call any Astros position prospect in the minors "strong," I'm curious. Who is Chris Johnson and does Ken Rosenthal smoke crack? Here's his stat line. Numbers look pretty decent, but I don't know what they're projected to translate into at the major league level. By my calculation he's 23 years old, which I think is a little old for a prospect at AA, but then again, all of our prospects are old it seems.

Anyone seen him, or heard of him before?

Also, what long-term plans for Tejada. Please don't tell me Ed Wade plans to re-sign him, assuming he doesn't request a trade in the off season.

(Updated link to stats)

Ken Rosenthal has an article detailing the Sox woes with Manny and includes the fact that they can't find a trade partner for him b/c of the problem of getting anything in return and Manny is crazy. Nobody has mentioned the Astros that I'm aware of, and they're not likely to, because we're so far out of contention.

Manny's contract expires after this season and there are consecutive one-year team options at $20M per season.

Carlos Lee, while not Manny's equivalent as a hitter is probably solidly in the next level down. He's signed for 4 more seasons after this one, at $18.5M per year (I think). Both are defensively challenged left fielders, but Manny is probably a better defender than Carlos.

Both Carlos and Manny would have to approve a trade. Carlos has a no-trade clause and Manny has 10-5 rights. Manny might require some kind of guarantee or extension.

Carlos would have to want to go somewhere if he's to be traded, but the defending World Series champs is probably the best baseball situation he could hope for.

What would it buy the Astros? We would regain payroll flexibility and control whether we want to spend roughly $20M over the next couple of years for a defensive liability. We would have to put up with Manny. I don't think the Red Sox would throw in anything else for us to take Manny, but perhaps we could send a major league player and get a minor league piece in return. (Boston is looking for help at SS; throw in Miggy and make it a blockbuster?)

This will almost certainly NOT happen. It would require the approval of two players, one of whom is crazy. It would require Drayton to admit he screwed up with his prized acquisition of Carlos Lee. The Astros would get Manny in return, which would fill the hole in the lineup for the next couple years, but would also get his temperament. You lose intangibles of clubhouse goodwill and fan approval.

Why I like it - Carlos Lee is a very good hitter, but he's overpaid relative to his production and that disparity will continue to get worse over the next four years. Say we guarantee Manny's remaining years, we trade 4 more years for 2 more years. Maybe that makes it easier to pursue 2 starting pitchers in the offseason.

What do you think?

Astros in serious talks about Padres lefty Wolf

The Houston Astros are engaged in serious discussions to acquire veteran left-hander Randy Wolf of the San Diego Padres.

Wolf, 31, is 6-10 with a 4.74 ERA this season. He began his career with the Philadelphia Phillies -- the former employer of Ed Wade, the current general manager for the Houston Astros.

Also, the Astros activated Humberto Quintero and option J.R. Towles back to AAA

Dave Borkowski was DFA'd

I'm sure most people around here are aware of BaseballProspectus.com, but I noticed that this week they're posting all their articles for free. One of the reasons I enjoy my subscription is for Will Carroll's injury updates. He has tons of sources and has spent a lot of time digging into the details of why injuries happen and how long it takes to rehabilitate them. Here's his take on Oswalt:

Roy Oswalt (30 DXL)
What the Astros are saying and what the medical information tells us about Oswalt are two different things. Oswalt was responsible for trying to pitch through what was thought to be just a mild hip strain, but beyond this muscle injury, Oswalt also has a disc problem in his lower back that's causing some radiating pain down into his leg. Cecil Cooper continues to give blank quotes about Oswalt getting on the mound, but this one is going to take longer than most are saying. Oswalt always pitches—and pitches well—through injury, but when he's shut down, that means that it's serious enough that the medical staff is, as one put it, "blocking the exits." Look for Oswalt to push to come back early, and with the Astros insisting that they're not out of the race, they'll probably let him. Considering how bad he looked in his last one-inning stint, that's not going to be pretty.

Fausto Carmona (60 DXL)
For some idea on how long just a hip adductor strain can keep someone out, the Astros need only look to Carmona. He's finally back on a mound after nearly two months on the shelf. Carmona had a mild setback along the way, though the Indians record has guided their pace as well. Carmona will throw on the side Monday in Anaheim in front of Eric Wedge and Lonnie Soloff after his rehab start went well over the weekend. He could be back in the rotation immediately, which would slot him in Friday, or given his performance at Double-A, they could elect to give him one more minor league start. One observer at that game in Akron said that Carmona didn't look to be pitching much, just trying to get in his work. We'll have a solid idea by this time tomorrow. Carmona likely won't get many wins, but he has a chance to put in 9-10 starts before the end of the season, returning some value to those that drafted him high.

Check out BP and the rest of the article.

Pence jumps back to the 2 spot and Tejada drops to 5. Berkman and Lee at 3 and 4 respectively.

http://blogs.chron.com/unofficialscorer/2008/06/astros_make_major_lineup_chang.html

Random manager quote generator-speak from Cecil Cooper regarding the change:

"I think they're all pretty much interchangeable," said Cecil Cooper, who pulls the trigger on the move following a stretch of scoring 40 runs in 13 games. "They've all hit 5, 4, 3. Except for Lance having a little bit higher on-base percentage; that's the only difference."

Following the last shake-up, the Astros embarked on a 25-game stretch of going 18-7 and hitting .280, averaging 5.7 runs per game.

"It was just a change; sometimes you have to change things," Cooper said.
"Maybe we'll get jump-started again."

one of two managers fined for slow game play ... not for poor managerial decisions.

I kid you not. This is kinda stupid in my opinion. Gardenhire of the Twins was also fined, which I think is a little strange, because I thought I read an article after these changes were pushed out saying that the Twins played some of the quickest games in the league.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-speedupfines&prov=ap&type=lgns