With a week to go until the trade deadline, two relievers have already been dealt. ESPN's Jerry Crasnick said up to 15 teams could be looking for relief help this summer.
Just talked to a scout who said, "There are 15 teams out there looking for relievers.'' #beefupthatpen
— Jerry Crasnick (@jcrasnick) July 21, 2014
If that's the situation, it makes sense that the Astros should at least field offers to deal away incumbent closer Chad Qualls and lefty Tony Sipp. Jon Heyman reports that Houston's not really having discussions on Dexter Fowler or Jason Castro right now and seem reluctant to deal any of their young starting pitchers. However, they have fielded talks on both Qualls and Sipp.
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Let's take a quick look at the market, what each players brings and who could be interested in trading for them.
The players
Jay Jaffe said the Astros could be unusually quiet at the trade deadline, in comparison to recent years. But, they could move both of their established relievers in Qualls and Sipp.
Qualls, 35, signed a two-year, $6 million contract with Houston last offseason with a third-year option. He's thrown 35 innings after sliding into Houston's closer role. Qualls has posted a 1.78 ERA this season with 11 saves and a 1-1 record, striking out 31 and walking just four. This marks the second straight season Qualls has posted an ERA under 3.00, after his 2.61 ERA in 62 inning with Miami last season.
Sipp, 31, was signed as a free agent after asking out of his Triple-A deal with the San Diego Padres. The left-hander now has a big-league contract worth $500,000 with the Astros and will be entering his second year of arbitration this winter. In 29 innings with the Astros, Sipp has an ERA of 2.45 with 41 strikeouts and seven walks.
The market price
Two relievers have been moved already to the Los Angeles Angels and the Detroit Tigers.
The Angels picked up Padres closer Huston Street and right-hander Trevor Gott for four minor league prospects. L.A. had to give up its top three prospets in the deal with another top 10 guy in a weak system. San Diego gets infielders Taylor Lindsey and Jose Rondon and pitchers R.J. Alvarez and Elliot Morris. Alvarez, 23, doesn't have great control, but could profile as a back-end reliever with overpowering stuff. Lindsey, 22, is a Triple-A second baseman hitting .247 this season. Rondon, 20, is a shortstop in High A ball who's hittting over .300. Morris, 22, is in High A and projects as a No. 4 starter.
The Tigers traded for Texas closer Joakim Soria, sending two young right-handers to the Rangers. Soria had a 2.70 ERA in 33 innings with 42 strikeouts and four walks. In return, Texas got 20-year-old Jake Thompson and 22-year-old Corey Knebel. Soria is under contract through 2015. Knebel, who's currently in Triple-A, profiles as a reliever with a fastball that averages 95 mph. Thompson, who just reached Double-A, profiles as a four-pitch starter according to John Sickels.
Given these returns, it's reasonable to expect Houston to get somewhere in the middle for Qualls. He's got team control left, just like Street (who has a team option for 2015) and Soria. He's also a "proven closer," with similar statistics this season. But, he doesn't have the track record of either guy, which suggests the price might be lower.
As for Sipp, neither player seems a good comparison, since he's not a closer and would likely be marketed as a lefty specialist. We haven't seen any of those guys moved yet, so it's hard to know how much the market will net for them.
The teams
Who's looking for help? Well, let's assume out of those 15 teams, all of them are in the playoff race. Let's also assume they have some inconsistency in the bullpen already, so we can check out who the bottom teams in bullpen statistics might be. Also, let's cross off Detroit and Anaheim from the list of teams looking for help, since they've already made trades.
That leaves these as the most likely suitors.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Mark Melancon has been very good since he was acquired from the Red Sox. Tony Watson has also been great for Pittsburgh in 47 innings. Pittsburgh has had success with Jared Hughes as a sinkerballing reliever and could be an intriguing destination for Qualls, as the the Bucs try to catch the Brewers.
Los Angeles Dodgers: When you're one of the spendingest teams in baseball, why not spend more? Sure, Kenley Jansen, J.P. Howell and Brandon League have been great, but who else do they have (har har har). This could be a nice spot for Sipp, as the Dodgers look to supplement a strong back end.
Tampa Bay Rays: Jake McGee has been outstanding since moving to the closer's role. They've also gotten a nice season from Brad Boxberger, but if the Rays continue this hot streak, they could work themselves into playoff contention. Pushing for a guy like Qualls might make sense, as they give themselves a backup option for McGee and a reliable eighth inning guy who's got some experience.
Milwaukee Brewers: Milwaukee has been very surprising this year, but the bullpen could use some bolstering. Zack Duke has been excellent, as has K-Rod. But, there's plenty of uncertainty there. Adding Qualls could help Milwaukee fend off the Cards, the Reds and the Pirates down the stretch. Too bad that farm system is a tad barren.
Cincinnati Reds: How much is a shot at a wild card berth worth? Would the Reds try to give up something valuable to catch one of the three teams ahead of them in the standings? Cincy already has a great 1-2 punch of Jonathan Broxton and Aroldis Chapman, which leaves Qualls to lock down the seventh inning for them.
Atlanta Braves: The Braves have one of the 10 best bullpens in baseball with Craig Kimbrell, Jordan Walden and Anthony Varvano all pitching well. But, they have a weakness against lefties, which is why Heyman says they've called on Sipp. His price tag and control make sense for the Braves.
Baltimore Orioles: In Jayson Stark's latest Rumblings column, he says the Orioles are looking for a lefty reliever who's not just a lefty killer. That fits Sipp's profile this season perfectly, which could be why Heyman linked the Orioles and Astros in that earlier piece. Certainly, the two teams have had dealings in the past and could be a fit this season.