The Crawfish Boxes - All Posts

Astros Off Day Minor League Game Thread

2013-05-23T22:37:13Z

The Official Site of The Oklahoma City RedHawks | okcredhawks.com Homepage
9:05 p.m. CT start time - Jarred Cosart (4-1, 2.49) vs. Mike Kickham (2-4, 4.72)

The Official Site of The Corpus Christi Hooks | cchooks.com Homepage
7:05 p.m. CT start time - Bobby Doran (5-1, 3.92) vs. Brooks Pounders (1-1, 2.20)

*Nolan Ryan Garden Gnome giveaway. I WANT A PICTURE!

The Official Site of The Lancaster JetHawks | jethawks.com Homepage
9:00 p.m. CT start time - Blair Walters (3-1, 4.05) vs. Eswarlin Jimenez (2-3, 4.00)

The Official Site of The Quad Cities River Bandits | riverbandits.com Homepage
7:00 p.m. CT start time - Jamaine Cotton (0-0, 1.64) vs. Jorge Lopez (0-3, 11.64)

2013 MLB Draft Profile- Elvin Soto, C, Pittsburgh University

2013-05-23T19:47:51Z

Summary

A switch hitter and right handed thrower, Soto goes 6'0", 200 lbs and is a draft eligible sophomore this season. Soto has a wide range of skills with the potential to impact the game on both sides of the ball. He has great speed for a catcher- he registered a 7.12 second 60 yard dash in high school, and he plays even faster than that time. He has recorded pop times as low as 1.80 according to Perfect Game, and his arm is above average as well. Soto has the potential to be a superb defender- he has highly advanced receiving skills, and he's lithe, athletic and comfortable behind the dish. He shows a great knack for blocking the ball, and he has an accurate arm.

As a hitter, Soto has quick, smooth strokes from both sides of the plate. He has great hands and wrists and covers the plate excellently. He has present gap power and shows the ability to put the ball over the fence on occasion. He is currently slashing .324/.417/.528 with a 34/35 BB/K ratio in 244 plate appearances for the Panthers, and his offensive upside is more than enough to make him a future starter behind the plate. Soto, though he's just a sophomore, could easily be the best college catcher in this class from an all around perspective, even if Andrew Knapp has a bit more pure upside with the bat.

Soto is highly impressive in the field. He has great baseball IQ and trusts his speed to help him finish plays. He also possesses the pitch framing skills that are starting to become more highly valued by major league teams. Just 21 years old, Soto shows a lot of polish on both sides of the ball and can be a fast riser in whatever system he ends up in. It would not be surprising to see him start 2014 in high-A ball after a short season campaign in his draft year.

MLB Floor

Even if Soto's bat can't handle the rigors of major league stuff, his athleticism and advanced defensive skills should get him to the big leagues in some capacity. His status as a switch hitter would make him useful as a backup catcher, a la Carlos Corporan.

MLB Ceiling

At best, Soto can be an above-average regular behind the plate. His combination of contact hitting, above average defense, speed and solid average future power are all skills that can translate to the big league game.

Will he sign?

Since he has two years of eligibility remaining, you never know whether or not he can be lured away from Pittsburgh to join the pro ranks. However, if he goes where most project him, in the third-to-fifth round range, he'll have to think hard about going professional.

Video

Elvin Soto - C - University of Pittsburgh (2013-03-09 vs. Youngstown State) (via Jeff Reese)

2013 MLB Draft Profile: Malik Collymore, 2B/SS, Port Credit Secondary School (ONT)

2013-05-23T16:30:05Z

Summary

Malik Collymore has played middle infield almost exclusively during his high school days, and there's a good chance he stays there, but he also played at third base in the Perfect Game Pre-Draft Showcase, where he shone.

The moment I saw Collymore's swing, I rushed to find any and all information on him that I could. There isn't a lot. To make sure I wasn't crazy, I emailed Brooks, who took one look and fell just as hard in love as I had. There isn't a lot not to like about Collymore. His 60 time has been clocked as low as 6.54, which is in the 98th percentile among his entire prep class. He throws 90mph across the diamond. He has a beautiful right-handed swing: Very direct to the ball, everything in line, extension and lift out front, quick hands, pull-side power with flashes of excellent extension, good weight shift. He has great range, although his footwork and balance will need some refinement.

MLB Floor

Collymore could turn into something of a super utility player; he's got the speed and range to roam the outfield, the quick hands and arm strength to play all over the infield. There isn't a lot this guy isn't capable of, defensively, with normal development. His bat will play enough to keep him in the mix, and managers will look for a way to keep it in the lineup.

MLB Ceiling

It's high. It's really high. We're only just now beginning to understand what Collymore is capable of, but with plus bat speed and a good hitting tool, not to mention his speed, he could be a premier leadoff man. His style of play, his quick hands, his instincts, and his bat speed remind me of Rickie Weeks.

Projected Round

Collymore is a tough one to project. Many sources think he'll be available somewhere in the 4th-10th rounds, but a couple of strong showcase performances have all but guaranteed that he'll be gone by the end of the third, and likely somewhere toward the middle or the end of the second round.

Quotes and Video

Perfect Game:

Collymore had the fastest 60 time at 6.54 seconds. Has a large athletic frame; he showed good fielding actions and threw 90 mph across the diamond. Malik showed great bat speed during his BP round, hitting three homeruns in 10 cuts.

Baseball Prospectus:

The six-foot, 190 pound infielder creates good leverage in his swing and already boasts solid pull-side power while showing an ability to drive the oppo gap. Collymore should get every chance to stick in the infield, but possesses enough athleticism and foot speed to shift to an outfield corner down the line, if needed.

He's already homered off the GCL Astros:

Watch how quickly his hands get to the ball here. Very impressive:

2013 MLB Draft Profile: Kyle Serrano, RHP, Farragut HS (TN)

2013-05-23T15:30:05Z

Summary

High school pitchers are always raw pitchers in just about every way. However, Kyle Serrano is about about refined as you'll find with a high school pitcher. He still has a long way to go, but in comparison to other high schoolers, he's polished. That is all due to him growing up around baseball and good college coaching. Why? Because his dad is Dave Serrano, the head coach at University of Tennessee and formerly of Cal State Fullerton.

Serrano is only six foot and 185 pounds, so he stands on the small end and thus has grown into his body more than other prospects. He could get a little bigger but he will always be on the small end and will have to work to make sure he gets the most out of his frame. That's where the good coaching has come in as he uses his whole body to generate his low 90's velocity.

His arm action isn't the safest action, as it gets "whippy" as he comes out of his windup and into his delivery. His arm is internally rotated in the first half of his windup and I'd like to see it a little more externally rotated for injury risk. Although, that may come as a sacrifice to his velocity as that internal rotation allows for more momentum into more external rotation for forearm lag.

The good part is that he has good late-leg drive that allows for him to explode to the plate in his delivery. He then adds good hip-shoulder separation that generates good rotational force and his arm becomes a fast moving lever to deliver the ball. There's arm effort, but he uses his body more than a lot of big armed pitching prospects.

He controls and commands his pitches well for his age. The mechanics don't allow for much improvement in this area, but it's currently advanced for his age group despite projecting to be just average.

His fastball projects to be an above-average pitch despite just average velocity in the 90-92 range with maybe an extra tick or two. He throws an average slider in the low-80's and can sometimes dip lower. It has good bite and depth. His third pitch is his changeup which projects to be an average pitch with good fade in the high 70's and low-80's.

Floor

Reliever. He has pretty average stuff, but at least has a chance for three of them. If they end up as below average pitches, he already has a good understanding of pitching and could have some success as a middle reliever.

Ceiling

Middle rotation starter. His best shot is that all three of his pitches turn into average or slightly above average pitches. It will allow for him to get outs against left and right handed hitters. But, the pitches aren't plus pitches and lead to groundouts at their finest and not high strikeout rates to put him into the upper tier of pitchers.

Projected Draft Round

Kyle Serrano is rated in the 30's and 40's depending on the source so he's projected in the late first round and early second round areas.

College Commitment: University of Tennessee

Will he sign?

The lure of playing for his father at the University of Tennessee has to be an attractive option for a kid. Coaches change regularly, but college baseball doesn't have the same rate of movement as other sports and all indications are that Dave Serrano will there for awhile. So, there may be some risk with him to sign, however it's not documented as such at this point.

Bibliography

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MLB.com

Farragut High School in Tennessee has had its fair share of talent come through its ranks, from 2004 first-rounder Kyle Waldrop to 2011 sixth-rounder Nick Delmonico. Now it's Serrano's turn.

Serrano has the chance to have three Major League average or better offerings from a strong and athletic pitcher's frame. His fastball will sit in the 91-92 mph range, with good movement, and he can reach back for a little extra. His sharp slider has the chance to be a strikeout pitch in the future, and he keeps his changeup down in the zone with good arm speed and deception.

Serrano has good mound presence and has a good idea of what he's doing on the mound. That's not a huge surprise considering that if he doesn't go pro, he's headed to the University of Tennessee to play for his father, Dave Serrano.

2013 MLB Draft Positional Rankings: Outfielders

2013-05-23T15:00:11Z

Outside of the college pitching, this might be strongest group in the 2013 draft. The outfield group has loads of good athletes with long frames that will continue to add strength and power as they develop. But, it's not all just projectable power hitters in this class. There are several center fielders with leadoff hitter upside and even some standouts in centerfield who can still be middle of the order bats. It's a high upside group this year.

1. Clint Frazier

Frazier is an explosive, red-haired fireplug with the best bat speed we've seen in the draft since Javier Baez, if not longer. The 6'0" phenom from Loganville, GA plays with reckless abandon and is the most talented all-around hitter in the 2013 class. His swing is a vicious cut that makes his bat almost invisible in real time, and he has above average raw power that he maximizes completely with his hitting mechanics. He shows a great understanding for the nuances of hitting and should rise quickly for a high schooler. In the field, he has above average speed and an above average to plus arm, and is around 40% likely to stick in center field. Frazier should be a lock top 5 selection based on his combination of plus hit and power tools. -kyuss94

2. Austin Meadows

Meadows looks the part of a big leaguer. He's got tons of tools, including the speed to play center field, the arm to play the corner outfield spots, and the power to play wherever he ends up. His contact tool has some question marks surrounding it, but when he squares the ball up, it goes a long way. A potential center fielder who can crank 25-30 home runs is a hard guy to pass up, so it's no wonder a lot of teams love him. -Anthony Boyer

3. Hunter Renfroe

Renfroe has always had his fair share of tools but not until this season, has the stats backed up what scouts loved. He's shown the ability to hit for a good average and now he's showing plus power. Although, his ability to hit for average may not translate to pro ball immediately because there is some swing and miss to him at the plate. Combined with decent speed and a very strong arm, he projects to be an above-average defensive right fielder as well. -subber10

4. Phillip Ervin

Ervin gets discounted because of his size – 5'10", 195 – but he's been one of the more productive college bats in this year's class. He's a true four-tool player, and I think he can play centerfield in the Majors, which increases his value as a prospect. He has the potential for three above-average tools (defense, hit, speed) and two average tools (power and arm). I think there's .280, 20 HR, 20 SB potential, with good defense, here. One of the safer picks in the draft. -jsams

5. Austin Wilson

Though his college career has been somewhat turbulent, Wilson showed fairly well this year after returning from injury and still possesses the prodigious power that once had him in the discussion for the first overall selection. Wilson is a behemoth with plus-plus raw power and a rapid, level swing that should allow him to hit for some average to go along with his power. His arm is also plus and he has the range to play right field despite his massive size. Though far from a finished product as a hitter, Wilson has the combination of mechanics and tools to be a star, and should still be a mid-first round selection despite how long it took him to get his feet under him at Stanford. -kyuss94

6. Aaron Judge

Aaron Judge is a big-bodied, athletic specimen. 6'7", 230 pounds, with great athleticism, he looks more like a tight end than a baseball player. With an accurate, but not overly-strong arm and above-average speed, it's difficult to peg where he'll land, but left field may be the final answer. -Anthony Boyer

7. Cord Sandberg

A top 250 football recruit as a quarterback and the nephew of Ryne, Sandberg flashes five tools and could be a steal if a team lures him away from Mississippi State, where he is committed as their future signal-caller. Cord has 60 speed on the 20-80 scale, and his quarterback background shows in his plus outfield arm. His lefty swing is very pretty, and he generates backspin and loft that makes full use of his significant power. Though somewhat raw at this point, Sandberg has the potential to make an impact in all phases of the game. -kyuss94

8. Billy McKinney

The 6'1", 195 pound McKinney differs from the typical HS hitting prospect. Usually HS hitters are drafted based on tools and projectablity, neither of which McKinney has a lot of. Instead, he's one of the more polished HS bats in the draft, and presents a relatively safe pick. The Major League comparison I made early in the season is David Murphy. He's going to be at least average everywhere, with potential to be an above-average hitter. His swing is extremely simple and effective. He's committed to TCU. -jsams

9. Josh Hart

A HS centerfielder with true five-tool potential. He's already a plus-plus runner with a good arm, profiling as a Major League centerfielder. He's shown signs of a good hit tool, with some power potential. That said, his swing scares me. I'm not a swing expert, but to my eyes, it lacks balance and fluidity. He has decent bat speed, but unless his swing gets fixed, he may struggle against advanced pitching. The 6'1", 190 pound OF is committed to Georgia Tech. -jsams

10. Ryan Boldt

A plus runner with a strong arm, Boldt is a centerfield leadoff hitter in the making. A clean swing that results in consistent contact. He's probably never going to be a home run hitter, but with his toolset, he'll make up for it in other areas. -Anthony Boyer

11. Trey Ball

This is the best two-way prospect in this years draft class as he projects to be mid-to-top of the rotation top starter as a left-handed pitcher, but also projects to be a good left-handed hitter with pop. His long levers allows for him to generate some strong leverage, especially as he fills out his lanky frame and could provide above-average to plus power. He has a really nice swing as well and could hit for an above-average batting average if all breaks well. For a kid his size, he runs pretty well and he has plenty of arm to project as an above-average defensive right-fielder. -subber10

12. Mason Smith

Joining Joe Martarano in a strong Idaho high school crop, Smith is an above average athlete with projection in his frame and significant raw power. His swing is quick and he generates a lot of bat speed, but he needs to work on loosening up his mechanics and using all fields more. He plays with a lot of energy in the field and should be a fine defender at an outfield corner. His bat speed and power are his mealtickets, and he shows the makings of a great swing and approach. There's a lot of offensive upside here if a team is willing to be patient with him. -kyuss94

13. Michael Lorenzen

The two-way college player at Cal State Fullerton is known for his outstanding defense and plus-arm in centerfield. At the plate, he leaves much to be desired. Not many believe he'll be able to hit enough to get his standout defense in the lineup on a daily basis. Drew Stubbs with less power is his upside, where as Brandon Barnes is his Major League floor. If hitting doesn't work out, a bullpen spot could be in his future, as he closes in college, with a solid fastball/slider combo. -jsams

14. Justin Williams

Williams has the ability to be an impact player, with plus-plus raw power, good speed, and a strong arm. He can profile at any corner infield or outfield position. A 6'3", 215-pounder with projectability and good athleticism. -Anthony Boyer

15. Terry McClure

McClure is a plus athlete and it shows in his play defensively. He's a good center-fielder and projects to stay there, which is a good thing because his arm is just average at best and couldn't handle a move to right. Every thing he does is quick, including his bat speed. However, his hands and back elbow are really high in swing and makes it very long which limits the impact of his quickness. He has some work to do, but the tools are there to be at least average across the board. -subber10

16. Dane McFardland

This kid has potential to be an impact bat as he fills out his frame to add strength. He could hit for a lot of power down the road but needs time to develop. He already has good bat speed and has good leverage from his frame so already hits for good power with metal bats. However, the long swing needs to be toned down. He posts above-average times in the 60, but will likely see his speed decline as he fills out and will need to be a corner outfielder. That corner will probably be left with his below-average arm strength. -subber10

17. KJ Woods

The 6'4", 210 pound Woods is big man with huge raw power and a huge arm. His power/arm combo fit a potential RF profile, and he has just enough athleticism to make it work. If not, he'll end up at first, which strips his cannon-arm of most of it's value. There are definitely concerns about his hit tool, but his power is hard to ignore. Although he's raw at the plate, I do like his swing, and think it's something you can work with. He's committed to South Carolina. -jsams

18. Billy Roth

A big righty with a smooth swing, good raw power, and a great awareness of the strike zone. Generates a lot of leverage in his swing. Two-way player who threw in the low 90s. -Anthony Boyer

19. Michael O'Neill

O'Neill is kind of a tweener where he doesn't quite have enough speed to be a center fielder, but doesn't really have the power for a corner spot. He'll need to cut down on the strikeouts to provide enough offense to demand an everyday role. He's one of the safer bats in the lower half of this list, but lacks upside. Decent hitter and will be a decent defender. -subber10

20. Matthew McPhearson

Speed and line-drive approach make McPhearson an interesting prospect. He has plus speed that work well in center field and on the base paths. However, his size and swing plane allow for little projection for power. If everything breaks right, he could be a good a lead-off hitter who can stretch singles into doubles or take second on a stolen base. -subber10

Honorable Mention

Jordan Paroubeck, Stephen Wrenn, Anfernee Grier, Ivan Wilson

Next Up: Pitchers

2013 MLB Draft Profile: Hunter Dozier, SS/3B, Stephen F. Austin

2013-05-23T14:30:06Z

Summary

Here is a guy that could be a late-first rounder that nobody was talking about as such at the beginning of the year. That's what happens when you play in a conference that doesn't normally have a lot of talent and you consistently play weak opponents. However, Hunter Dozier has continued his development and scouts are buying into tools and his stats. Here is what I mean by his stats.

H	2B	3B	HR	BB	IBB	k	avg
62	13	1	5	12	1	34	0.315
81	22	1	10	29	5	42	0.357
78	23	0	17	34	9	35	0.394

He's just consistently gotten better. The power surge this season is what really have scouts turning their heads. He's a big kid as he stands 6-4 and weighs 220 pounds. The power is what they wanted to see before they bought in. At his size, staying at shortstop is an unlikely proposition as there are very few examples of shortstop that size and so he would need to show power that could play elsewhere on the diamond in order to be a prospect.

His defense just needs work. He doesn't have great range but he has the tools to be good defensively, although it is more likely to be at third base. But, that's not a bad thing since he has the arm for it and his bat profiles nicely there. His arm and bat could actually work as a corner outfielder as well. Hey, he was a Texas High School quarterback.

There's not much on the internet about Dozier and it's impossible to find video of him. In fact, I only found one video that includes a single home run from him. VIDEO (HR at .40) All we know is that he creates good leverage and he's extremely strong. That generates power and if once he gets with some good hitting coaches, he may be able to do even more damage. Above average power is not out of the question.

As for hitting for average and plate discipline, the jury is still very much out. He's drawn some good walk rates and not terrible strikeout rates, but it's poor competition and can't be trusted fully. His average has always been good and it's still questionable. Reports seem to think he'll be about average in both departments.

Floor

A major league floor is hard to pin on him with the small amount of information on him, but I could see him being a valuable bench player as pinch-hitter with some pop. His arm and athleticism allows for some versatility from 3B to corner outfield positions.

Ceiling

His ceiling is quite high given his raw athleticism, strong arm, above-average power potential, and chance to hit for a good average. There are questions on how a lot of that will transfer to pro-ball from his low-level competition, but if they do, he's an above-average player both defensively and at the plate.

Projected Draft Round

He's been mocked in the first round by a few mocks and he's rated consistently in the 30's and 40's. That leaves him as small chance for a late first round pick all the way to an early second round pick.

Will he sign?

This shouldn't be an issue for Dozier. He's creating buzz and his stock is as high as it's going to get given he won't ever face better competition outside of a chance to go to the Cape this summer.

Bibliography

MLB.com

There are amateur shortstops that can stay up the middle. Then there are those who will likely need to move to third base. Dozier fits in the latter category, but it looks like he has the profile for the hot corner.

Big and strong, Dozier was putting up gaudy numbers during his junior season to move up Draft boards as the spring progressed. The ball jumps off of his bat, and he projects to have plenty of power for the position. He has good defensive reactions, which should work just fine at third, and he has a very strong arm.

Dozier looks the part, a tall and lean athlete who used to play quarterback in the Texas high school ranks. He's not among the few elite college bats in this class, but he's not too far behind them, either.

Astros Minor League Recap (5/22): Jake Buchanan And 'Baby Pedro'

2013-05-23T14:00:07Z

Jake Buchanan Allows a Run

He is the most interesting non-prospect in the system. He hasn't allowed an earned run since April 26 (!!!). He is, Jake Buchanan. One of the big storylines of Wednesday night was Buchanan's scoreless inning streak being snapped at 25, the run wasn't even earned!

Buchanan is having the least dominant, dominant season of all-time. The 23-year-old groundball artist has walked a minuscule four batters in 53.1 inning this season, while allowing only five earned runs – good for a 0.84 ERA. This after finishing 2013 with a combined ERA of 5.25 between AA/AAA. With 50+ innings in the books, we're only a few exits away from the SSS freeway turning into #FreeJakeBuchanan beltway. Significant regression has to happen, right?

Meanwhile, Buchanan's blistering start to the season has forced fans to take notice. He received some serious air-time on the latest Minor League Podcast, where Brooks compared him to former Astro, Chris Sampson, and talked Tim into re-naming the podcast 'Grounded, with Jake Buchanan', starting next week. One of those things isn't true, but I highly recommend listening anyway. And start paying attention to Jake Buchanan, dammit, before he turns back into a 5.00+ ERA pumpkin.

River Bandits Lose Fifth Straight

Quad Cities is struggling. Coming into the night, they had lost four straight games. Momentum seemed to be on their side when they scored two runs in the eighth and another in the ninth to force extra innings. Then they allowed seven runs in the 11th and go back to the drawing board tomorrow. Outside of Carlos Correa, most of the "name" prospects are struggling at the plate. Hopefully they catch fire soon.

Hooks Rock Top Prospect

Between the aforementioned Jake Buchanan and #SPRINGERDINGERS, the Astros AA-affiliate own the best record in the Texas League. On Wednesday night they showed it, when given the tough task of facing the Kansas City Royals' second best pitching prospect, Yordano Ventura.

The unreasonably nicknamed "Baby Pedro" has touched triple digits multiple times in his career, and shown flashes of dominance in 2013. He had a two-start stretch this season when he pitched 11 IP, allowed only 3 H, while striking out 20. Besides that, he hadn't given up more than two runs all season. Until tonight, that is, when he couldn't make it out of the fifth inning. He finished with a line of 4.1 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 4 K. Springer, Santana, Burgess and Stassi were the main culprits of the onslaught, as expected.

Oklahoma City (27-18)

Jonathan Villar - 1-5, K
Jake Elmore - 2-5, HR, E
Brett Wallace - 2-3, 2 BB
Fernando Martinez - 1-5, HR, K
Mark Krauss - 1-4
Carlos Perez - 1-2, BB
Ross Seaton - 6 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 3 K, 8/3 GO/AO
Jason Stoffel - 2 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
Eric Berger - 1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K

Corpus Christi (26-19)

George Springer - 1-3, 2 BB
Domingo Santana - 1-3, 2B, 2 BB, K, SB, Assist
Erik Castro - 3-4, 2B
Max Stassi - 2-3, 2B, BB, K
Michael Burgess - 2-3, HR
Jake Buchanan - 5 IP, 7 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 5/4 GO/AO

Lancaster (25-20)

Quad Cities (23-21)

Teoscar Hernandez - 1-6, K
Carlos Correa - 2-5
Miles Hamblin - 2-3
Rio Ruiz - 1-4, BB, K
Roberto Pena - 1-4
Jobduan Morales - 0-1, K
Ariel Ovando - 0-4, K
Jordan Jankowski - 4 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 6 K, 2/1 GO/AO
Brian Holmes - 3 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 2 K, 1/3 GO/AO

*BOLD indicates top prospect*

2013 MLB Draft Profile: AJ Puk, LHP, Washington HS (IA)

2013-05-23T13:30:06Z

It's hard for the state of Iowa to produce first round prospects given their cold weather that inhibits spring ball. In fact, the state has never produced a first round pick straight out of high school. A.J. Puk may be the top prospect out of the state this year, it's unlikely that he bucks that trend to be the first. He has very interesting upside as a two-way player, but he is too raw to gamble on with a top pick.

Puk has some talent at the plate as a left-handed first baseman with potential to have above-average pop. However, given that he's a lefty with such great size (6-7, 220) and raw ability to pitch, teams have a lot to dream on as a pitching prospect. Puk potentially has a better floor as a position player but the ceiling is higher on the mound which is why teams are paying more attention to him on the mound.

Puk has a very lean and long frame that has room to add mass and strength. His fastball is already a low 90's pitch and could add a few ticks as he develops. It has very good downward plane on it thanks to his size height and 3/4 arm slot. The velocity also plays up a bit because his long legs allow for a pretty long stride and shortens that 60 feet 6 inch distance to even less. He also throws a curve which is a very raw pitch that has good spin but inconsistent break. It can get a little flat at times while others it has has good bite. Also has a changeup that he maintains his arm speed with, but hasn't used it much.

Despite a long stride to his delivery, he doesn't have a lot of leg drive and falls into his lead leg that he steps toward first base with some. That leads to a little more rotation over the leg and creates more cross action with his pitches. His arm action is fairly clean with good arm speed but the lower body is a little uncoordinated in his delivery. Because of his long stride and lack of leg drive, his balance is a little behind his front leg and he has to kick his lead leg back in order to maintain balance after his release. That leads to poor balance in the delivery and inconsistencies for his release and control. It's a raw delivery but he doesn't have any major red flags for injury in his mechanics.

Floor

His height alone creates a difficult plane to hit so his major league floor could still be a reliever that specializes in groundballs. I wouldn't say that he profiles as a late-inning reliever however.

Ceiling

AJ might be able to develop into a mid-rotation starter and pending his development with the changeup and curve, the left-handedness could allow for a #2 on a bad team. His low-90's velocity plays up and the curve and changeup from the left side can be difficult pitches on hitters. A realistic ceiling though is a #3.

Projected Draft Round

He's a top 100 talent, but he's on the back end of that range. A team in love with his frame could pop him in the second but the third or fourth round is a more realistic draft range.

College Commitment: Florida

Will he sign?

Good question. He wants warmer weather so he can play and develop so he's confident that he's going to get better. But, does that mean he thinks he should be drafted way earlier than he will? It's possible. And, the draw of the Gators is intriguing.

Bibliography

Baseball America

When he’s on the mound, Puk has a fastball that can reach the low 90s. He’s still raw as a pitcher, but his size, stuff and inexperience gives scouts a lot to dream on. Committed to Florida, Puk has a chance to be a two-way threat in college, much like Brian Johnson was the last the three years for the Gators. Puk has more upside on the pound, but could have a similarly potent bat. The program’s success the last several years drew the big southpaw to Gainesville—as did the warmer weather. Puk goes to Washington High in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, where high school baseball seasons are played in the summer and teams usually don’t getoutside until the end of May.

Perfect Game

AJ Puk is a 2013 LHP/1B with a 6-7 220 lb. frame from Cedar Rapids, IA who attends Washington HS. Long and strong physical build, looks like he's grown another inch. Compact quick arm action, hides ball well in back, high 3/4's arm slot with good downhill angle, is not getting much front side help in his delivery at present. Fastball topped out at 89 mph, consistent large flat running action, works fastball side to side and stays down in the zone, good shape to 74 mph curveball while flashing bite, tends to leave curveball arm side, showed good change up with nice arm speed, has deception and cruised through 3 innings with 9 K's. Aggressive left handed swing with lift, very good bat speed, first move tends to be opening front side, best when staying closed and driving ball to the middle of the field instead of pull, crushed one ball to CF for a triple, high ceiling hitter. Ran 7.48 in the 60. Good student, signed with Florida.