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Around SBN: The Ten Worst Swings Of The 2011 Season

SBN Awards: Rookie of the Year

SBN Awards: Rookie of The Year
Voting 5-3-1
National League 1st 2nd 3rd Pts
Ryan Braun 13 6 2 85
Troy Tulowitzki 7 9 3 65
Hunter Pence - 4 9 21
Kevin Kouzmanoff 1 - - 5
James Loney - 1 1 4
Micah Owings - 1 1 4
Chris Young - - 2 2
Yovani Gallardo - - 2 2
Tim Lincecum - - 1 1
American League 1st 2nd 3rd Pts
Dustin Pedroia 15 4 - 87
Jeremy Guthrie 1 6 2 25
Brian Bannister 2 2 4 20
Daisuke Matsuzaka - 3 5 14
Reggie Willits 1 1 1 9
Delmon Young - 1 3 6
Hideki Okajima - 1 1 4
Rafael Perez - 1 1 4
Travis Buck - - 1 1
Jesse Litsch - - 1 1

Pence was about as solid a third-place finisher as you might have.

But how about second-place finisher Troy Tulowitzki? Only two SBNation bloggers out of 21 voting omitted Tulowitzki from their ballots, and yours truly was one of them.

I had voted Braun-Loney-Pence in that order, and turns out that Loney only got one other vote besides mine.

Given the circumstances, it's natural to wonder whether I'm looking silly here. No-one wants to look like a fool, you know.

Four NL Rookies, ranked by OPS
Rookie PA BA OBP SLG OPS
Braun 492 .324 .37 .634 1.004
Loney 375 .331 .381 .538 .919
Pence 484 .322 .36 .539 .899
Tulo 682 .291 .359 .479 .838

I underestimated Tulowitzki's plate appearances. After using a similar run from Taveras in making my ROY case for Willy T only two years ago, I basically disregarded the facts that Tulo made his club out of Spring Training, then kept the starting job--and actually became a team leader--throughout the long and winding season.

And of course there is the defense for which the man is justly famed. Tulowitzki led NL shortstops in fielding percentage and range factor in his rookie campaign. These are all certainly impressive accomplishments.

Yet looked at another way, I really don't think I made a mistake with Loney. Only 11 NL rookies had as many as 300 plate appearances; if you set the bar at 400 to exclude Loney, the field narrows to just seven.

I obviously erred in not giving Tulo enough credit for his nearly 700 plate appearances. But do we really want to make them a requirement?

Ryan Braun--who had the undeniable OPS--was called up from Nashville in late May, while Loney was called up from Las Vegas almost 3 weeks later. These decisions--made from a bunch of factors having nothing to do with each player's talent--resulted in Braun ending up with something like 110 extra plate appearances, and all the extra counting stats that you might expect. If you think about it, neither player really had much control over that kind of thing.

Now of course Braun had the better rate stats, too, but my point is that keeping Loney out of the discussion seems kind of arbitrary.

Then again, if I reassure myself of the viability of picking Loney, and I want to include Tulo because of the whole season-long thing, I'm left with the necessity of dropping Hunter Pence from my ballot.

So there you have it: my ballot was perfect, after all.

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Maybe I'm a homer...
but I would have voted for Pence as 2d in the ROY.  I would take Tulo over Loney for 3d place. My thought is that Loney plays the least demanding position on the field, which gives Tulo and Pence an advantage over him.  I don't know about playing time cut offs for ROY. Obviously it becomes arbitrary to set a line in the sand. Should Luke Scott have been voted ROY in 2006?  He had Braun-like stats, but his plate appearances were about 100 less than Loney.  I wouldn't eliminate Loney from consideration because of playing time, but I would think it is a knock against him, relative to the other three guys.  It will be interesting to see how the real ROY awards go.

by clack on Nov 5, 2007 6:59 AM CST reply actions  

Pence
had a relatively crappy second half with his rate of doubles, triples and home runs dropping off quite a bit. Batting average, On Base Percentage, etc... just about everything goes down a good bit. He's still good.. just not as good as he was in the first half.
Adam Everett: OPS'ing .900 Since the All Star Break

by entropic soul on Nov 5, 2007 9:13 AM CST reply actions  

I agree...
that Pence's stats dropped in the 2d half after he came back from his injury.  But his season stats are still very good (perhaps better than we will see next season).  I think that illustrates part of the reason to give some weight to # of plate appearances in the voting.  A guy like Loney would probably come back to earth a bit if he played longer...that is just the nature of sample sizes and regression to the mean, etc.  

by clack on Nov 5, 2007 9:50 AM CST up reply actions  

If Pence..
Doesn't get hurt, then I believe he would have been higher in the voting..  I'm good with the first 3(I should be, I voted for them all).
Go 'Stros!

by Stros Bro on Nov 5, 2007 9:43 AM CST reply actions  

Voting
I was the only other person who didn't vote for Tulowitzki, and I actually voted Braun-Pence-Loney, so you weren't totally alone.

by Charlie Wilmoth on Nov 5, 2007 12:35 PM CST reply actions  

I would have
not voted for Loney. Not enough time or exposure.

The day the season ended I would have said Braun,Pence,Tulo. But at that time I did not have to and did not have all the knowledge I do now. If I voted to day I would have voted Tulo, Braun, Pence with serious doubt as to why I put Braun second. Braun had a horrible season defensively and if he had played the other 2 months it would have been on of the worst ever. WHo knows if he gets that straight or is destined for LF.

Tulo is a top tier feilder and his SS comps are top notch with the bat. Clearly he had the best year as a rookie.
I think Pence has the most talent out of the 3.

Make the world a better place. Punch Tim Purpura in the face.

by Shamus on Nov 5, 2007 4:47 PM CST reply actions  

ROY
"...factors having nothing to do with each player's talent"

This is an interesting statement when it comes to ROY. To me, the most intriguing aspect of the ROY vote is not "talent," but rather a young player's ability to turn talent into success in the big leagues. There's so much talent-talk these days, but this is one award that affirms big-league status, rather than bestowing all kinds of crazy "prospect" labels that go unfulfilled.

In other words, the ROY has nothing to do with "talent," or "potential," it has to do with putting together a big league season.

That said, I don't think you can make accommodations for a guy who has half the PAs. Loney certainly had a great season, and will be a great hitter, but the ROY award isn't one of John Sickels' prospect grades with projections and rates and such, it's a mark of how you took your tools to the highest level.

by alamosweet on Nov 6, 2007 8:31 AM CST reply actions  

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