More photos » Charlie Riedel - AP

The Astros should take a page out of Minnesota's playbook in dealing with Hunter Pence

Browse more photos »

This past Saturday saw the Minnesota Twins make a Minnesota Twins-like move in signing lead off hitter and centerfielder Denard Span to a 5 yr/$16.5 million contract. The details of the contract as you can see (if you clicked on the link) are ridiculous in their reasonableness. The per year salaries increase conservatively, buying out multiple arbitration eligible years for the certainty that goes with a long term contract.

Given that he's only going to be 26 this season, the best is probably yet to come. Even if it doesn't come and 2009 is the high water mark in his career, none of the per season salary values are out of line with what his on field production would be. After playing only part of the 2008 with the Twins, Span broke out in 2009, turning in a 3.9 win season. This deal ends when Span will be the ripe old age of 31. Certainly seems rather low risk/high reward for Minnesota.

Just one year ahead of Span, in terms of ML experience, is Hunter Pence. The Astros chose to go to arbitration with Hunter in lieu of attempting to sign him to a long term contract. He will earn $3.5 million this season after rebounding well in 2009 after a disappointing sophomore slump campaign in 2008. 

Of course when a player of similar age and position signs a new contract, I get interested in what the Astros are going to do with Pence. Does Ed Wade wait and see how Hunter does to start the season in 2010 and begin to think beyond the one year increments that has been the approach with not only him but Michael Bourn? At this juncture, with potentially so much payroll coming off the books after this season, I think this is the prudent approach to take.

Perhaps with a player like Span, the Twins see less room for either great improvement or great regression in terms of skills and overall performance. Denard is a high contact rate, high walk guy whose career numbers indicate that he isn't likely to deviate from that trajectory. Defensively Span wasn't all that well thought of in centerfield, which should be interesting this season since Carlos Gomez now plays across the Mississippi River in Wisconsin for Milwaukee. That shouldn't take away from the positives of this contract for the Twins, as they showed faith in a player whose performance in 2009 looks very repeatable in the years going forward.

As for Pence, we know that he will most likely never be a .400 OBP player, but he should make up for this short coming by hitting the ball harder and farther much more than Denard Span. I would tend to believe that with his skill set Hunter offers the Astros much more room for both success and failure (relatively speaking). Without the sort of plate discipline and contact skills as Span, our Right Fielder can fall into greater slumps at the plate, but his power bat can push Pence past Span offensively all things being equal.

2010 hasn't even started for our Astros, but if you'll allow me to look ahead to 2011, you will see a team that looks much different than this season's. The only guarantees to be here (barring trades) among those players currently under multi year contracts are Brandon Lyon, Carlos Lee and Roy Oswalt. Option seasons are available for Brett Myers, Lance Berkman and Geoff Blum, but it's entirely possible that none of those players return...even Lance. Raises will be due to Pence, Bourn and Wandy Rodriguez in some form or fashion, whether it be via arbitration or a longer term contract. The Astros will have payroll flexibility, something that has not been the case since before the Clemens/Kent/Pettitte years. If Hunter Pence performs as well as we think he can, it will be exciting to see if the Astros heed the lessons learned from Denard Span's new contract with Minnesota.

In TCB's recent interview with Brian McTaggart, he suggested that the Astros may not keep Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman around till they retire. Instead, these players may request trades to play with, you know, actually competitive teams. Crazy idea, right?

With that thought circling around my brain, I saw this article over at MLB Trade Rumors last weekend, discussing Carlos Lee's relative trade value. Last summer, I ran through some of the trade values of current Astros using Sky Kalkman's excellent Trade Value Calculator spreadsheet. This all gave me a good basis to start wondering, should the Astros trade either Berkman or Oswalt? Would anyone want them? What could the Astros get in return?

This is the first in a series which will delve into these questions. This first installment will look at what kind of value the Astros can expect to receive based on trades made this offseason for big-name players. After the jump, we'll get into the particulars on Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Curtis Granderson, Edwin Jackson and Javier Vazquez.

Continue reading this post »

I got a song (or two) in my heart this afternoon, I can't helps it! Maybe the songs aren't good ones, but still...

Alyson Footer tweets that Hunter and the Astros have (if you couldn't tell yet) met halfway between each side's offers and agreed on a 1 yr/$3.5 million contract for this season. Outside of this being extremely reasonable for a player who is 26, only getting better, and a fan favorite, the avoidance of arbitration is a good beacon for future negotiations, in my opinion. I don't know for certain if Pence would have held an arbitration hearing against the Astros, but it couldn't have been much of a good thing for the two sides to have to let a neutral decide Pence's value. Compromise was the name of the game.

I wrote about Hunter, arbitration and his free agent value in a post earlier in the week, so I don't have much more to offer on the subject. There are, of course, advantages to not signing Pence to a multi year deal, including the fact that we just don't know what kind of player Pence will become. With promising outfield talent in the lower levels of the minor leagues, Hunter's role may be to remain a relatively cheap, solid to good outfielder until youngsters like TJ Steele, Jay Austin, Jon Gaston, or even JD Martinez are ready to contribute for the Astros.

This signing leaves Wandy Rodriguez and Tim Byrdak as the remaining two Astros who are arbitration eligible and have yet to have agreed to a 2010 contract with the team. If Wandy can approach his 2009 statistics this season, he may want to hold off on agreeing to any multi year extension this offseason. As for Byrdak, he is expendable and his skills are replaceable.

Proof that one can go home again.

Miguel signed a 1 year/$6 million deal, plus incentives. CHONE projects the 35 year old to be a 1.8 win player in 2010 at SS. The fact that he's going to shift over to a corner infield spot and play in the AL East against much better pitching than he would have faced with the Astros can't help that total. However, as clack notes in the comments a shortstop's skills usually translate well to third base.

All in all, not a bad move for the Orioles who have stop-gap veterans manning first (Garrett Atkins) and now third base. Their club does have a nice looking farm system with a few prominent arms at the AA and AAA levels. John Sickles over at MinorLeagueBall has Josh Bell, 23, as their highest ranked third base prospect. Bells was even more highly thought of in this ranking of the O's minor leaguers. While just three weeks ago it appeared that Bell had a shot at making the big league team out spring training, that seems like an outside chance now that Baltimore has Tejada, Atkins and former Astro Ty Wingginton on the roster.

With Tejada on board, check out the Orioles' active player roster. Six former Astros! Luke Scott, Tejada and Patton will vie for starting positions, while Albers, Sarfate and Wigginton will most likely be key relief pitchers/reserves. As much as Ed Wade likes former Phillies, the O's are full of former Astros. If they end up making noise in the AL East, they can thank the Bayou City.

Bottom line: this was a somewhat predictable signing and Charm City certainly didn't break the bank to get Tejada back. Playing third base full time will definitely be an adjustment, and remembering what it's like to play the Red Sox and Yankees nearly 40 times instead of the Reds and Pirates is huge as well, but Miggy still has high contact and low K skills to peddle. A young club like the Orioles could certainly use some sort veteran presence (whatever you take that phrase to mean), and the Astros have always raved about his clubhouse skills. Good luck and God's speed, Miguelito. Seriously though...that speed will come in handy as AL second baseman and shortstops pound their mitts in anticipation of a ground ball right at them, while a runner on first tries in vain to break up the twin killing.

Because I only focus so narrowly on the Astros, I'm not sure if we are wholly unique in this experience, but having Alyson Footer in her new position has been a awesomely great thing for we as Astros fans.  That and the invention of Twitter.  As I've been writing, her Twitter stream has provided plenty of info, but also glimpses of how something like officially announcing a player and introducing him to the clubhouse, etc. actually works.  That's a perspective that we're not supposed to be privy to, yet Footer brings us along.

I'm not going to link to each individual tweet of hers on the Myers media blitz, but I'll summarize the high points.  Brett Myers, who will wear number 39, will get paid $3.1 million in 2010.  If things go well, there's a mutual option, yet to be explained, that is worth $8 million if exercised, and would cost the Astros $2 million to buy out.  Savvy move, Edward.

Sure, I don't know how the mutual option works, but here's what I do know.  Next year, Kaz Matsui and his $5 million are off the table.  So even if the Astros do have to take Myers' buyout, the net savings to payroll will be $3 million.  Not a lot of risk there.  If things go well, Brett Myers is, in his age 30-31 season, under contract for $8 million.  Even if Myers doesn't pitch terribly well, it'd still only be a boon to our payroll by $3 million after you factor in the Kazuo Matsui's departure.  Yes, I'm obscuring the dollars and cents with some cost/benefit analysis that might not be totally valid here, but it's valid enough for my brain.

Either way, in 2010, Ed Wade brought in a starter with the potential to be a number two caliber starter, who I believe will only need to fit the bill as a number four or five starter, at age 29—which JC Bradbury now informs us may be a player's peak age—for $3.1 million.  Even if we assume that a WAR is going on the open market for $3.5 million, Ed Wade still purchased Myers at a discount—this year—under the most pessimistic of the projections.

As we've hashed out before, the value of the deal is also largely ancillary to Myers' actual performance.  What truly matters is how it affects the shape of the Astros starting rotation.  To that end, McTaggart will hopefully get Ed Wade to give us more specifics on just exactly how it'll play out.  But for now, we have the following quotes from Wade, given prior to the Myers signing:

"People say you've given a lot of chances to Felipe Paulino, and the results haven't been good, but when you look at his age and the weapons and what he brings to the game and if you're opened-minded about it, you'd say this kid deserves every opportunity to show what he's capable of doing if handed the ball every fifth day," Wade said. "Bud Norris falls into a different category. He's established a good record of success at every level coming through the organization, and I wouldn't want to get into the position of slowing that progress down."

That quote, coupled with other comments in that article and other impressions I've gathered from Ed Wade and Brad Mills this offseason, lead me to believe that Brian Moehler is the odd man out.  And that makes sense.  The fifth starter was a position Moehler was suited for when Bud Norris was still tossing in a high school uniform.  The long-man/spot starter is the position that he is best suited for now.  It sounds like Ed Wade knows that Felipe Paulino is due for a rebound; whether it's because sabermetric evidence or scouting reports doesn't matter.  What matters is that Ed Wade has made a pretty-savvy little ploy for 2010 that could see the Astros receive surplus value from their starting rotation.  I should also add that that starting rotation could be pretty damn good.

A lot has been made today of the importance of Javier Vazquez's contract. Vazquez comes to the Yanks at one year and $11.5 million dollars. Thus, many have speculated that all signs point to the fact that Yankees' GM, Brian Cashman, is setting himself up to shed payroll at a time when a bountiful crop of FA talent opens up on the market and Cashman can open up the Steinbrener's coffers. Think Joe Mauer catching Sabathia and Burnett, while batting in front of, behind—or whatever—of A-Rod and Teixeria. And that just would be the tip of the iceberg.

A lot has been said of the saviness of the Vazquez trade for Cashman precisely because of this (also because: how in the hell do you trade away the league leader in xFIP, who only makes $11.5 million, for Melky Cabrera?). Savvy moves by a GM. That's really not something I have heard said of a Houston GM in a long time.

Seriously, think about our signings.

Even the ones that turned out well were ridiculued at the time. Arbtration decisions? Caustic reactions. Last offseason? Splash signings of Jason Michaels, Ivan Rodriguez, and a trade that saw Drew Sutton depart for Jeff Keppinger. The year before? Kaz Matsui at three years and $16.5 million dollars. Don't forget the Miguel Tejada trade on the eve of the Mitchell report, or how much the Brad Lidge for Michael Bourn swap made your head explode throughout 2008. Even if the Valverde trade wasn't bad, by the time all was said and done, our farm system was pretty much desolate and people hated it. 2007? You have to love an offseason that sees Drayton McLane run Andy Pettitte out of town and bring in Carlos Lee and trade for Jason Jennings and sign Woody Williams to a two year deal on the basis of his ballpark enabled late-career-peak-season at Petco. 2006? Preston...ok, I'll stop.

The point is there hasn't been an offseason move, in awhile, in Houston that had a majority of pundits, fans, etc. all agreeing that a Houston Astros GM did something pretty savvy. This offseason has been no different. Painfully so, at times, actually.

But then, in the wake of the Vazquez for Cabrera hubub, it dawned on me: Ed Wade is stacking his chips up for 2013, just like Cashman is for 2011. The following players are off the books, if we want them to be, after 2012: everyone making anything meaningful in the way of salary. Carlos Lee, Brandon Lyon, Kaz Matsui, Roy Oswalt (could take a reduced buyout and walk away after 2011), Lance Berkman (technically his contract is out in 2011). Left on the books (hopefully, due to some "the time is ripe" extensions): Wandy Rodriguez, Hunter Pence, Jason Castro, Bud Norris, Feliepe Paulino, Wesley Wright, Sammy Gervacio, Chia Jen-Lo? Jordan Lyles? Jiovanni Meyer?! That entire combination costs what? $20-25 million to field? Throw in the likelihood of new ownership and there could easily be a $90 million pot of gold at the end of the hot stove rainbow.

I'm not trying to suggest that Wade should let Oswalt and Berkman walk away. In fact, he shouldn't. The point is, Wade came into Houston two years ago with no payroll flexibility and no farm system. In two years, Ed Wade could have an absurd about of payroll flexibility thanks to Bobby Heck, and co.'s farm system. All of this because Ed Wade hasn't signed anyone to a contract that impinges on the magical offseason of 2012.

That's right, there's method to the maddness...possibily.

Does that excuse the iffy of signings, or moves, that Wade has made? No. But Ed Wade won't be searching for guys on the fringe at that point. He'll targeting the top tier free agents. Whatever kind of analysis he's using at that point, it's hard to botch those (unless we through Prince Fielder a Carlos Lee type deal*). Depending on what happens in the next CBA, he probably won't even have to worry all the much about losing a ton of draft picks.

It's like a perfect storm. Ed Wade will get to put the garnishes on a team that he'll have worked for four years to make salvagable. The meat and potatoes will be the guys he's hung onto and the guys he's drafted. I'm almost ready to purchase my 2013 playoff tickets.

Of course, the problem with thesis that Ed Wade has been patiently playing the fool and/or just kind of screwing around for four years to set up a blockbust 2012 offseason has one flaw: it could be what the Mayan's were predicting would bring on the apocalypse. Can you imagine an entire slew of FanGraphs articles praising Ed Wade? Thinking about that possibility has more more convinced that the Mayans might have it right. 

*I have no idea who exactly will and won't be in the 2012 Free Agent class, but Prince Fielder just fit the range and weight of the analogy I needed to make.

Cuban defector* and left-handed pitcher Aroldis Chapman is staging a workout somewhere in Houston today. Chapman left behind his entire family, including a young wife and infant son in Cuba to get a chance to play baseball in the United States. While the location of the workout remains secret, teams are lining up to get a look at the 21-year old, including Ed Wade and Co. While I highly doubt the Astros will sign Chapman, I thought it prudent to write up a short scouting report on him just in case. After all, the workout IS in Houston (mainly because Chapman's agents, the Hendricks brothers, work here).

*Sub-question: If baseball moves to internationalize the draft, what happens with the Cubans? I asked Baseball America's Ben Badler on Twitter and he thought it would be restricted to just certain countries. This article, though, talks about blowing the doors off completely. I'm not sure I agree with that, but I'm open to other opinions.

Here's the first of two YouTube videos I was able to find on Chapman. This one is about 10 minutes, though it really should have been edited down a bit. This one is also about 10 minutes long, but is apparently of an All-Star game in Cuba to select the national team. Chapman is featured in about half of the video. Finally, here's a short video with various pictures of Chapman's delivery.

What can you see?

Let's start with the good:

• Chapman definitely generates the power behind his fastball through his lower body. Watch both his windup and his stretch; each time, he uses that powerful leg kick to generate a ton of power.
• He also has a slight pause at the top of his windup which can definitely be deceiving for hitters.
• Chapman showed off three pitches that I saw, a 12-6 curveball, his fastball and what looked to be a slider. That last one may have been a screwball, but since he only threw one, I couldn't be sure.
• Chapman's lower body seems to land in a good position, with his front foot coming down relatively softly. He falls off towards the third base side pretty heavily, but appears to be in good fielding position once he finishes his pitch.
• He also doesn't appear to rely on the Inverted W when the throws, taking out one injury risk from the picture.

What about the bad?

• His delivery wasn't very repeatable. Chapman threw with three different arm angles, depending on the pitch. His curveball, in fact, came almost directly over the top while his fastball sat at a low 3/4 delivery slot. That big a chance will be noticed at the big league level.
• The other part of his velocity on that fastball came as part of an extended arm whip. As you can see from this post at another fine SBNation blog, Driveline Mechanics, the difference between Randy Johnson and Madison Bumgardner is that pronation of the arm across the body. Chapman's delivery brings his arm even further across his body than Bumgardner's, which is not a good sign.
• I'm also concerned that his elbow flies out in front of the ball in his delivery at some points. I couldn't see this on every pitch, but I did pick up on it four or five times through the two videos. This puts added stress on his arm and could lead to elbow injuries down the road.

All in all, Chapman does look impressive. His fastball looks at fast as you've heard and appears to have some late life on it as well. His curveball is better than I'd anticipated, but its telling that Chapman doesn't throw it more. I'm very concerned about his mechanics, though, and could see him having an arm injury of some sort before he hits 27.

So what teams are looking at Chapman? The Red Sox have reportedly already made him an offer, while the Yankees, Angels, Twins and Athletics are also interested. Brian McTaggart doesn't think the Astros have the money to be a real player for the 22-year old, but who knows? Drayton does like those splashy moves.

If Boston's offer came in at 15.5 million on a major league contract, I'd expect Chapman to sign for somewhere around 20-25 million. Some team is going to see a lefty throwing 100 mph and have visions of Randy Johnson dance in their heads. Unfortunately, with Chapman's mechanics, he likely won't hold up for half as long as The Big Unit.

Although Pedro Feliz is an excellent defensive third baseman, his offense is more flawed.  Feliz fits the profile of a lower batting average, low OBP hitter, whose saving offfensive feature is the ability to hit a decent number of HRs (averages 18 HR/season).  Since Feliz's HR totals declined in 09, critics point to a likely decline in power as Feliz heads into his mid-30's. So, I will take a look at Feliz's offense to see if we can find any reason for optimism.  This article isn't about making a projection for Feliz--if you want that, you can look at CHONE, Bill James, and ZIPS projections, all of which project a slight improvement in Feliz's offense over 2009--but rather trying to find some glimmers of hope that Feliz could provide a better offensive contribution than we expect.

ZIPS shows the two top comparable players to Feliz are Vinny Castilla and Tim Wallach.  Castilla is an interesting comparable, in part because of the similarity between the situation surrounding the acquistion of Feliz and Castilla by the Astros.  The Astros brought Castilla in as a one year "fix" at the 3d base position in 2001, after young prospects were disappointments at that position.  Castilla, a slick fielding 3d baseman, appeared to be in the midst of an offensive decline at the age of 33, but he ended up resurrecting his career with the Astros, hitting 23 HRs and posting a .812 OPS.  Castilla's bumpy offensive performance in his mid-30's is illustrated by his HRs totals between ages of 33 and 36: 23, 12, 22, and 35.  Castilla had one of his best offensive seasons when he went back to Coors Field at the age of 36 and hit 35 HRs, with 131 RBIs. Tim Wallach had declining offense in Montreal at ages 32-35, and then rebounded as a Dodger at ages 36-37 with an OPS+ of 127 and 106.  These two comparable players illustrate that the declining impact of age is not always a straight line, but often a jagged line that includes rebounding offense.

If you wanted to hold out hope for a rebound season for Feliz, I think the possibility of a change in scenery, specifically the ballpark, can rejuvenate a player. Castilla's rebound years after moving to MMP and then Coors Field late in his career might be examples.  Feliz is pull hitter to LF; 24 of his 26 HRs over the last two years were hit to LF.  And, of course, MMP's Crawford Boxes are only 315 feet away in LF.  A player's ballpark stats should be taken with a grain of salt, mostly due to sample size, as well as the inability to control for the quality of opposing pitchers.  However, setting aside that warning, I think we can see why Feliz said he liked his trips to Houston as an opposing player.  His career triple slash line in Minute Maid Park is quite good:

.301, .326, .530, OPS--.856

In fact, among NL parks only Coors Field (.949) and Nationals Park are better for Feliz, in terms of OPS.

Continue reading this post »