FanPost

Final 2016 FaBIO Ratings: Houston Astros MLB Pitchers


This FanPost quantifies how starters and relievers of the Houston Astros graded out relative to American League (and National League, in the cases of Josh Fields and Erik Kratz) pitching peers of that same persuasion per my Fielding- and Ballpark-Independent Outcomes (FaBIO) evaluation system during the 2016 season.

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Methods

Each non-bunt, non-pitcher-batting plate appearance is sorted into 1 of the following 12 categories, and the pitcher is charged with the league's typical 2016 runs value for said event.

1. BB or HBP, 2. K, 3. IFFB, 4. GB to pull-third, 5. GB to center-third, ..., 7. LD to pull-third, ..., 12. OFFB to oppo-third

Each pitcher's final runs per plate appearance value is compared to the league peer group's mean and standard deviation for that parameter to obtain their Overall Rating, which can be further split to examine how each pitcher performed against opposite-handed batters (OHB) and same-handed batters (SHB). A Batted Ball Rating is determined similarly after omitting all BB+HBP or K events (individual components of the Batted Ball Rating are also computed such as GB Rating, IFFB Rating, etc., using GB per batted ball, IFFB per batted ball, ...). A Control (CTL) Rating (using BB+HBP per PA) and K Rating (using K/PA) are also determined. A Youth Rating is determined by comparing the pitcher's age relative to the mean and standard deviation (SD) for that role (SP or RP) in their league.

Each rating will be expressed on a 100 to 0 scale where the number indicates the expected percentage of league peers beaten on the stat. 50 denotes league-average, 84 is one SD above league-average ("plus", indicated by a green number in tables), 97 is two SD above league-average ("plus plus"), 16 is one SD below league-average ("minus", red number in tables), and 3 is two SD below league-average ("minus minus"). Asterisks denote southpaws.

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Results: 2016 FaBIO Ratings of Houston Astros

Starting-Skewed Pitchers

Beyond simply how Lance McCullers' April and August/September arm-related absences adversely impacted the club's win-loss fortunes, the premature end to his 2016 also denied us an opportunity to see if he could sustain and post what could have been one of the top all-time strikeout plus batted ball profile seasons in franchise history. Among AL SP, only Rich Hill's 99 Overall Rating earned during the Athletics portion of his year (311 batters faced) and rumored offseason trade target Chris Archer's 97 Overall Rating topped McCullers' 97 mark. Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh graded out rather well in what would be considered off years by their recent performance standards and that gives us some strong inklings that each will be much better run-avoiders in 2017 than they were in 2016.

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The MiLB FaBIO data of Joe Musgrove suggests that his Control Rating (especially) and Batted Ball Rating will climb as he acclimates to MLB competition and that should thrust him into an above-average-performing MLB SP in short order; that 2016 marked a third consecutive season in which Musgrove's MiLB Overall Rating was in the 90s makes such gradual improvements at the MLB level all the more likely. The numbers of the now out-of-options Brad Peacock do not seem too far off from what one might project for him over a larger sample of MLB SP duty - the volume of loud contact outpacing the volume of strikeouts with the net result being a back of rotation performance profile. Mike Fiers fared better down the stretch to rescue what had been an awful 4 Overall Rating season at the All-Star Break; Keuchel was the other big second-half riser among the starters, having posted a 61 Overall Rating at the same milepost.

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Relief-Skewed Pitchers

With apologies to Tyler White, FaBIO's fantastic four of the 2016 Astros bullpen were Luke Gregerson, Michael Feliz, Will Harris, and Ken Giles (thanks to a strong finishing kick). The plate appearance outcomes generated by Gregerson and Harris were similar, though Gregerson got there via a sinker-slider forward splits route whereas Harris reached a similar destination via a cutter-curve reverse splits approach. Feliz and Giles also display similarities that stem from each relying on a high-velocity-four-seamer/slider combo that produces far more whiffs than weak batted ball contact.

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Josh Fields rebounded to post a 98 Overall over 96 batters faced as a Dodger after only mustering a 34 over 71 batters faced as an Astro. Jandel Gustave posted solid numbers in his first taste of MLB action though one should probably expect those control and batted ball ratings to be reversed over a larger sample of MLB batters faced given his MiLB performance record. James Hoyt, who posted a 100 Overall Rating in 2016 AAA action, broke even in his first exposure to MLB batters despite being victimized at inopportune times by the pulled OFFB. On the one hand fellow 2016 MLB debutant Chris Devenski was unfortunate to surrender such a high percentage of LD per batted ball; on the other he was probably very fortunate not to surrender more singles given that bias though his "Changeup of Death"-fueled deception may have had a hand in that fortuitous outcome. More than anything it was the steep decline in K rating that did Tony Sipp in this time around as he has often sported a louder batted ball profile during his career. Don't dismiss David Paulino and Brady Rodgers on account of their goose egg FaBIO debuts just yet as each posted an Overall Rating in the 90s while working as a starter during the 2016 MiLB campaign (data to be published later in the offseason).

The big Overall Rating risers in the Astros second half bullpen were Giles (up from 61 at the All-Star Break) and Devenski (up from 11); Sipp was the lone large faller (down from 27).

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Results: Houston Astros of Tomorrow, Now, and Then

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New Astro Charlie Morton

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In the seminal stages of FaBIO circa 2012 to 2103, early offseason two-year free agent signee Morton often cropped up as a performance comparable for better-case outcome scenarios involving Lucas Harrell and Jarred Cosart. That variety of pitcher struggles at the CTL/K aspect of pitching but is so accomplished at inducing weak contact that they need only be somewhat closer to an average CTL/K performer than they are to a minus CTL/K performer in order to rate as a league-average overall performer. In the case of Morton one can spot that at his worst he has posted two league average Overall Rating seasons with the other semi-full-season of 2013 rating in the vicinity of half plus territory. League-average performance would be a very acceptable 2017 outcome for Morton coming off a year almost completely lost to injury and represent a definite upgrade over what the 3 F's (Fiers, Feldman, and Fister) have contributed to the Astros starting rotation over the prior two seasons.

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Lance McCullers

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One would be hard-pressed to conjure up an MLB RHSP who stifles LHB to this extent without aid of a viable changeup and that only reaffirms the exceptional effectiveness of McCullers' arsenal of breaking balls against opposited-handed batters. In an ideal world McCullers would gradually improve his control, but that need not be a pressing development goal given how elite of a K artist and weak-contact-inducer he is at present.

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Dallas Keuchel

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Among the plethora of green ratings Keuchel earned in his 2015 Cy Young campaign, the K Rating is the one that will be toughest for him to reproduce moving forward. In spite of that there remains room for control and batted ball profile gains to be realized in 2017 - more frequently avoiding pulls on those rare occasions when he does surrender an OFFB should do wonders for his run prevention ability.

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Collin McHugh

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Though McHugh is unlikely to recapture the strikeout magic from his sterling 2014 rookie debut, he remains an extremely solid to good MLB SP across the board upon examination of these sorts of metrics (and in the realm of salary economics, as well).

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Mike Fiers

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Curious swings from 2015 to 2016 in the K, GB, IFFB, and OFFB Avoid columns suggest that Fiers employed an alternative pitching approach during 2016 that produced much poorer results relative to his 2015 and 2014 MLB ratings.

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Luke Gregerson

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That Gregerson went to his slider more frequently during 2016 might explain the greater forward bias in his OHB/SHB splits. Meanwhile, it seems rather likely that his Control Rating will rise in 2017. The larger takeaway from this table should be just how much better Gregerson has been in his two seasons with the club than he was in the two that preceded his signing of the three-year free agency contract.

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Michael Feliz

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My recommendation would be to stick with Feliz in the 2017 bullpen due to a combination of that: 1) he performed elitely in that role during the 2016 MLB season, and 2) his batted ball profile has rated subpar since 2013 (short-season A competition). In short, don't fix it if it ain't broke ... or at least not until the batted ball profile improves enough to justify the experiment.

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Will Harris

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In contrast to a season ago, Harris sustained his hot start for the duration and posted some of the better relief numbers in the league. The 2016 FaBIO numbers of Harris epitomize a quality-cutter with decent-to-good breaking ball statistical outcomes profile that produces reverse splits with better performance against opposite-handed batters than same-handed batters. Some, inclusive of Harris himself, have likened him in that regard to semi-recent Astro Mark Melancon and one who glimpses below can appreciate just how similar the duo were on the FaBIO scales during 2016.

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As shown still further below, Melancon has a lengthy track record of posting that profile at the big league level. The bonus for the Astros is that if Harris can maintain that caliber of performance over the next three seasons then they stand to be paying that pitcher a total of about $10M via arbitration to pitch in a set-up to pre-set-up role that is more befitting of that skillset; meanwhile the Giants will be paying the same effective pitcher $62M over the next four to be a closer (it would be unwise for Melancon to opt out after the second year with $19M guaranteed over each of the final two).

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Ken Giles

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Though still equipped with one the game's top bat-missing sliders, Giles has had trouble riding his 4-seamer up enough to induce IFFB and avoid LD ever since his breakout 2014 campaign. This would stand to be the key performance parameter which left unchanged will keep him down in the second or third tier of closers as opposed to ranking in the upper echelon of them. On the plus side his high effective velocity on that pitch results in lately struck balls when OFFB are hit and that that limits the extra bases potential per OFFB.

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Chris Devenski

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That line drives had seldom appeared so prominently on Devenski's FaBIO scorecard as during 2016 would seem to indicate that the 2017 LD Avoid Rating will move much closer to or to the positive side of league average and that will pull the Batted Ball Rating up a similar amount. In an anticipated return of Devenski to relief work, I would project that the Control Rating will fall a tick or two in 2017 while his K Rating climbs and especially so against opposite-handed batters, with his trademark changeup being deployed somewhat later in the count during 2017 than it was in 2016. Along the lines of the earlier Feliz argument, it seems advisable to avoid trying Devenski as a starter again until he demonstrates that he can post a passable or better batted ball profile as a big league reliever.

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Tony Sipp

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One can plainly see that the vital skill Sipp lost in 2016 was his ability to get the K and especially so against RHB. Sipp has long been short in terms of possessing the sort of breaking ball that shuts down same-handed batters, and that keeps the need for a match-up sort of lefty in play for the organization looking to 2017 and beyond (the Astros are by no means the only MLB club in search of that same southpaw).

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Former Astro Vince Velasquez

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Velasquez stands to be one of the game's premier strikeout artists among SP for the near term. Though he surrenders OFFB at an alarming rate they are very, very, very seldom pulled owing mostly to the plus or better effective velocity of his four-seamer, ultimately limiting the percentage of extra-base-hits realized off the pitch.

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Former Astro Mike Foltynewicz

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Foltynewicz was surprisingly solid to good in 2016 thanks to gains realized across the board in his pitching profile and particularly in the realm of batted ball profile. Though he will be very unlikely to simultaneously maintain such a high IFFB Rating and high LD Avoid Rating, Foltynewicz appears to be a far more viable middle-of-rotation MLB SP possibility moving forward than he did at this time a year ago (assuming that the recent blood clot problems in his throwing arm do not persist).

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