In case you have not heard, the Astros made a trade yesterday. As this is typed, fans are already erecting the bronze statue of Jeff Lunhow outside of Minute Maid Park. New shortstop, new starter, low price. Nothing to be upset about there!

This post is not about that trade.

Quietly, Brian Bogusevic has been one of the best hitters in the Dominican Winter League, or Liga de Beisbol Dominicano. His slash line (BA / OBP / SLG) sits at .317/.446/.500 on December 15 after 120 AB.

The usual caveats apply: Small sample size. Lower level of competition than he typically faces.

Still, Bogusevic's stats compare extremely favorably to some top prospects in the league, including San Francisco's Brandon Belt, the top prospect in their system heading into 2011. And for this, Astros fans should be happy.

This does not necessarily predict greatness for Bogusevic in the big leagues, but there are several positive things to take away.

1. Bogusevic is 3rd in the league in Slugging %, which is partly fueled by his 4 Home Runs, but mostly by his 8 Doubles. Strength can't be taught, so if Bogusevic can keep up a decent pace of doubles with the occasional homer in the majors, he could be an everyday-worthy outfielder for the 2012 Astros
2. Bogusevic is walking. A lot. He leads the league in walks right now. In a league with iffy pitching, the walk rate can not correlate to the majors, but this can only be seen as a hopeful thing for his plate discipline. In the majors so far, Bogusevic is averaging around a 8.5% walk rate, which is fantastic for an inexperienced hitter. If he is learning to be even more selective, that is even better. Obviously, a 22.5% walk rate is not sustainable, but it's a huge jump over his 11%-ish minor league walk rate. Maybe he's learned even more patience.

None of this makes me want to predict a huge 2012 breakout for Bogusevic, but it does interest me enough to want to see him with an everyday role. Bogusevic should be given every chance as a starter in Right or Center Field. The steady improvement he's shown, plus an impressive showing in the Winter Leagues demands it, if only to find out if he's for real.

It's a little late, but here is the results from the TCB Reader Top 30 Prospect list. There were 19 entries into the field with some people ranking 30 prospects and others ranking just a few.

There were some prospects listed on all 19 ballots, but there's also some guys who were listed on just one. To control for the numbers of ballots submitted, I did two things. First of all, I averaged all the scores based on the number of ballots submitted. That way, the average listed is the one for 10, or 5, or 19. 

To make it fair and keep someone like Carlos Quevedo from finishing in the top 3 because he was listed on one ballot with a 7, I also weighted the grades based on how many ballots the players appeared on. To accomplish this, I broke the list up into three sections. I discounted all the players who were only listed on one ballot and then broke the rest of the names up into three sections.

For players who appeared on between 19 to 13 ballots, I weighted their scores by 3, then from 12 to 7 I weighted by 2 and the last group I left on their own, then sorted by the new totals. 

That only caused a problem on two or three of the grades. Telvin Nash and Jack Armstrong could have flip flopped but Nash was listed on more ballots, so he got the tiebreaker. Also, the bottom of the ballot could have turned over, as Dallas Keuchel had the lowest score in the Top 30, but was listed on more ballots than all the ones below him.

Anyways, enough with the hows, let's get to the list. After the jump, I'll have a couple thoughts on how things shook out.

1)  Jonathan Singleton 7.63

2)   Jarred Cosart 7.61

3)   George Springer 7.29

4)   Jonathan Villar 6.00

5)   Domingo Santana 5.44

6)   Paul Clemens 5.33

7)   Ariel Ovando 5.14

8)   Brett Oberholtzer 5.06

9)   Delino Deshields 5.00

10)   Mike Foltynewciz 4.94

11)   Adrian Houser 4.92

12)   Austin Wates 4.69

13)   Telvin Nash 4.31

14)   Jack Armstrong 4.58

15)   Vincent Velasquez 4.00

16)   Chris Wallace 3.83

17)   Jiovanni Mier 3.75

18)   Nicholas Tropeano 3.70

19)   Tanner Bushue 3.67

20)   Kody Hinze 3.58

21)   Jacob Goebbert 3.55

22)   Ross Seaton 3.45

23)   Mike Kvasnicka 3.44

24)   Adam Bailey 3.38

25)   Jonathan Meyer 3.38

26)   Dallas Keuchel 3.27

27)   Dan Adamson 4.00

28)   Kyle Hallock 3.83

29)   Jay Austin 3.75

30)   Josh Zeid 3.67      

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So, I have a few wrap-up type thoughts on our Top 30 podcasts and the list we came up with. Let's move to the bullet points: 

• Adam Bailey deserves to be a C prospect and probably deserves to be listed above Dan Adamson. But, Bailey is only interesting because he hit 16 home runs in Lexington as a 23-year old. You're not going to find many players like that on prospect lists. Bailey did have some success at Corpus Christi, but also featured an unsustainable BABiP and an absolutely terrible walk rate. I still think Adamson has value because he can play center field and has good power, though he had a terrible 2011 season. Bailey is limited by his defense and needs to keep hitting to provide value. Still, he could end up with the upside of a Jacob Goebbert pretty easily with another good season.
• Another pair of prospects that I'm torn on is Dallas Keuchel and Ross Seaton. They showed similar numbers this season, but the difference is that Seaton is a year and a half younger and Keuchel has a slightly better strikeout rate in the past. Both are showing signs they might actually make it to the majors, but it's not looking like either will make a big impact.
• Another pair I wonder about is the third base duo of Jonathan Meyer and MIke Kvasnicka. I didn't love the Kvas pick when the Astros made it and he hasn't shown nearly enough to prove he's got the bat to stick at third. Of course, it's not like Meyer has either. Of the two, Meyer has the age and walk rate edge, but Kvas has really only his draft position. However, Kvas also has the ability to play different positions and can still move back to catcher. It's a thin line and isn't enough to separate them materially, as both are still probably C-level prospects.
• Jordan Scott is going to pop up on some lists, though his numbers weren't entirely compelling. He's not Chase Davidson in that respect, but he is more athletic. He's also got some speed and stolen base ability, but he got ranked No. 14 on Baseball Prospectus' list because of his bat. Like a lot of the prospects above him, he'll get ranked higher because of his potential, not his production.
• If we're talking about players who are closest to the majors, you have to look at Brett Oberholtzer, Paul Clemens and Goebbert. Of those, Clemens probably has the chance to make the most impact, possibly putting up a season like Bud Norris in 2009.
• For those who were asking, I think J.D. Martinez, Jose Altuve and Jimmy Paredes still slot behind the top three on our list. 

After the jump, I've set up a Google form you can use to rank your own Top 30 prospects. Just enter the names and grades you want in the form below and we'll compile all your answers into one list. Let's give it a week and then I'll publish those results along with our list.

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I have seen a comment or two asking for an update on Astros' fall and winter league performance.  Since I was curious to look up those stats for the Dominican, Venezuelan, and Arizona off-season leagues,  it doesn't hurt to expand this to a story.  As most of you know already, off-season league stats should be taken with a grain of salt.  The Arizona Fall League has some top prospects as well as a few suspects.  The Dominican and Venezuelan winter leagues are mixed bags, in terms of the quality of players.  And of course the sample sizes are quite small.  Still, it's nice to see how Astros' prospects are performing in the off-season.

Jose Altuve, Jimmy Paredes, Brian Bogusevic, and Jay Austin are among the hitters who have gotten off to great starts.  Among the pitchers, Sergio Perez also has gotten off to a nice start.  Dallas Keuchel has pitched quite a bit in the Arizona Fall League with some mixed results.  Several of the pitchers have been used as relievers, and the sample sizes are quite small at this point.

Continue reading this post »

At a press conference that is no doubt still going on, the Houston Astros are announcing that they signed both George Springer and Jack Armstrong before the signing deadline tonight. No word yet on the signing bonuses, but they should be pretty good, if the other signings tonight are any indication. UPDATE - Springer signed for $2.525 million, according to @Zoodig through MLB Trade Rumors. Brian McTaggart just tweeted that Armstrong got $750,000 in his deal, which was right around what Austin Wates got last season (and what I totally called for the past week). Springer's deal is also about $500,000 over slot.

In other tangential baseball news, the Pirates signed Texas prepster Josh Bell for a reported $5 million dollars. Bell was the first pick in the second round, despite sending a letter to every team saying he would honor his commitment to the University of Texas. Looks like A&M isn't the only one running away from the Longhorns...bazinga!

That also means Houston did not reach an agreement 14th round pick Gandy Stubblefield, who will head to College Station and play for the Aggies.

No word yet on the contracts each player signed, so what are your best guesses on Springer and Armstrong? Are you surprised either or both got deals done? Has there been a bigger day of Astros news in a while? I know the trades were big, but there have been some big stories compressed all on this Monday. It's a lot to deal with.

The Phillies blog Phoul Ballz is reporting that the Astros will receive Domingo Santana as the fourth and final player from the Hunter Pence trade. If you'll remember, Santana was one of the players on the Lakeland Blue Crabs and the Astros were rumored to have a list of players from that team they could choose.

Santana was certainly the most intriguing name on that list. As a five-tool player, Santana has a chance to rocket up the Astros system. His peformance has not matched his tools yet, but he's still got the potential to be a pretty good player and is much better than just a throw-in.

The bigger question now is: can you make a case that every player in the Hunter Pence trade was better than any of the players in the Michael Bourn trade. I don't think it's a case you would win, but it can certainly be made. That makes me pretty sad.

What do you think? I know OremLK will like this move, as he's been pushing for Santana for a while now. Certainly, he feels like a nice addition to what was already a very nice trade for Houston. Will have more on him in the next day or so.

We talked about this a little on the podcast Sunday night (which will be released sometime soon), but with the signing deadline at midnight tonight, it seemed like a good time for an update.

Houston has a few prospects it seems to still be negotiating with, including first-round pick George Springer, third-round pick Jack Armstrong, 14th round pick Gandy Stubblefield and 25th rounder Billy Flamion. Interestingly, that also feels like the order of likeliness that they'll sign, with Springer being most likely and Flamion being least likely.

Springer has been rumored to be asking for up to $10 million, but that might just be a ploy to drive up his price closer to $3 million. That's probably where I see him ending up when he does sign (if he does sign). With Armstrong, we have a little less info on what it'd take to sign him, but if I had to guess, I think he'll fall around whereAustin Wates did last season or around $750,000.

As Subber10 mentioned in the podcast, word is that Stubblefield has heard the Astros final offer and would rather go to Texas A&M. Flamion also has a pretty firm college commitment to Oregon with all that Nike money. There is a chance Houston signs one of those two, but it will be more about the player's deciding to sign rather than the Astros offering enough money.

We'll keep you updated throughout the day as we hear more on the deadline's happenings.

UPDATE: Per Zachary Levine, the Astros are only negotiating still with Springer, Armstrong and Stubblefield. That means no Hoke Granger or Billy Flamion. While it's bad news for those of you on the Granger bandwagon, I have to say it's good news that they're still talking with Stubblefield. It'd be nice to get him added to the system.

UPDATE II: Jonathan Mayo has an article up on MLB.com, which puts forth a theory that Anthony Rendon's negotiations with the Washington Nationals may be holding up Houston's negotiations with Springer. So, now you have one more thing to keep looking for: Anthony Rendon's agreement.

I don't ask much of the hometown nine. (I know, I've started many articles just like that this season. Go with it). One thing I do expect? When you draft a guy, act like you were super-excited he fell to you and get fans pumped up about his future, don't let him sign with an independent league team.

That's all.

It's not much, is it?

As I've mentioned a couple of times this week, I've been moving for about the past 10 days, so I haven't always been able to see news as it's breaking. I had just a little time yesterday morning to look through my RSS feed before I trucked back north for another load of stuff and was dumbstruck with the report via MLB Trade Rumors that Springer may sign with the independent Long Island Ducks.

This is completely a negotiating strategy, but it should tell you something that Springer wants to sign with an independent league team and forego his senior year at UConn. Let me repeat that...Springer would rather sign with an independent league team right now than play his senior season in college. Does that tell you how much he wants to go pro? Actually, I have no idea why Springer would do this. His best shot at being drafted higher and getting more money is by going back to college. By signing with an independent league team, he'd most likely fall further in the first round next season.

What the heck, Astros? What the heck, Bobby Heck? Is it the money? Are you having problems getting a deal done because of Jim Crane's tenuous position as owner? Are we really going to have to wait until the deadline before we get a deal?

What this does is show us that Springer's deal isn't basically done and just waiting for the commish to sign off on it. For some reason, Houston's playing hard ball with Springer's representatives. It's not the hamstring, but I wonder if it shows why Houston likes signing guys who they have more info on their demands first. Houston didn't think Springer would fall to them, so they may not have figured out what it'd take to sign him as much as guys like Adrian Houser. 

Regardless, the Astros need to sign Springer. With Altuve and Lyles sitting in the majors, Springer would almost assuredly take over as the No. 1 prospect in the organization. Just get him signed already.