Houston Astros : Lee, Not Happy Batting 5th

by Stros Bro on Mar 12, 2008 7:56 PM CDT in News Comment 8 comments

As seen here, Lee wants to hit 4th in the lineup, and I'm 100% behind Lee in this. He should bat 4th... right behind Berkman, and right in front of Tejada. It's how lineups are supposed to be configured. You put your best hitter 3rd, followed by your 2nd best in the 4 hole... No reason to question tried and tested philosophy. You just do it and don't think about it. If you want to get fancy with the lineup, you might(if your team layout deems it feasible), do something like batting a speed guy 9th with the pitcher 8th(like LaRussa has done multiple times), or switch around lead off hitters to try and spark someone. But you don't put your 2nd best hitter in the 5 hole and your best hitter in the 4 hole... you just don't do it.

Obviously this is just my opinion and I have no where near the baseball experience that Cooper has, but I think Cooper is wrong even tinkering with the idea of Berkman not batting 3rd in front of Lee.

Lee, who hasn't hidden his dislike for the five-hole, playfully blamed his skipper for his hitless day at the plate.

"He blamed me for being 0-for-3 today, for hitting in the five-spot," Cooper said. "I have to go back to the drawing board now. I can't have him going [hitless]."

Lee prefers to hit fourth, and he's expressed as much to his manager. That said, Lee has no intentions to make this an issue in the clubhouse. He'll do what he's asked, even if it means hitting fifth.

I know I've said it before, and I'll probably say it again... at least 3 times... but the lineup should be:

Bourn
Pence
Berkman
Lee
Tejada
Wigginton
Matsui
Towles
Pitcher

The Astros have a very potent lineup this year with at least 5 players who could reasonably hit 20+ home runs this year. The lineup will probably produce runs just about any way you set it up... but in my opinion, my lineup(not only my lineup... many people think this is the best lineup) has the best potential for outcome. Hopefully Cooper will come to this realization as well.

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I'd keep Pence 6th...

but only if Matsui AND Bourn are hitting well and getting on base. Basically, I see Pence as the fill in guy... by that I mean he's the one guy in the lineup I would move around while keeping everyone else as stable as possible.

For example, if Matsui and Bourn are going well, Pence is 6th. If one struggles, the other goes to leadoff and Pence falls in the 2 hole. If Berkman / Lee / Tejada gets a day off, Pence moves up. As a younger player, and as his emotional makeup, I think he'll be able to handle changing more than others.

My lineup that Coop should use when everyone is going well:

Bourn
Matsui
Berkman
Lee
Tejada
Pence
Wigginton
Towles
Pitcher

And that is only because I know Coop won't put the pitcher 8th. In that case, I'd put Matsui 9th, Pence 2 and Wiggy and Towles move up, like so:

Bourn
Pence
Berkman
Lee
Tejada
Wigginton
Towles
Pitcher
Matsui

I think that lineup could do some things. The 9th and 1st spots (Matsui and Bourn) could also be swapped if one is slumping or one is raking.

Anyone want to run the projections? I discount anyone that has Berkman first, like all these did. Plugging Tejada in for Everett should be an interesting increase. Anyway...

Just my two cents...

by TexSkins on Mar 12, 2008 8:54 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Actually...

I found it... here.

I'm using Towles' AA stats because they're more realistic than his torrid September (but not much lower.)

All the others were last year's Yahoo! stats.

And the results... 5.480 max. Not so good because Towles' numbers are so out of this world.

Next idea... average the numbers for the 9 catchers here and use those. They ended up being a .343 OBA and .453 SLG.

New results are: 5.107 with 5.170 as the max.

And I'm an idiot and didn't do the right lineup order the first time. Redoing it and... 5.124. Not bad. An improvement over my last run.

And again, none of the best results are all that great because no one is going to bat Berkman (or Tejada) 1st.

by TexSkins on Mar 12, 2008 9:46 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I like your lineup...

Stros Bros. But if Coop is bound and determined to have two speed guys at the top of the lineup, I would go with TexSkins' proposal, except I would probably bat Pence 5th and Tejada 6th, because of Tejada's GIDP proclivity. I like guaranteeing Berkman a first inning at bat, which happens if he is in the 3-hole. It means he will get more at bats over the season. Because Berkman has the team's best OBP, it will increase the number of times that the 1st inning is not 3-up, 3-down. Plus, Berkman has enough power and hitting ability to drive in runs if the 1 and/or 2 guy get on base. I do not like Tejada at the 3 spot, partly due to his GIDP tendency and partly because of his weaker OBP. I like Lee at the clean up spot, but I am concerned about having two of the biggest GIDP guys in the majors too close together. Therefore, I would separate Lee and Tejada with the speedier Pence (if Pence doesn't bat 2d).

by clack on Mar 12, 2008 10:35 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

i'm not sure you can go wrong

but i do like your thoughts on the matter. one comment though, not that it necessarily changes the analysis, but Tejada and Lee hit into a lot of double plays, because they don't strike out as much as most power hitters. they both are pretty solid contact hitters and more often than not will put the ball in play. that's what makes them such solid run-producers year in and year out. neither of them are high OBP guys, cause they don't take as many walks as a Berkman does, so you WANT them to have guys on base. you just have to live with the occasional GIDP. with 100+ RBI, i think that's something we can stomach. that might be an argument for Tejada batting AFTER Pence though, assuming Pence can reliably get on base and use his speed in front of Miggy.

really though, all four of them are going to hit for average AND power. Berkman should be the high OBP guy, so I think the argument is strong to put him in the 3-hole. Coop would have to do something seriously wrong to manage to keep this lineup from scoring a whole bunch of runs.

by littlevisigoth on Mar 13, 2008 11:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I consider Pence a speed guy ;)

If you put GIDP guys back to back, they would have less chances to GIDP. If the first guy does, then the 2nd guy can possibly only get 1 out ;)

Terrible way to look at it, and I completely get what your saying... just though it was funny

I like Tejada 5th because of his power. He's going to hit a lot of home runs this year and is a #4 hitter in most lineups.

Go 'Stros!

by Stros Bro on Mar 13, 2008 12:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

It is against Conventional Wisdom

But I like the idea of Pence hitting first because of the the better OBP and then Bourn.
I'd like to see;
Pence
Bourn
Berkman
Lee
Tejada
Wigginton
Towles
Pitcher
Matsui

I do agree that Lee should hit 4th though. With Bourn running and Pence on first you would never get a double play which still leaves Berkman and Lee RBI chances.
I know the numbers play out having Berkman and Lee 1 and 2 but I can't go that for off the reservation yet.
Texskins, in your analysis 'redoing it' you have Bourn listed twice leaving Matsui out.

It's the next generation of Astros. Let's see if they can play like the men they are replacing.

by TBurford on Mar 13, 2008 11:11 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

The second Bourn...

or the 9th hitter, was Matsui.

New redo.

by TexSkins on Mar 13, 2008 12:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Coop's latest thoughts....

on batting order. Lee should be happy. Berkman, Lee, Tejada, Pence would be his 3-6 hitters if opening day occurred tomorrow.

by clack on Mar 14, 2008 4:45 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

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