Starter's Statistics

by rastronomicals on Oct 2, 2007 7:52 AM CDT in News

Congratulations to the Colorado Rockies; I found them very easy to root for last night.

Joe In Birmingham saw it the same way, and was surprised he couldn't muster more enthusiasm for the Padres, bolstered as they were by two of our ~~rejects~~ ex-stalwarts. . . .

I don't think any of us hold it personal with Ensberg and Lane, and if you asked us we'd say, sure, we wish 'em all the best.

But when the chips are down, we find ourselves rooting against their team.

How strange.

Average Game Scores for Starters
Through September 30
Pitcher	IP	High Game Score	Average Game Score
Oswalt	204 2/3	78	54.30
Patton	11 2/3	58	52.50
Rodriguez	179 2/3	86	50.39
Backe	29 0/3	64	49.60
Sampson	114 1/3	65	46.53
Williams	190 2/3	75	46.06
Paulino	15 0/3	68	44.67
Albers	93 0/3	73	43.89
Jennings	96 0/3	66	42.61
Gutierrez	16 0/3	57	38.67

High Game Score -	86,	Rodriguez,	on July	6
Low Game Score -	-11,	Jennings,	on July	31
Game High, Strikeouts -	10,	Oswalt,	on June	12
	10,	Oswalt,	on July	30
Game High, Walks -	6,	Oswalt,	on April	13
Game High, IP -	9,	Oswalt,	on April	7
	9,	Rodriguez,	on July	6
High Seasonal K/BB -	3.00,	Gutierrez
High Seasonal K/BB, Min. 90 IP -	2.56,	Oswalt
Low Seasonal Starter's WHIP -	1.03,	Patton
Low Seasonal Starter's WHIP, Min. 90 IP -	1.34,	Sampson
High Seasonal Starter's WHIP -	1.75,	Gutierrez
High Seasonal Starter's WHIP, Min. 90 IP -	1.57,	Albers

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The Two Stooges

"I don't think any of us hold it personal with Ensberg and Lane, and if you asked us we'd say, sure, we wish 'em all the best."

Speak for yourself.

When Ensberg lied about the extent of his injuries to save his starter's role, all this talk of him being an outstanding guy was just chatter.

And for him to speak of the CHARACTER of Jason Lane, well, tell that to Prince Fielder who got spiked when Lane slid into first when he was going to clearly be out.

Both can go mow Tim Purpura's lawn.

by Laurence Simon on Oct 2, 2007 8:54 AM CDT reply actions

team in the NL is the Padres. Not sure why...other than I like the way they have constructed their teams on a pitching/defense type model. So, I was mildly rooting for them. But I agree that it isn't hard to pull for the Rockies, since it has been more than 10 years since they saw the playoffs. I also should have some personal gratitude for the Rockies, since I had 3 Rockies (SS, 3b, RF) on my fantasy team and their surging performance over the last two weeks gave me the championship of my fantasy league.

by clack on Oct 2, 2007 8:58 AM CDT reply actions

I'm with you...

I like the Padres after the Astros... dunno why... maybe because of their camo jerseys. That being said, I was sort of rooting for the Rockies to win as well, just because. Either way it really made me no difference on who does anything for the rest of the baseball season. The Astros aren't in, so I don't really root for anyone else.

Go 'Stros!

by Stros Bro on Oct 2, 2007 12:51 PM CDT up reply actions

Game scores

Since I'm not as familiar with using game scores to rate pitchers, is their any kind of baseline to look at, Rastro? Perhaps what equates to good, bad, average or perhaps league average game scores?

by clack on Oct 2, 2007 9:00 AM CDT reply actions

This might help some...

I found this about the top game scores for the season.

Erik Bedard's 15 K, 3-0 CG SO got 98 points, for tops in the MLB this year. Jon Lieber had a 92 point performance for tops in the NL.

Wandy's 86 point game is tied for 5th in the NL for the season.

And here's ESPN's explanation, at the bottom of that page:

Game Score: Start with 50 points. Add 1 point for each out recorded, (3 points per inning). Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th. Add 1 point for each strikeout. Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed. Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed. Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed. Subtract 1 point for each walk.

As a recent baseline, Peavy had a 31 and Fogg had a 29 last night.

by TexSkins on Oct 2, 2007 9:51 AM CDT up reply actions

Jinx.

ouch

by rastronomicals on Oct 2, 2007 10:15 AM CDT up reply actions

Well

No offense intended if I'm repeating what you already know, but Game Scores were invented by Bill James in the '80's.

According to the wikipedia article http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_score

The game score concept expands on Major League Baseball's official definition of a quality start. MLB defines a quality start as 6 or more innings pitched while allowing 3 or fewer earned runs. The game score system defines a quality start as a game score above 50.

the formula is as follows:

Game Score: Start with 50 points. Add 1 point for each out recorded, (3 points per inning). Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th. Add 1 point for each strikeout. Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed. Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed. Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed. Subtract 1 point for each walk.

ESPN tracks the highest game scores each year at http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/bestgames and from that page we see that the highest Game Score in baseball this year was turned in by Erik Bedard of the Orioles on July 7, when he pitched a complete game shutout, allowing two hits and striking out 15. Bedard's game had a higher score even than Verlander's no-hitter because Verlander walked four and struck out "only" 12.

ESPN also allows you to rank starters based on Average Game Score here, and little surprise, Jake Peavy led the National League in Average Game Score for 2007 with a 62.2

Not sure what League Average Game Score would be, but noting that 166 pitchers made an NL start in 2007, you might then say that Sergio Mitre, who finished 83rd in the league in AGS with a 45.8, had the league's Median Game Score.

ouch

by rastronomicals on Oct 2, 2007 10:14 AM CDT up reply actions

This is kinda related...

according to ESPN's Park Factor, MMP is actually a pitcher's park.

They use the following formula:

Park Factor compares the rate of stats at home vs. the rate of stats on the road.
A rate higher than 1.000 favors the hitter. Below 1.000 favors the pitcher.
PF = ((homeRS + homeRA)(homeG)) / ((roadRS + roadRA)(roadG))

According to that, MMP is slightly up in HRs and 3Bs, but down in hits, Rs, 2Bs and BBs for a factor of .901.

It ranks 25th out of the 30 parks. Last season, it was 12th (1.034), in '05 it was 23rd (.949), in '04 it was 14th (1.004).

I'm not sure what to make of this.

Houston was 24th in runs (723) in '07, 25th (735) in '06, 24th (693) in '05, and 14th (803) in '04.

I just think it's funny that some statistical formula could show that MMP is pitcher friendly.

by TexSkins on Oct 2, 2007 10:11 AM CDT reply actions

yah that's crazy

could it just be that the pitchers who pitched in those 81 games had good or bad days consistenly

by TimStros on Oct 2, 2007 1:01 PM CDT up reply actions

Unrelated

But interesting.

by Danyah on Oct 2, 2007 3:35 PM CDT reply actions

Here's

Deadspin's take. The commenter that said Tony LaRussa had just hired him made me giggle.

by Danyah on Oct 2, 2007 3:39 PM CDT up reply actions

I wondered that too

(about potential incidences when he was here, that is).

I also realized that my comment above is a bit insensitive, so I apologize if it offended anyone. I guess I just see the irony that someone who seemed to enjoy media attention while he was here will now be getting a lot of undoubtedly unenjoyable attention. It really is unfortunate for him, especially since he compounded one mistake with another. I would guess his career in the bigs is over, at least for a few years.

by Danyah on Oct 2, 2007 4:27 PM CDT up reply actions

"I certainly put my job in jeopardy"

No shit, Jim.

It really sucks when you think of people in a certain way, and then it turns out they're not that way at all.

Wonder if any "incidents" will come out that occurred when he was with the Astros. It would make his dismissal--pretty inexplicable at the time--a little more understandable.

ouch

by rastronomicals on Oct 2, 2007 4:12 PM CDT up reply actions

careful

it's an isolated incident and doesn't necessarily encapsulate who he is and what he stands for. without firsthand knowledge of all the facts, if you think the nature of the incident is so egregious to be comfortable with making sweeping judgements about his character, that's your prerogative. you might also want to throw Mr. Pence under the bus while you're at it though.

if he did have a visible (to upper mgmt) alcohol problem, that might explain a little why he was let go, regardless of his track record or regard around the league.

certainly a shame. you hate to see anybody make such a foolish mistake.

by littlevisigoth on Oct 2, 2007 4:34 PM CDT up reply actions

Hmm

I understand the cautionary warning about rushing to judgment--good advice at any juncture--but how are you so sure it's an isolated incident? A close relative of mine was arrested for DUI, and he learned a lot in the training that was part of his sentence. The statement that stuck with him was that most people arrested for DUI have, on average, already committed this offense 400 TIMES before being caught.

My relative said that's just about right. Fortunately, he learned from his mistake. Maybe Hickey will too.

by Danyah on Oct 2, 2007 5:12 PM CDT up reply actions

good point

DUI's are such a funny crime. It carries such a dramatic stigma when somebody is caught or gets in an accident, but it's so widely enabled and ignored by such a large swath of society, particularly in a town like Houston, where you can barely go anywhere without driving.

The leaving the scene of an accident and resisting arrest compound matters for Hickey and certainly don't paint him in a good light, but speaking as somebody that's made a mistake or two myself, I just always feel bad when somebody is judged as a horrible person based on an incident that may or may not actually speak to their true character.

by littlevisigoth on Oct 2, 2007 5:37 PM CDT up reply actions

Well said

No doubt my relative would concur.

by Danyah on Oct 2, 2007 5:41 PM CDT up reply actions

It's Not the DUI That Disappoints, littlevisigoth

I know some people are very rabid about the crime, and I respect that opinion, but I do not myself hold it.

I know that I have committed the crime myself a few times, and while understanding the enormity of a life taken by a drunk driver, I refuse to be a hypocrite about it.

No, my issue is with the resisting arrest part of it. Did you see the picture at Deadspin? Hickey looks like he'd been in a barroom brawl.

Back when everyone was crucifying LaRussa this past spring, I was chill, and the reason is, LaRussa behaved like an adult and co-operated with the authorities, admitting his crime not only after the fact in the morning light, but also at the time of his arrest.

Hickey clearly lacked the maturity to do that.

ouch

by rastronomicals on Oct 2, 2007 6:57 PM CDT up reply actions

I see your point

and I agree. I hadn't actually gone to the link when I made my first response, cause I had heard about the story (just hadn't seen the picture).

I didn't mean to jump on you, and I don't know why I feel the need to get defensive on behalf of people that may actually be total douchebags. Perhaps I'm just trying to deflect some of my own guilt.

Definitely a bizzare incident (now reading the article linked below), and definitely indicative of extremely poor judgement. Hopefully he's properly humbled by this incident and handles all the aftermath with some dignity and can take the steps (maybe 12 of them) to ensure he exercises better judgement in the future.

by littlevisigoth on Oct 3, 2007 10:37 AM CDT up reply actions

More info

for your consideration

by Danyah on Oct 3, 2007 5:19 AM CDT up reply actions

Sad situation...

for Hickey. Since I liked his work while with the Astros, I would like to think he can get a second chance with the team. But it strikes me that TB may be a team which can't afford to give him a second chance. With guys like Dukes, with his legal problems, and Young, with his attitude problems, the Devil Rays may feel the need to have a strict policy with coaches who get in legal trouble...just so that they can maintain credibility in trying to keep discipline among their young players. Any way you look at it, it's too bad.

by clack on Oct 3, 2007 10:35 AM CDT up reply actions

Also of miscellaneous interest

Former Astros appearing in the Colorado-San Diego playoff game: (that I recognized)

Bucholz, Lane, Ensberg, Blum, Brocail

Nice side benefit of Holliady's triple in the 13th - it gave him a 2 for 6 night and put him ahead of Chipper Jones for the NL Batting crown.

Failure is the first necessity for progress.

by bwhite2323 on Oct 2, 2007 5:42 PM CDT reply actions

We should

get Blum back.. he seems to always make it to the playoffs...

Go 'Stros!

by Stros Bro on Oct 3, 2007 9:50 PM CDT up reply actions

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