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Around SBN: Bills must alter strategy to make offense work


Post Mortem/WPA

Certainly the game did not begin like the train wreck it would become. The chart below says we had a reasonable chance to win the game sa late as the fifth or sixth inning, but in retrospect of course, it was all over when Pujols hit his jack.

Win Expectancy Chart

click to open larger version in new window

Top Five Astros
Miller   0.007
Burke    0.000
Borkowski   0.000
Lamb   -0.005
Lidge   -0.005
Bottom Four Astros
Biggio -0.057
Berkman -0.057
Lee -0.061
Ausmus -0.141
 
Top Three Cardinals
Pujols   0.176
Edmonds   0.089
Wells   0.088

Gotta love Trever Miller for adding the most to our chances of winning by getting the one guy he was asked to face. Worth all of seven-one thousandths of a victory.

Congratulations, Mr. Miller, you are at the top of the Delta pledge class.

Boxscore.

Kudos to Jason, who made one mistake, and is quickly learning that one mistake is one too many when you wear a Houston uniform.

Mark Loretta: you are being payed to hit the baseball. If you make errors that Adam would not have made (or that dare I say it, Bruntlett would not have), it is OK. No-one is asking you to match the best defensive shortstop in the National League play for play.

But you must hit, you must make a difference with the bat. Seeing eye single aside, your debut has not been auspicious in that regard.

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Notes from two scorecards
Saw the final pair of games in person, and other than the obvious carnage, some miscellaneous things stand out from my scorecards.
  1. Over the past 2 games, Astros hitters were offered 34 first pitch strikes, and swung at only 7 of them. I'm not too sure what that means about how aggressive they are or should be, but I do know that 27 Astros batters looked at called first strikes and started their AB in an 0-1 hole.  That's a helluva advantage to give to major league pitchers.
  2. Carlos Lee may or may not turn out to be the hitter we want him to be, but his baserunning in the past 2 games was pretty awful.  He seems to take a peek at the balls he hits before he leaves the batters box, and then appears to be jogging (maybe its all an appearance) when he runs.  I know he's no speed demon, but when you get nabbed (as he did yesterday) on a two bounce throw from deep shortstop (ball was not hit real hard), then something is amiss.  Apparently it doesn't concern Garner, who sent him on a steal or hit-and-run today and Molina threw him out by three feet.
  3. The umpiring seemed very inconsistent and unpredictable.  I don't think it favored either team, but there were 3 batters who were bailing out of the box and had strikes called on them, the  strike zone seemed to move around randomly all during the games, and several calls down the foul line (fair or foul) were very questionable.  Don't know what this means for the season, if anything, other than there is an allegation that the umps have been told to "tighten" the strike zone this year and are perhaps not sure just how to do that.

by bwhite2323 on Apr 8, 2007 5:24 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i especially noticed
that Lee took a first pitch strike on EVERY at-bat yesterday, seemingly taking all the way.  i'll have to pay more attention to that in the future to see if that's his MO.  pretty lame MO, in my opinion.

on his caught stealing, i don't think it was that bad of a move.  he was dancing off first and Wells was ignoring him.  it was a 3-2 count on Luke, who's a pretty good hitter, and when Wells finally made his move to home Carlos was WAAY off the bag (although not really leaning to 2nd).  Luke whiffed and Molina released the ball in a big hurry.  i'm not sure we should be running on that guy much in the future.

by littlevisigoth on Apr 9, 2007 9:47 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I just think Lee
is not very fast and in the 3 games I've seen so far he doesn't appear to be all that alert or going all out.

 I know he had 19 stolen bases last year but it's hard to believe.  As for having his head in the game, he reminds me disappointingly of Preston Wilson in that regard.

by bwhite2323 on Apr 9, 2007 12:22 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i agree
that he's probably just not very fast (for as much as management might protest that he has "deceiving speed").  i'd imagine his stolen bases come from being a pretty heady player though.  in this instance, Wells was ignoring him and he had a good lead.  he got a bad jump and Molina got the ball to 2nd base quick, but on a 3-2 count with the pitcher ignoring you, i'd say his problem is the poor jump and misjudgement vis-a-vis his speed vs. Molina's arm rather than not being a heady baserunner.  hopefully he won't make a similar mistake anytime soon.

by littlevisigoth on Apr 9, 2007 12:53 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

that was ugly
I am glad I gave up my tickets to family.

Well 5 quality starts translated to 1 win. A playoff team should win at least 3 of those. The blowouts make the close games tougher because you realize some nights you will have NO chance and you didn't capitalize the one you could/should have won.

Piss poor performance by everyone but Jason. Two strong outings looks good. But what is up with him making Trev Miller look like Billy Wagner? I would NOT sign a guy to a long-term contract that has lost 5 mph on his fastball suddenly. I could care less if it is working right now or the whole season. That screams, "SOON TO HAVE ARM PROBLEMS" to me. A healthy arm should not lose velocity.

Did anyone see on the post-game how angry Lance got when the reporter said, "it looks like yall haven't had spring training yet". His eyes were strangling him at that point.

And Lee: Could not be more disappointed with Lee than I am right now. Scott is up and sees Lee is taking off and will get gunned so he swipes at a BALL to foul it and K's then Lee still gets gunned down. Dumb move.

 

Jennings 2001 PCL 131.2IP 9.91H/9 0.62HR/9 2.80BB/9 7.52K/9 1.41WHIP Hirsh 2006 PCL 137.1IP 6.16H/9 0.33HR/9 3.34BB/9 7.73K/9 1.06WHIP

by Shamus on Apr 8, 2007 5:57 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Didn't see the game...
Missed the game as these afternoon games are on in the middle of the night here in Korea but looks as if I didn't miss much.

Offense has yet to break out and we have started 1 and 5. Not good but maybe a roadtrip will be a good thing to clear their heads and right the ship.

I read your comment (from another thread) Shamus about people not replying to you. I'm new to the site too and with the time change, I think I'm kind of on this when other people aren't. Just wanted to let you know I appreciate your comments (I read through all the game threads and comments) and even though I don't reply specifically to them, I do read them and appreciate everyone who writes them out!

Rastro, Shamus and eveyone else who comments keep up the great work!

Now, let's go Astros, time to kick some Cub Ass!

SeoulStro

Bagwell for the Hall of Fame!

by SeoulStro on Apr 8, 2007 7:48 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

about jennings
seeing the homer to Pujols again and that pitch was a 83mph sinker. That ain't gonna cut it.
Jennings 2001 PCL 131.2IP 9.91H/9 0.62HR/9 2.80BB/9 7.52K/9 1.41WHIP Hirsh 2006 PCL 137.1IP 6.16H/9 0.33HR/9 3.34BB/9 7.73K/9 1.06WHIP

by Shamus on Apr 9, 2007 2:12 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Just curious
what were the plays that contributed to Ausmus having the lowest WPA of the Astros?  i don't think he did much in the way of good, but i can't recall anything in particular that he screwed up.

on the topic of Brad, i REALLY don't understand why he continues to bat in late innings.  even a straight up pinch hit with Quintero would give me more confidence than letting Brad bat.  Why Lane wouldn't get in the game when we're down with even the slimmest hope of a comeback, is beyond me.

by littlevisigoth on Apr 9, 2007 9:54 AM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Don't know exactly how WPA evaluated it
but Ausmus grounded out 1-3 with 2 out and runners on 1st and 2nd early in the game. I'm guessing that because it was early in the game, the win expectancy had been elevated by getting those runners on and then came back down when he ended the inning with the groundout.

by bwhite2323 on Apr 9, 2007 12:31 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The hitting is bad
But Lidge is worse. Let's not lose his abysmal performance in the shuffle. Offense is definitely our worst problem, but if we manage to get that together, then we face the problem of not having a closer.

by Kian on Apr 9, 2007 9:58 AM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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5 game series vs Nationals @ Nationals Park

Thu 07/09 WP: Joel Hanrahan ( - )
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10 - 11 loss
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