The Crawfish Boxes: FanPosts

Quasi update on Lucas Giolito for draft

2012-05-17T15:16:23Z

This makes me want him to be 1-1 overall again. He could be a monster Verlander type. True aces are hard to come by and this draft is not really that top heavy, the four possible I see as true 1-1 types are Giolito (fireballer (100+) with hammer HS RH pitcher), Buxton (HS 5 tool OF), Correa (HS skilled SS with good pop/bat) and Appel (College RH pitcher with 3/4 good pitches, but shaky results for guy that should have dominated) him being the safest pick but least lackluster).

Here is the link, tells about the insugnificance of his injury.

http://www.bbprospectreport.com/2012/03/16/lucas-giolito-1#more-15524

The Importance of George Springer

2012-05-15T21:09:19Z

In my mind George Springer is the most important part of the Astros's return to the playoffs. It will be huge if he can live up to his potential and turn into a middle of the order bat that can play center field. That last part is the real key. If he can play a good center field and be a 30 home run player he will give the Astros an incredible amount of freedom with the rest of the lineup. They will be able to think outside the box at several other positions if they can get that kind of production from a center fielder.

If Springer can play center field while hitting like a right or left fielder Austin Wates becomes a viable corner oufielder when normally his offensive skill set would require him to play center. I have hope that Wates can be a Brett Gardner lite. If Springer can be a middle of the order hitter while playing center, a guy like Austin Wates would be free to be a .300/.350/.400 hitter whose range makes him an above average fielder in left. But maybe we have JD Martinez to play left and someone like Domingo Santana to hold down right, both supplying good power production along with Springer. That would allow the Astros to carry a glove first player at another position. I am thinking third base here. Traditional thinking says that a thirdbaseman has to have power...even though bonifide power hitters at third are hard to find. If Springer can supply good power in center suddenly a line up with Singleton, Altuve, Lowrie, Martinez and Martinez/Santana allows for a lot of flexibility at third. Guys like Jimmy Paredes and Meyer don't look so out of place on the hot corner any more.

Paredes seems to bring batting average, speed and a little power to the table. He doesn't walk much which will lead others to say his batting average is "empty." But his "empty" average will be enough with his speed and his modest power...if he can play the position competently and if Springer can anchor the lineup while playing center. The same can be said of Meyer. If Springer can hold down center and hit like we hope he can , Meyer's defense and limited bat become enough to contribute to a good team. However, if Springer fails to stick in center it will become more important to find a more idealized third baseman that can supply middle of the order power. It looks less and less likely that we can find such a third baseman preexisting in out system.

So here's hoping that guys at premium positions turn into good hitters. I'm talking about you, Springer, Castro, Lowrie, Villar, and Meir...You guys can give us so much freedom by filling the hardest to fill hole, and Springer, you have the highest upside.

Good News

2012-05-15T18:09:07Z

The good news is that the 2012 Astros seem to be better than the 2011 Astros. I know it's early, but I'm encouraged. There is one thing I've noticed this year in MLB, that seems to be more common than in year's past. Players are really losing their tempers at an alarming rate. And just a few days ago, Bryce Harper actually, in a fit of anger, slams a bat into the wall of the tunnel, and has it bounce back and hit him in the face (requiring several stitches). REALLY?? C'mon man!! Listen....nothing, and I mean nothing good EVER happens when you lose your temper. Composure is the name of the game...it's got to be. Just ask Stoudemire. And speaking of Bryce Harper, the Nats might want to use him behind the plate since their backup catcher just went down...and since he sucks in the outfield. Anyway, keep fighting Astros!! If you keep working hard, good things will happen.

Thinking about where the top 2012 draftees will be ranked for 2013

2012-05-15T18:05:42Z

I think this is probably a better exercise to go through now as opposed to after the draft. The status of the top guys should not really change from right now to Jan/Feb 2013. Giolito has a chance to improve/hurt his stock quite a bit I suppose, but other than him, we should be able to figure out roughly where these guys should slot next year. We have a chance to be realistic about it now, before bias sets in, though there might be some bias toward the whole group getting high rankings.

Here are my guesses...I don't want to get into too much detail over the explanations right now, but I'd love to see other rankings and maybe we'll get into some detail later.

22. Byron Buxton

29. Carlos Correa

35. Mike Zunino

43. Mark Appel

55. Kevin Gausman

There are a few other wildcard types (namely Giolito and Zimmer) that I haven't ranked here, and I wouldn't be shocked to see one or two of them crack the top 50 possibly. I these are the consensus top 5 at this point. This is how I think their general industry ranking will shake out.

Most valuable building blocks

2012-05-12T15:44:07Z

Who are the Astros' top assets for the coming years? Which players offer the most potential value above replacement? To answer the question, we have to balance future potential with current value. Positional value, age, and health are also important considerations. I'll give my top twelve and then let you vote.

1. Jose Altuve - He is young, plays at a significant defensive position, and has already established himself some at the major league level.

2. Jonathan Singleton - He projects to be a strong middle of the order hitter, with potential for high batting average, OBP, and slugging.

3. George Springer - He has the skills to be an impact player at a cornerstone defensive position. His strikeout rate may limit his offensive ceiling, but other features of his game appear to be strong.

4. Jed Lowrie - As a shortstop who can hit, he offers a lot of value to a rebuilding team. He is in his prime window in terms of age (28 years old). If he can stay healthy, he will be a good piece to build around for the next 4 or 5 years.

5. Jordan Lyles - For such a young pitcher, Lyles has made great progress through the minors and has shown some glimpses of success at the major league level. His stuff will not translate to domination, but he could be a solid middle of the rotation guy for many years.

6. Bud Norris - You could easily move him ahead of Lyles, since his value is already more established.

7. Jarred Cosart - If all goes well, he could be a frontline starter for the Astros in future seasons.

8. Mike Foltynewicz - The potential has always been there. Now, the results are beginning to follow.

9. Paul Clemens - Starting pitching is a valuable commodity, and Clemens has potential to provide average to above average value there.

10. Jason Castro - Has the potential to develop into a solid defensive and offensive catcher, though the upside seems limited.

11. J. D. Martinez - Brings a consistent track record for hitting success from the minors. He is not higher on the list because his skills are not that exceptional at the corner outfield position.

12. Fernando Martinez - His young age and potential to be a plus hitter is balanced out by injury concerns.

Others considered: Jordan Schafer, Delino Deshields, Jr., Nick Tropeano, Wandy Rodriguez, Domingo Santana.

Poll

Who is the Astros' most valuable building block for the future?

Minor League Open Thread

2012-05-11T00:34:32Z

If you want to discuss tonight's minor league games, go ahead. We don't have an Astros' game tonight.

The Astros Up The Middle

2012-05-09T18:38:52Z

As of today, going by fangraphs WAR, the Astros have the top second baseman and the third best shortstop in all of baseball. It is still early and both Altuve and Lowrie will have some regression over the course of the season, but I do expect both of them to remain near the top in their respective positional leader boards. Ed Wade always talked about building up the middle of the diamond first, and now the Astros might have the best middle infield in baseball. Thank you, Ed...wait...Tim Purpura and Jeff Luhnow. But to give Ed some credit, Jordan Schafer is the 15th ranked CF in terms of WAR and probably one of the better defensive CFs, and Jason Castro has been looking better. It's not out of the realm of possibility that the four up the middle positions could combine to contribute around 11 to 12 WAR by the end of the season.

For as nice as the present is, the future could be even brighter with George Springer's potential in center and the fact that Altuve and Castro (hoping that he continues to improve) are under team control for a long time. Jordan Schafer has already out performed my pessimistic expectations for him this season, but I expect his offense to continue to decline. And yet I will not be angry with him getting a lot of at bats because even with his lack luster bat, his base running and defense will make him worth starting. He probably shouldn't be batting lead off, but that's really not that big a deal.

There is, however, uncertainty surrounding the future of the shortstop position. Jed Lowrie is farther along in his major league career than the other promising players on this young Astros team. I see him like the Ken Caminiti of the '92 Astros. Since he is older and will get expensive sooner than the young guys there is a good argument for trading him in the upcoming seasons. If he stays healthy and continues to play like an All-Star caliber shortstop, he should be able to bring in a nice prospect haul. Personally, I would prefer to extend him in order to have him around for another 3 or 4 seasons. My faith in Villar and Mier to become MLB regulars is shaky. I also feel that shortstops that can hit and play good defense are so rare that you keep them when you are lucky enough to find them. Who was the last Astros shortstop that looked this good? Dickie Thon? Thankfully Lowrie is not a free agent after this season, so the Astros do not have to make a decision right away. They can afford to wait and see how the prospects progress and how Lowrie holds up.

Personally I feel that dealing Lowrie in an upcoming season would be like when the Astros dealt Caminiti. It will leave a hole at a hard to fill position that may never be filled. If Lowrie is extended and the then a prospect emerges as a better MLB shortstop, Lowrie could slide over to third, where there are even fewer options in our system. And he should still have trade value if he is healthy.

What do you think? Is he a guy we should build around or is he just a stopgap whose value should be measured in prospects gained?

Ways Teams Will Try to Evade International Free Agent Rules

2012-05-09T18:13:45Z

This article by Baseball America discusses the ways that some MLB teams may try to evade the bonus pool limits on signing international free agent. Teams will be limited to annual total bonus amount of $2.9 million for international signings after July 7. Most of the efforts at evading the new CBA rules are best described as "cheating." Some might be described as finding "loopholes." I wouldn't want the Astros to cheat, but cheating by other clubs will have a negative effect on the honest teams' ability to sign the international players that they target. The Rangers already have made some signings that might be interpreted as looking for a loophole.

A couple of the exceptions to the rules are legal and may place a premium on certain players who meet those exceptions. For instance, a prospect who is cut by another team is eligible to be re-signed with another team for a bonus that will not count against the bonus pool. MLB says they will not interpret this exception as applying to players whose contracts were cancelled by MLB due to drug suspensions or age discrepancies. Mexican born prospects who play for a Mexican League team will not have the full bonus count toward the bonus pool, because typically 75% of the bonus is channeled to the Mexican League team. (I recall that, shortly after he took the GM job, Luhnow said that he wanted the Astros to become more active in the Mexico prospect market.)

Some of the mentioned evasions are very shady, and reminds me of economists' observations that attempting to prevent markets from clearing supply and demand will create unintended consequences. This can take the effect of non-monetary compensation, like giving the prospect or his family a new luxury automobile (reminds me of college recruiter cheating) or channeling money or perks to friends and family. of the prospect. Another form of cheating is bribing the agent or "trainer" for the 16 year old since that individual may control the prospect's signing decision.

Anyway, the article raises some interesting questions....and also raises the question as to how much effort MLB will put into enforcement against teams cheating.

Interview with LHP Mitchell Lambson; Thoughts On Being a Host Parent

2012-05-07T01:53:10Z

I had the good fortune to interview 2011 draftee LHP Mitchell Lambson, recently. Very enthusiastic young man, loves the game. I very much appreciated speaking to him, even if it was just by email and FB.

http://grandoldgame.blogspot.com/2012/05/player-interview-mitchell-lambson-lhp.html

Also, a few thoughts in a guest spot on what it's been like to be part of a host family for our Lexington Legends, this year.

http://legendsmom.blogspot.com/2012/05/what-being-part-of-host-family-really.html

And dealing with some hard demotions from the fan's point of view.

http://grandoldgame.blogspot.com/2012/05/transactions-hallock-bushue-king-sent.html

Jarred Cosart Promoted to AAA

2012-05-04T23:12:44Z

As the title says, Jarred Cosart has been promoted to AAA Oklahoma City, or so he says on his twitter account. From the looks of it, it's not just for a spot start. There is no confirmation that it is a permanent promotion, but it sure seems like it, especially since there's about to be a SP called up from OKC.

I, for one, am not thrilled with the move. He's been good so far this year with a decent strikeout rate and a high number of groundballs, but his command has been very spotty. I watched Paul Clemens pitch last night, and his command was waaay off. As a result, he got shelled. Granted, Cosart has much better stuff than Clemens, but I don't think it would make a significant difference.

Again, there is no confirmation that this is a permanent promotion, but it sounds like it will be. He could just be filling in the open spot in OKC's rotation until Weiland comes back. I think it's still unknown when Weiland comes back, so Cosart could be at OKC for awhile.

Astros' System Studs and Duds: April

2012-05-02T17:10:06Z

We're a month into the season, so I thought I'd start some discussion about which players have been the most pleasant surprises and which players have been the biggest disappointments.

Houston (MLB)

Studs: Jose Altuve, Jed Lowrie, JD Martinez, Travis Buck, Brett Myers, Wandy Rodriguez, Rhiner Cruz, Wilton Lopez, David Carpenter

Duds: Jason Castro, Bud Norris, Kyle Weiland, Fernando Abad

Overall, Houston's offense has been better than expected. Other than the catching position, the 'stros have gotten good production across the board. Altuve, Lowrie, and Martinez may be cornerstone players for the next contending team, and Buck looks like an excellent Luhnow signing.
Cruz was pitching extremely well before his ankle injury. The 7-8-9 combo of Carpenter, Lopez, and Myers has done well, but Lyon and F Rod have been responsible for a few meltdowns. The 3 HR's Abad has given up have been painful. The rotation has pretty average, with Wandy pitching like an ace and the others middling. Norris has had a couple of starts go really well in the 1st 5 innings before getting beat up. Weiland was a disappointment after his stellar spring. Happ and Harrell have been perfectly average, which is fine on a team in this state.
OKC (AAA)

Studs: Fernando Martinez, JB Shuck, Xavier Cedeno, Dallas Keuchel, Paul Clemens, Mickey Storey, Adalberto Flores, Jordan Lyles

Duds: Brett Wallace, Aneury Rodriguez, Juan Abreu

OKC has been far better than expected, due in large part to the starting pitchers. Lyles, Clemens, and Keuchel all look ready to help in the big leagues. Fernando Martinez is on pace for 30 HRs; this may be his breakout season. After a bad start, JB Shuck has really heated up and is hitting .343. Many of the AAAA older guys have hit well, but that is what you expect from a 28+ year old in the minor leagues. Xavier Cedeno might have a case as the lefty in Houston, and Sergio Perez along with Flores and Storey are putting themselves on the map with good starts. Brett Wallace has been a massive disappointment thus far, hitting only .234 with 2 HRs. Jimmy Paredes has recovered from a poor start and while he hasn't had a great April, he isn't doing poorly either.
Corpus Christi (AA)

Studs: Jon Singleton, Austin Wates, Kody Hinze, Brandon Barnes, Kevin Chapman, Jason Stoffel, Arcenio Leon, Jarred Cosart, Jose Cisnero

Duds: TJ Steele, Jon Villar, JC Thompson, Josh Zeid, Brett Oberholtzer, Henry Villar

The Hooks have sat around .500 all month, as for every player who is excelling, there is a player performing poorly. Singleton and Barnes have been nothing short of dominant. Barnes is old for the league but still young enough and has the athleticism to have a glimmer of hope that he is just a late bloomer. Singleton is showing why he is a Top 50 prospect in all of baseball. Hinze is on pace for 30 HR. Despite missing 2 starts due to injury, Jarred Cosart had a very good April, K'ing 13 in 13.1IP. Cisnero had a great April as well and is definitely a sleeper. Possibly the biggest disappointment in the system is Jon Villar, a former Top 100 prospect in his repeat AA season. His 535 OPS is dreadful. Houston has a lot riding on his success, so hopefully he'll rebound.

Lancaster (Hi-A)

Studs: Erik Castro, Telvin Nash, Jon Meyer, George Springer, Ruben Alaniz, Bobby Doran, Kirk Clark, Alex Sogard

Duds: Rafael Valenzuela, Adam Bailey, Jorge De Leon

Nash is on pace for 50+ HRs in Lancaster but will need to drastically decrease his strikeout rate before he starts getting serious hype. Meyer has been a steady performer and is probably Houston's best 3B prospect. Springer has come on strong recently, hitting .372 in his last 10 games. Jio Mier hasn't done quite as well but has also turned it on lately. Doran and Alaniz have been very pleasant surprises in Lancaster's rotation. De Leon has gotten knocked around really badly, which is no surprise given his skillset and the environment in the Cal League.

Lexington (A)

Studs: Zach Johnson, Matt Duffy, Mike Foltynewicz, Nick Tropeano, Dayan Diaz, Jason Chowning, Evan Grills

Duds: Mike Kvasnicka, Kyle Hallock, Tanner Bushue

While it looks like Folty and Tropeano have taken a step forward in their development, Bushue and Hallock have taken steps back. Bushue has completely fallen apart and it appears both players may be ticketed for a demotion. The Diaz-Chowning combo at the back of the bullpen has been impressive. Duffy and Johnson, 2 older players for that league, have had decent starts. Given the lack of real 3B prospects in the system, it would be nice for Duffy to break out. DeLino DeShields hasn't done poorly, but he also hasn't progressed as hoped, hitting .253 with 1 HR but 16 SB.

Which players have been your biggest disappointments or pleasant surprises?

Astros 2012 Draft 1-1 Pick Speculation

2012-05-02T13:47:42Z

I wanted to reopen discussions about our first choice in the draft mainly because it seems to change each week. So if anyone has any updates on the top candidates such as Appel, Gausman, Zimmer, Giolito, Zumino and Buxton.

I keep hearing that they are looking more college arm, which is something I agree with except for if Giolito gets back on the mound and shows us he is healed and dominant. I believe he is supposed to start throwing again soon.

My pick is Appel still, feel like he has the most potential to be a #1.

Just wanted to continue the great discussion threads that Astro Freak and kyuss94 started.

First fanpost so sorry if I butchered it..

2014 Jastros ProJected 25-Man Jroster

2012-05-02T01:39:32Z

Line-up 1. L Jordan Schafer CF 2. R Jose Altuve 2B 3. L Jonathan Singleton 1B 4. R J.D. Martinez LF 5. S Jed Lowrie SS 6. L J.B. Shuck RF 7. R Justin Maxwell DH 8. S Jimmy Paredes 3B 9. L Jason Castro C Bench Jonathan Villar IF Justin Ruggiano OF Jiovanni Mier IF Jchris Snyder C Rotation Jbud Norris RHP Jarred Cozart RHP Jordan Lyles RHP J.A. Happ LHP Jpaul Clemens RHP Bullpen Josh Zeid RHP Juan Abreu RHP Jaston Stoffel RHP Jose Valdez RHP Jkevin Chapman LHP Jwilton Lopez RHP Jdavid Carpenter RHP

Hey All you TCB people

2012-04-29T21:54:59Z

I was looking to do a deep Fantasy Baseball league free of charge to all you guys who are interested. The league will have no more than 16 teams and will have a deep bench which will put an emphasis on prospects. I'm just looking to have some fun and start a dynasty league just to see who has the best overall managerial mind. If you are interested send me an email and I will give you a spot. Not sure about the draft time or format yet, but I will have a poll in the league about it. You can leave your email down below and I will shoot you the invite. If you so not participate you will be replaced though. Really hoping you guys join my league as I would like it to be all Astros fans. Thanks hope you sign up.

What if We're in the Hunt at the Deadline?

2012-04-28T18:40:25Z

The Astros may have a losing record, but they have been outscoring their opponents. I feel confident that if they continue to do so they will see their win loss record improve. They may even have a number of wins lumped together to catapult them up near the top of the division for a short period of time. I don't expect them to maintain a lofty standing, but I can see them having a good run at some point. What should the Astros do around July 31st if they are 3 or 4 games out of first place?

First, we could go ahead according to plan and blow it up. This makes sense if any success that the team has had in the standings is unsustainable, and conventional wisdom says it will be. I have a gut feeling that has come from the shadows of baseball lore that tells me that young teams are volatile (and that the manager, if great, can keep them together). I have no idea if that is really true or not. But blowing up the team regardless of their record makes a lot of sense if a team this young team can't be counted on to compete past the deadline. Trading away this class veterans (Lee, Wandy, Myers, Downs, Happ, and (if the price is right) Norris) probably won't have as big an impact on the Astros' performance as when they dealt Pence, Bourn, Berkman, and Oswalt. So not only will trading them away be good for the future, but it probably won't really hurt the current season all that much anyway. It is possible that Wandy could be dealt for a player who could improve the hitting/defense (a third baseman) and have much of his production replaced by a pitcher currently in AAA. Such a trade would actually make the current team stronger, be good for the future, and make it easier to part with Downs and Lee (who might just be a negative anyway).

There is another option. We could mimic the 2011 Pirates. The Pirates have a July 31st "sell by" date marked on all their players every year, but they had a crisis last season, they were still in the playoff picture. What could they do? They were ahead of schedule. Were they for real? They could have gone all in and traded away top prospects for high-end rentals, but they didn't. They went ahead and picked up a couple of B-level rentals whose cost wouldn't break their farm. Did they win? No. But they did show that they are willing to compete when the stars align, which does have value to fans and players. The Astros have a lot to gain by being as competitive as possible. The fan base is broken, abused by Selig, and angry, so if the starting pitching is still strong and the offense hasn't fallen apart by the deadline they could add few bullpen arms without breaking the bank to keep the team interesting into August and September.

Probably, by mid July, the Astros will have floundered enough to make the decision easy. Lee will be given away with a 10 million dollar mail-in rebate, Wandy will be sold for a few interesting prospects, Myers will net us some minor league relief pitchers and no team will meet the asking price for Norris. Yet I can't help but feel optimistic as I watch this team play. Unlike last season they have a chance to win any given game. And, I am embarrassed to admit this...my brain knows it's silly and childish...but my heart hasn't given up on giving the rest of the NL central a run for it's money.