The Astros have a 53% chance of winning 83 games in 2009

by Stephen Higdon on Jan 11, 2009 5:14 AM CST

I was inspired to get fancy by BtB and plugged the Astros WAR Projection Project into a binomial distribution function to determine what the probability was that the Astros actually hit the mark our input projected. The actual probability was .531, so I understated the probability, slightly, in...