More photos » Charlie Riedel - AP

Yes, Brad Mills. I was shocked too to see Montgomery County getting an independent team.

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Throw another interesting kink in the minor league ballparks coming to the Houston area. This story talks about Montgomery County possibly getting an independant team from the Atlantic League, which could start play as early as 2012. The land for the stadium has already been purchased but construction has not begun.

What would a second Houston-area team mean? Sounds like neither team will be affiliated with a major league club outside of the Astros. Houston also hasn't shown much interest in making either of the two bids into one of its minor league affiliates, leaving the independant route for both.

Independant minor league baseball has a lot of potential, but I'm not sure how well it will do so close to Houston. While the summer league team here in Bryan does well, that probably wouldn't be the case if people could also go watch the Astros. On the other hand, these teams could have a good crop of talent to work with, as there are a ton of college and pro players from the Houston area. All it takes is one guy like Rickey Henderson to play for one of the teams to create some buzz.

This isn't nearly as exciting as having a Double-A or Triple-A affiliate at the doorstep to The Woodlands Mall. I do think, however, that the more clubs a city can support will give Houston a better chance to earn a reputation as a baseball town.

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Matt York - AP

Who helped the Astros win more from 1997 to 2005 than Lance Berkman?

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*Note: I know you are ready for the Friday Astros Minor Thoughts to return. Hold off for one more week. This story is about the minors and the draft, but it's bigger than the normal Thoughts. So you've got that going for you. Which is nice.

A throwaway comment by Evan the other day gave me a great idea for a story. The Astros glory years were from 1997-2005. That's when they made the playoffs six times in nine years. But, how were those teams built. Everyone harps on how bad the Astros farm system is now, but was it correspondingly good leading up to that dynastic period?

More importantly, how much did a well-perceived system help them win during that time frame? Was it sustained drafting excellence that carried the day, or was it one or two big scores? Obviously, our topics lately have veered into supporting Houston General Manager Ed Wade against all manner of outside opinions. Most observers are skeptical of the strength or effect the past two (pretty strong) drafts will have on the Astros going forward. So, I wanted to both see what caused the Astros success in the late 90's and if the pattern could be duplicated in 2010 and beyond.

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More photos » Rob Carr - AP

23 days ago: Houston Astros first baseman Lance Berkman takes batting practice during spring training baseball practice, Wednesday, Feb. 24, 2010, in Kissimmee, Fla. (AP Photo/Rob Carr)

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There's not a lot going on in the minors this week. Or, more aptly, my week was spent wrapped up in spring training and the start of the college baseball season. Didn't get as much time to surf the draft game as I'd like. I did post some video of my trip to the Aggie's ballpark last week and have a small scouting report over at Minor Musings, if you're interested.

But, we have business to get to. The big topic here is a pair of articles on minor league run environments and game recaps. Both are from The Hardball Times and both illustrate some great points about why it can be tough to follow minor league baseball sometimes.

This first article is a study done to look at whether there is a bias on the part of stringers covering games for MLBAM. The most disturbing part of this article is the fact that Huntsville stopped reporting line drives in 2009. That's pretty ridiculous, if you think about it. It's not hard to tell the difference between a ball hit up in the air and one hit on a line. But, I do think about this very thing every time I dig into those game recaps for the minor leagues. I've gotten some great information from these, but I'm really relying on whoever is keeping score in the game to get things right. I'm assuming this IS getting better, but it makes me want to qualify all the research I do on the minor leagues.

The other article goes a long way to solving the problem about which leagues are really 'hitter's leagues' and which are not. While the Texas League gets a bad rep as a hitter's it's dead center in the middle. In fact, the only two leagues the Astros play in that lean towards higher run totals are the California and Pacific Coast Leagues. Nothing groundbreaking there, but I was pleased to see the New York-Penn league listed as a low run environment. There were too many hitters to struggle there in 2009 for my liking. On the other hand, JD Martinez' success there makes me even more excited to follow his progress.

It was a sad day earlier this week when I learned that former Round Rock infielder Mark Saccomanno had signed with the Marlins organization. My dad and I are both huge Seinfeld fans. When Saccomanno was playing at Baylor, there were quite a few "You know my friend, Bob Saccomanno?" jokes flying around. After he got drafted by the Astros, I've kept an eye out on his progress mainly for that reason. I hope he can find success in Florida. If I could offer him some parting advice: Don't ever take astronaut pens from people and never sleep on the pull-out couch. It can only lead to trouble.

In other player signing news: former Astros prospect and University of Miami alum Charlton Jimerson signed with the Minnesota Twins. Jimerson had played in the independent Atlantic League in 2009. Though he had plenty of talent, Jimerson could never get over his strikeouts and a crowded Astros outfield. ... Another former Astro signed a minor league deal this week, as Eric Munson will play for San Diego's Triple-A affiliate in Portland. Munson was a part of that Astros team a while back which had all those former USC players on it.

Brian McTaggart 'breaks' a story (only light sarcasm implied, Mr. McTaggart) that Chris Johnson will open the season in Round Rock this season. This, of course, is because the Astros will be paying Pedro Feliz 4.5 million to man the hot corner in the pros. As I mentioned yesterday, Johnson's home run into Hunter Pence's windshield is a good sign, but I'm still not convinced he will ever have the power to be more than a useful bench guy in the majors.

And just a little draft note here: Is Jamison Taillon getting too much hype right now? Lots of high school pitchers throw in the upper 90s. How many keep throwing like that in the pros? Remember that kid from Marshall, Colt Griffin? The Kansas City Royals drafted him ninth overall in 2001 because he could hit 100 MPH in high school. He lasted five seasons in the minors and never got a taste of Triple-A. In fact, he only threw 87 total innings in Double-A. Why don't we just slow our roll a little with this kid, okay?

More photos » Rob Carr - AP

This picture has nothing to with this story, but it is awesome, and I'm afraid it won't make the front page any other way.

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I'm not a prospecter.  I enjoy listening to those who are knowledgeable about the business of evaluating and prognosticating about a prospect's future, but I, myself, have never had the desire to role up my selves and dig into the business.  I have a tremendous amount of respect for old school scouting, but as an analytically inclined fan of baseball, their trade has always felt too mushy.  Not that it isn't incredibly valuable, it just doesn't speak to me the way the statistical revolution in baseball has.

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More photos » Rob Carr - AP

Wooo! Fresh pictures from spring training! And this one even has a bonafide minor leaguer in it! Welcome to the blog, Wladimir Sutil.

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Another Friday, another edition of the finest minor league thoughts I can muster. Today, we’ll cover a possible team in Sugar Land, more draft talk, an easier-to-read Top 10 prospect list and questions about local collegiate players.

Stay till the end to catch an important note about an exciting development over at Farmstros. If you must go over to his site first, you must. But you can also stay till the end of my column. Either way, the news is very cool.

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Now that all the projections are out for the Astros, it's time to get down to the business of thinking about the team and who will comprise it this season. As with most teams, the Astros head into spring training with most of its 25-man roster spots taken up by veteran players. The fifth outfielder's spot...maybe a bullpen position are up for grabs and that's about all.

Looking past the beginning of April and into the vast expanses of the 2010 season, a lot of different personnel scenarios will play out. Older players will see a decline in their play or will succumb to injury. The younger players may not be quite ready for the bright lights of the Juice Box. It happens, and the mark of a well-run franchise is how those holes are plugged at a moment's notice. Last season, a player like Chris Coste was expected to play fairly meaningful role at various points in the season. While it's entirely possible that similar free agent signings will be made midseason again this year, hopefully the Astros can look inward rather than outward for help.

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There's a lot of momentum on TCB right now when we talk about the 2010 draft. Earlier this week, busterbluesy published a great rundown on what many of the leading sources are projecting for the Astros draft in 2010.

Last summer, I looked at what the Astros actually spent in the draft. My anger has waned some, as I think the team is still picking solid players. I'm just not sold that they'll definitely go above slot if it means getting the best available player.

Andy Seiler gives us a very in-depth look at the Astros draft history under Bobby Heck. One of his main points is that the Astros have not spent money outside of 2008 and probably won't look to go much over slot in the later rounds of 2010 since they will be laying out some serious cash in slot value to their first three picks. I really hope there is some language put into the next Collective Bargaining Agreement which quantifies these draft slot prices. That way all the teams would have to live up to them and the bigger money teams couldn't skirt the system.

There were two other things that jumped out at me with Seiler's analysis. First, it's definitely apparent that Heck likes 'workout arms.' So far, this has worked out for him, but I have a natural aversion to the workout warriors from the NFL draft process. Baseball evaluation is so different, though, that I may just need to get over it and embrace what the Astros are doing. On the other hand, it was a notable workout by Max Sapp that got him picked in the first round back in 2006. That hasn't exactly worked out to this point.

The point about targeting Georgia prep bats is also very interesting. I wonder if the Astros have a great scout in that area who just happens to uncover these guys, or if it's more an actual push to focus heavily on that particular area. Neither Jay Austin nor Telvin Nash have set the world on fire in the minors, but they have loads of potential to tap. It's up to the Astros to get them there.

In the past weeks when we've discussed the draft, comments inevitably turned to Christian Colon, who is one of the favorites of you TCBers. I, admittedly, did not know much about Colon prior to doing my homework on him for these pieces. This week, I found another article on him that makes a comparison sure to draw interest on draft day. FanGraphs' Bryan Smith compared Colon to the Astros' own Craig Biggio. We've seen how tenuous such comparisons can be (re: Manzella, Tommy), and I get the feeling that the Astros want some more thump from a college bat than Colon would provide. This article, though, raises some good points about his value and I have no doubt that he would be able to make an impact quickly.

HLP posted this the other day, but I wanted to follow up on it. I know this is one of the hot-button topics people push when they are advocating the international draft. I just don't see this working out. For one, I'm not really a fan of Big Brother collecting all this information on anyone, much less the implications on the draft back at home. Plus, I really don't think this is a program that baseball owners would want to give any money for. The average team just doesn't spend enough in Latin America to make this worthwhile. Teams who are wary of these sorts of problems can just not do business in the Dominican.

Here's a really fascinating article on minor league power splits. Notice how Gaston shows up as an extreme pull hitter while Koby Clemens is on the 'up the middle' list. Same ballpark, different hitting zones, though both were painted with the same "park effect" brush. It's encouraging to me that Clemens had so much of his success to center. Typically, this is the deepest part of a park, which means Clemens has to have serious power to have success. At the same time, part of his ISO could be generated from doubles and triples he got when a center fielder misread a ball or took a bad route. Collin DeLome also popped up here hitting to the opposite field, which makes sense since Corpus has a shorter porch in right field. I mentioned this in the comments of HLP's post yesterday, but Whataburger Field actually has a home run factor very similar to Lancaster's. This could be from hitters targeting this dimension, but I don't want to generalize. DeLome may just have great natural strength and a good in-and-out swing.

It's also the time of year for lists and fantasy previews. Astros prospects popped up on both recently, as the Sporting News profiled 10 rookies who could impact baseball in 2010. Of course, Tommy Manzella was one of the ten as he has the inside track to be a starter. The author said his defense is 'major-league ready.' As DQ pointed out on Monday, this doesn't mean his defense should be good, just that he's league average right now. Another preview listed the top 100 prospects who could impact fantasy baseball in 2010. The Astros listed in the MLB.com Fantasy preview: No. 16 Tommy Manzella, No. 39 Jason Castro, No. 43 Jonathan Gaston, No. 64 Chris Johnson. It's funny that this is probably the only prospect list this year that will have Manzella on top and Johnson at No. 4. I was mildly shocked to see Gaston, since I'm sure he's a ways away from the majors, but his power must be awful tempting to non-prospecting listmakers. I'm assuming that someone like Jonathan Mayo didn't put this list together, after all. Which of these guys would you draft this year?

I had mentioned in the Manzella post by DQ earlier this week that I didn't think the Astros would give up on Manzella after a bad spring. What might be plausible is making a deal for a guy like Joaquin Arias. The Astros have already demonstrated they have a good working relationship with the Rangers front office (see: Rodriguez, Ivan) and might have a need for another infielder, just in case. Obviously, someone would have to get cut for this to happen. While it's unlikely, I could see a scenario where Geoff Blum shows up for ST and can't cut it, choosing to retire or get cut by the end. That way the Astros could keep Jeff Keppinger as a backup to Pedro Feliz and Kazuo Matsui, while slotting Arias in behind Manzella. The big question will be what Brad Mills' preferences will be. I'm sure he will have some input on the makeup of the bench and may make the final round of cutdowns hairy for a bunch of guys.

If you haven't been able to tell, I really enjoy covering the minor leagues. I even have a (very neglected) blog on the subject. I could talk about the Astros farm system every day. But, I try to control myself and think I'm going to settle on writing a Friday column with all sorts of little tidbits throughout the season. Sometimes, like this week, a couple of the stories I picked up for this were already FanShotted. I hope you don't mind seeing them twice. At any rate, let's get to the good stuff:

With the debut of some college seasons, talk of the June draft is starting to percolate. The Astros have four picks in the first two rounds in the 2010 draft. Judging from this article, the best they will get the best bang for those picks by taking hitters, either college or high school. If they have to take a pitcher, it's better to take a high school arm than a college one. If you look at Bobby Heck's profile since joining the Astros, he's already following a very similar model. He's picked a college bat high, high school position players, high school arms and not one college arm in the top three rounds. Either his people have broken down this kind of data, or he just intuitively understands how to get good value from the draft. Whichever it is, I feel even better about the Astros prospects.

Interestingly, over at insidethebook.com, Tangotiger makes the point that any pitcher outside the top 25 college and high school arms is like throwing darts blindfolded. Everyone talks about Mike Piazza being found in the 62nd round as evidence that you can find value late. In the future, though, it's going to be late-round pitchers who have the best chance to make the majors. Look at a guy like Danny Meszaros. Because There's No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect (TNSTAPP), pitchers from late in the draft have an easier time flying up the organization. If there are injuries which hurt depth, there's an even greater chance. Now, I'm not suggesting that teams will start finding stars in the 40th round. But Tango's article does suggest that it's easier to find big-league pitchers late than you'd expect.

I know there are some good people doing stat-oriented prospecting, but it's still jarring to see someone on MLB.com use things like ISO when discussing Mike Stanton. I was kind of surprised to see Stanton ranked so highly, since he strikes out a ton. Still, clubs are always searching for power and Stanton seems to have that in droves. I still don't know if he's much different than Mike Jacobs, though. I guess he's cheaper, at least.

Let the Bryce Harper talk continue. The 17-year old made his debut for the College of Southern Nevada and hit his first home run in Game No. 4. Here's a video of it.

Mayo also has an article up talking about his predictions for the 2010 draft. His list of the top 10 players in the 2010 draft isn't a suggestion of when they'll be picked, but one of the most talented. If the Astros ended up with Zach Cox, would you be happy? If Cox and Harper are both sitting there at eight, who do you pick? I'm sure the Astros could move Harper off to either second or third if they needed to (I'm not sure his defense would be better than Castro's). If Harper comes in with a price tag 2 million over Cox, does that influence your choice? I like the idea of taking Cox simply because he's a polished college bat that could arrive in a year and a half a la Ryan Zimmerman. Harper may have more upside, but he's also very overhyped to this point. I could see him falling a bit on merit once scouts see him in college.

On second thought, this tweet from Lincoln Hamilton at Project Prospect makes me less excited about Cox. A 29% strikeout rate? Yikes! That's almost as bad as Willy Taveras...oh, wait, that was yesterday's post. It's still early in the evaluation process, but I think I like the idea of taking a college hitter with the eighth pick. If he can play third or second, that's great. A power-hitting first baseman also wouldn't hurt (depending on how you view Phil Disher -- I'm not high on him).

I found a great new draft site by Andy Seiler. He's already done a couple mock drafts for 2010 and has the Astros landing a high school outfielder in LaVon Washington and two high school arms with the first three picks. Interesting stuff, to say the least. I would almost bet they don't go outfielder with that first pick, unless Houston really would move him to second base. I still see them going third base at the top but the 'best available player' card is also in play.

A big tip o' the hat to Farmstros for linking to this article in the Corpus Christi Caller-Times. Some interesting tidbits about guys like Brad James and Johnny Ash, or the "Mayors of Corpus Christi." The real conversation starter for me is why in the heck everyone is so hyped up about T.J. Steele. This just started happening this offseason, where Tal Smith goes around and tells guys like Richard Justice that Steele is Cesar Cedeno 2.0. I might be missing something here, but Steele has been injured. A lot. He didn't play nearly a full season in 2009 and injury concerns dogged in through college. I know evaluators fall in love with talent over production in the minors, but I'm a little tired of this rhetoric with Steele. Remember when Mark Prior was the second coming of Cy Young and Kerry Wood was a new Nolan Ryan? How'd that work out?

Earlier this week, McTaggart tweeted this note about the Venezuelan Winter League championship. While Gustavo Chacin may end up on the big league roster, it's more likely that he ends up at Round Rock. His line in the VWL championship (7 inn, 6 K, 5 H) shows he can still be an effective pitcher at times. If he's healthy, he definitely adds solid depth to the Triple-A rotation.

The Astros have also signed an 18-year old first baseman named Mesac Laguna out of Nicaragua. Houston's Nicaraguan scout Leo Guevara said Laguna has a powerful arm, can hit for power and is athletic. He'll start next season in either the Venezuelan or Dominican Summer Leagues. Guevara also compared him to Jose Offerman and Carlos Gomez, which doesn't seem to gibe with the whole 'powerful' thing or the whole 'first baseman' thing. Also of note: Guevara mentioned the Astros expect to sign four or five more players out of Nicaragua next season.

If you're in the Houston area Friday morning, you can be part of the Astros' team picture. Well, it's a picture taken by the team of you and 1,499 of your closest friends all wearing red for a good cause. I'm in meetings all day and 90 minutes from MMP. Anyone that goes, feel free to keep us updated on how it turns out.

One quick programming note: I'm waiting on the Baseball America and Sickel's books to come in before I can start writing about the possible returns for Oswalt and Berkman. I'm hoping to get each next week, but don't know for sure. If you have the Top 100 list from BA or Sickel's Top 50 lists, shoot me an email.