Here's an interesting thing. One of the best all-around players in Houston Astros history collected just 47 bbWAR in 11 seasons for Houston. That's right, Cesar Cedeno averaged just about 4 WAR per season with Houston, which means he was an average All-Star during that time, per the stats.

Except that he was much, much better than that. Cedeno was one of the best players in the league, combining power with speed and great defense. Why doesn't that show up in his WAR totals?

It does and it doesn't. Only three Astros position players have more total WAR than Cedeno, but his seems low, considering Jeff Bagwell has over 30 more WAR despite playing a less important position. What's going on here?

Well, it goes back to how Baseball Reference calculates their version of Wins Above Replacement. For the fielding component, BBRef uses Total Zone rating, which tries to make comparisons for how many plays a guy "should" have made without having data specifically for that.

That leaves Cedeno at a loss, since he never posted one defensive WAR total above 1.0 in a single season. To put that in perspective, Chris Young led the National League in defensive WAR last season at 2.6. Michael Bourn currently leads the league with 1.3 dWAR through a quarter of the season.

By every measure of him at the time, Cedeno played excellent outfield defense. He won five Gold Gloves in his career. That's not necessarily a great way to judge defensive skill, but beside the Gold Gloves, he had a great defensive reputation. Just look at this takeaway from an interesting article in The Hardball Times:

A sabermetrician will look at Cesar Cedeno, and will see him utterly differently thanks to park and league adjustments and a willingness to cast aside language barriers, off-the-field problems, and preconceived notions of his "potential." That sabermetrician will see a remarkable player who could beat you in innumerable ways. Cedeno could beat you with a single, a double, a home run. He could beat you by stealing a base, beat you by drawing a walk. He could beat you with his stellar outfield play too, with a catch or a throw.

And, yet, we see a very average player in his WAR totals. Let's sub in a guy like Andruw Jones' defensive WAR for Cedeno's. Jones compiled 24 dWAR in his career in the outfield. That's an average of just under 1.5 dWAR per season, which if we give Cedeno over his 11 seasons in Houston, would raise his bbWAR up to 65 instead of 47.

At 65 career WAR, Cedeno jumps to second place on the all-time just, ahead of Craig Biggio and just behind Bagwell. I may not have seen him play, but that feels right to me.

While Clack was taking a deeper look at J.A. Happ I was putting together these better than the rest links for your viewing pleasure.

Beauty of the Game

Beautiful colorization attempt for Willie Mays' catch - h/t reddit - Beyond the Box Score
Awesome!

Not-so-undercover: Luhnow moonlights as gameday usher. " Alyson's Footnotes
By Alyson Footer

Voters may be asked to OK $500M dome, arena plan - Houston Chronicle
by Mike Morris and David Barron

Astrodome spared? Consulting group suggests renovation - MLB - SI.com
Associated Press

The Business of Baseball

Interleague Pushes MLB to Best-Attended Pre-Memorial Day Weekend Ever
By Maury Brown

2012 MLB International Preview - Minor League Ball
By Matt Garrioch

2012-16 Major League Baseball CBA Released to Public
By Maury Brown

Didn't Fit in Another Category

Some Thoughts about Baseball Player Makeup - Minor League Ball
By John Sickels

Farmstros: If the PTBNL is a Royals' 2011 Draft Pick, Part 2
By Mike Tauser

Summary

Remember that 25 inning game Texas had a few years back? How Austin Wood threw 169 pitches in it? Well, a freshman named Austin Dicharry also pitched that game, finishing out with 5 2/3 innings for the Longhorns. As good as he was that season (8-2, 2.28 ERA, 59 Ks, 59 1/3 IP), he basically didn't pitch again until this year.That's a lost season in 2010 and 2011 due to shoulder tendinitis.

Dicharry is healthy now, but still didn't pitch nearly as well as he did in his freshman season. His delivery isn't bad, though he's got a more violent arm action than some of the pitchers we've seen. Of course, the only video I could find was him from 2009, so things might have changed since then.

This season, Dicharry pitched, but not really in high leverage situations. He had a record of 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA in 20 innings, but he also gave up a .321 batting average against and eight of the 25 hits he gave up were doubles. Still, he had 20 Ks in those 20 innings with just five walks, so there is something there.

The problem with Dicharry is his potential. Will he ever pitch like he did as a freshman again? He has shown better control and the same strikeout ability, but will he be over the shoulder problems? Will he be able to pitch in the pros?

I guess you could make an argument either way. Maybe he's the rare college pitcher who wasn't overused before being drafted and can be healthy in the pros. After all, Wood came back from a few years off in the Tigers system to make it all the way to Triple-A. Maybe Dicharry can have a similar spate of success in a professional organization. It'll take a team who's confident they can keep him healthy and take the time to develop him, but I wouldn't be surprised with someone taking a chance on him.

Floor

The injuries mean he may never be totally back. You've seen some of those college relievers never make it past Low A ball and Dicharry may go that route. Otherwise, he could do just what he's doing now, being a bullpen guy who doesn't necessarily pitch in high-pressure situations.

Ceiling

Here's the neat thing. His ceiling could be pretty good. Right now, you don't expect him to be anything more than a big league reliever who may move pretty quickly. But, given time and good health, couldn't he transition into a starting role? If he goes low enough in the draft, a team could take a flier on him and see what he does. The upside is probably low enough to mean he won't be drafted before the late rounds, but there's a chance it could increase after a year or two

Projected Draft Round

I doubt he gets picked before the 20th round and may not get picked at all.

Will he sign?

As a senior, he'll sign unless he wants to do something besides playing pro ball.

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Summary

The angular lefty is our first Longhorn profiled in a class that figures to be smaller than usual by Texas drafting standards. Still, there is plenty to like about Milner from a makeup standpoint. The question is, what is his upside and where will he fit on a big league team?

At 6-foot-2 and 165 pounds, Milner doesn't appear to have the body type to fill out and be an innings eater. He was 155 in high school, so he hasn't exactly put on a bunch of weight at Texas, but he does have a pretty explosive fastball that can touch 94 while sitting in the low 90s.

He also throws an interesting slurve that's got a nice horizontal and vertical break, but mainly works off the fastball. He also is an inverted w guy from what I can tell in the video, in addition to being a dip and drive pitcher. Not good signs for his continued arm success, but that doesn't mean he wouldn't make a nice bullpen option.

With that velocity from the left side, he'd make a great lefty who can transcend the LOOGY label and be used for an entire inning. Heck, he could also be used in a long relief type role, much like he did at Texas. This guy has a great attitude, it seems, and was an underrated part of this Texas staff.

Floor

There's the rub, as the injury risk here outweighs his possible high floor as a polished college arm. But, at the very least, he could be a LOOGY if he stays healthy. If he doesn't add any life to his fastball, he can be counted on to be tough on lefties for his career.

Ceiling

Well, the possibilities here are not quite endless, but they are varied. Who was the last real "long relief" prospect who was developed on his own accord? Mostly, those guys are lapsed starters who get thrown into a role as a bullpen innings eater. But, I think Milner has the chance to be quite versatile, pitching multiple innings and getting up and down a lineup no matter if he's facing righties or lefties. In short, he'd never play for Brad Mills, because he'd drive Millsy crazy with his non-matchupiness.

Projected Draft Round

Don't expect him to go highly, but I could see somewhere in the first ten rounds. It depends on if a team falls in love with the idea of him being a starter consistently.

Will he sign?

Haven't seen any signs either way, but I can't imagine him improving his stock with another year on campus. Probably signs.

Bibliography after the jump

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Summary

In looking at the Rice outfielders I was planning on profiling, it seemed like overkill. We were going to do all three, while none of them may be drafted that highly. Instead, let's go with a Texas pitcher who's coming out of Division II and may turn out to be a quick mover through a system.

Why is that? Because Stephen Johnson is a reliever who throws gas. He's been clocked up to 101 with his four-seamer and it seems he works off that pitch with his breaking stuff. There's some violence to his delivery, which means a move to the bullpen may be in his best interest long-term.

Look at the videos below, though. That weird hitch thing with his elbow just before he extends is just...weird. He recovers well and moves into what appears to be the "Power T" look for his delivery. That's a good sign for his future health and may be how he's avoided injuries after experiencing some elbow discomfort in high school.

If he really can throw 100 and do it consistently out of the bullpen, he can have a pretty long career even if he doesn't develop other stuff. Look at what Kyle Farnsworth has done. It's not assured, but it means he's more than worth a draft pick, maybe as high as the second round.

Floor

Look back at Houston's drafts the past few years and circle the relievers they took who stayed in the bullpen in the pros. How many of them make it two years in the system? How many get released pretty quickly? Drafting a guy as a reliever out of college is just a recipe for a relatively low floor. They just don't always pan out and usually do that quickly.

Ceiling

It depends on how consistent his stuff can be. If he can throw that hard and develop a good slurve as his secondary pitch, Johnson looks like a closer-type bullpen guy. At worst, he'd be a dominating setup man who can use that fastball to blow past the lesser lights in the lineup.

Projected Draft Round

Right now, Baseball America has him going in the second round. He's currently sitting at No. 63 on BA's prospect list and is No. 61 on Keith Law's Top 100.

Will he sign?

I think so, but he is a junior, so a team would have to really convince him to sign. Given that he's a small-school guy and has some concerns over his delivery, I think it's in his best interest to sign now and make hay before he gets hurt.

Bibliography after the jump

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Summary

Ah, the siren song of the workout circuit. Last summer, Mitchell Traver blew people away with his summer workouts, showing 92-95 with his fastball with a good change a hard breaking slider and a giant frame. Traver is 6-foot-7 and 238 pounds.

Unfortunately, he hasn't lived up to what he showed in the offseason, with his fastball falling from 88-92 in most of his starts this season. He's still been good and has been working out more than he did in the past, which helped him drop his body fat quite a bit.

Traver is a pretty classic tall-and-fall guy, with an easy delivery that speeds up towards the end. He's got a high leg kick out of the windup and comes across his body with his leg but not his arm. There are some concerns about his arm motion, but I didn't see anything glaring in the videos below.

There are also questions about his control. Though his high school numbers don't quite bear it out, he's got problems locating the fastball at times and that leads to him being a bit inconsistent. The question then becomes, where does his velocity sit? He's a big kid and not likely to "fill out" much more. He might grow some, but is a thick-bodied type right now, so there's not as much room for projection as with other players at the top of this draft.

He's still likely to be the first Texas high school pitcher drafted, but it may not come early enough to get him out of a commitment to TCU.

Floor

His size and repertoire make him a great candidate for the bullpen down the road if he can't stick in the rotation. That fastball has flashed 96 at times, and may stay there more consistently if he's working out of the 'pen. However, as with most high school pitchers, his floor is lower due to the greater chance for injury.

Ceiling

I like the potential of a guy like this to be an innings eater down the road. He may not be able to be a top-of-the-rotation starter without better stuff than he's flashed to this point, but there's always a chance for those to develop more in the minors. In that, he reminds me more of guys like Jordan Lyles and Ross Seaton than anything.

Projected Draft Round

Third or fourth round seems to be the consensus

Will he sign?

Not unless he goes higher than that. With the new money rules, a team would have to dramatically overspend on him to get him away from a TCU scholarship. I could see him really raising his stock if he goes and pitches for the Horned Frogs for a couple of seasons.

Bibliography after the jump

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