In case you haven't heard, the Astros didn't sign their No. 1 overall pick, left-handed high school pitcher, Brady Aiken. The general public does not, and maybe never will, know all of the details that led to the collapse of the verbal agreement between the two sides.
The Astros are now afforded with the No. 2 pick in the 2015 draft plus the pick the Astros end up with due to their 2014 record. The Aiken snafu is yet another bump on what has been a rocky road back to prominence for the Astros. But how bad does it hurt for the Astros? General Manager Jeff Luhnow has constantly said he wants to turn Houston into a perennial contender, which leads us to this week's question.
On a scale of 1-10, with 10 being the worst, how badly does Brady Aiken's refusal to sign with Houston set back the Astros on their trek to becoming a perennial contender?
Starting Pitcher: Brooks Parker
2 maybe. It sucks right now. No doubt about that. It lowers the quality of the 2014 class and it makes the farm look weaker because that's one less possible top 25 prospect they would have had in the off-season.
However, the CBA is designed to prevent situations like this from actually being a real thorn in an organizations side. It makes it more of a thorn in a pinkie finger. It's a nuisance more than anything. By receiving the number 2 overall pick next year, the Astros will be able to draft a talent on the same level as Aiken along with another player on par as well as it appears they'll likely get another top 5 pick.
Next year's class looks to be another pretty good class. And in reality, the top of this draft wasn't great, it was the depth (see Fisher, Reed, and Davis) that made this class stand out, not top 5 talent. If next year's group ends up being better at the top, it really won't end up being a real issue. Having said that, the Astros still have to scout and sign those players next year.
Catcher: Alex Goodwin
It's great that you don't say missing out on Brady Aiken, because what the Astros most missed out on were Marshall and Nix. The Astros reportedly were very high on both of them. And, eliminating the 2015 draft from discussion as of right now, that's a pretty tough blow to stomach. Missing out on three high-ceiling HS pitchers takes away depth, trade bait, and possible long-term starters.
However...that 1.2 in the next draft looks pretty damn nice. We're almost assuredly going to be one of the worst four teams, so two top-5 picks gives us the ability to flat-out dominate the draft. We could have a draft equal to 2012, or even better. We thought 2012 would be our equivalent to the Cardinals' 2009 draft...2015 has even more potential.
I rate this a 4. This isn't close to an ideal situation, but it could definitely be worse.
First Baseman: Seth Drennan
3.
And this comes from taking an even average of rating a 6 based on public perception, player relations, agent relations, etc. When it comes to the rebuild and the "process," I say it's just a 1. Look at the last 3 drafts and the 1.2 has added a super impact talent in each year: Byron Buxton, Kris Bryant, and Tyler Kolek. The Astros will have the highest dollar allotment in the draft next year which should allow them to take even more talent that is supposed to be a tough sign. The 2015 draft just shot through the roof in terms of importance to this front office and to the rebuild. The 2015 draft will the be the vindication or the undoing of this front office.
Second baseman: Spencer Morris
I'm going to say 5.
From a pure, assets perspective, it's like a 2. Having two top 5 picks and the largest bonus pool in history allows them to make up for this rather easily if they can execute in the upcoming draft. They could end up with a duo of Mike Matuella and Brendan Rodgers, or something along those lines and instantly jump to the #1 farm system in MLB if things go according to plan.
However, this is a total PR nightmare, and there's a good chance that it could impact future draft negotiations, or even free agent acquisitions. That is what concerns me much more than losing out on Aiken and Nix.
Third Baseman: Matthew Hall
I love & hate this question. I'll give it a 4. Let's stipulate up front super seriously and with much stress that there is absolutely no way in hell to know. There are so many variables. There are known unknowns and probably a few 'unknown knowns'.
What would Aiken have given us? Absolutely no way to know. One could take the average or median career WAR of highly-rated left-handed high school pitchers over time (or whatever your preferred method) to guess at what he might have gotten us. But draft picks really are like lottery tickets. Most guys are going to fall into a certain range but every once in a while a guy becomes The Guy. If Aiken would have become a perennial all-star caliber pitcher then this hurt our rebuild immensely. (Same basic thing goes for Nix and possibly Marshall, obviously.)
What will the 1-2 give us? OMG, are you kidding me? We just *failed to sign* the 1-1 and we want to take a running stab at how much the 2015 1-2 is going to contribute? It's kind of like we exchanged a lottery ticket with one number partially scratched off for a new lottery ticket for one year from now.
Will agents and players, draft picks and FAs alike treat us differently, refusing to sign when they otherwise would because they don't like the way we do business or they think we're just a bunch of losing losers? Maybe. Who knows? I am guessing that over time it won't matter very much if at all but over the next year or so it could affect a few players here and there. I think the will be marginal but that's just a hunch.
Here's a possibility I don't think I've seen floated: rather than hurting the FO, putting people and plans on the hotseat, this could have possible effects. Maybe Crane is just as invested in success as Luhnow and will respond by figuring out a way to increase payroll or get the cable deal fixed. Stranger things have happened.
Shortstop: Chris Perry
One. And I'm serious.
Had Aiken been drafted, his MLB debut would have been in early 2017 at the earliest, and even that seems aggressive for a High Schooler. By 2017, Springer, Singleton, Correa, Tucker, Santana, Ruiz, Hernandez, Kemp, Gregor, and a bevy of excellent pitchers will have been in the majors for at least a full season. Additionally, by that point, Luhnow will have signed more free agents to fill the cracks. Aiken represented the first batch of players who would drive sustained success for a competitive Astros team -- but their getting back to competitiveness in the first place had very little to do with Brady Aiken. If the Astros aren't fighting for playoff spots by the time he would have gotten to the majors anyway, the Astros would have a lot bigger problems to worry about than why they didn't sign him this year. As it is, if the Astros draft a college player with the compensation pick next season, there's a real chance that that player will reach the majors earlier than Aiken would have anyway. The Aiken situation was messy and unpleasant, but it affected the Astros and their projected performance over the next few years very little.
Left Fielder: Illinibob
I'll say a 3.5. It's obvious to me that the front office decided that the risk in taking Aiken was only worthwhile if it included both Nix AND Marshall. And I truly think, based upon the negotiations, that Marshall was the guy they really wanted. If they were not getting Marshall, the risk in signing Brady NO UCL Aiken was too high, as compared to having 2 of the top 5 picks in next years draft.
Having said that, Luhnow comes out of this as a hardass, unwilling to sing Kumbaya with Aiken and Close, and the previous narrative of: They treat players as numbers/assets , gains strength and momentum. Does it hurt them down the road in future negotiations with either their own players, FA's or future draftees? Perhaps a bit. But in the long run, this is probably, to quote Shakespeare, something "full of sound and fury, signifying nothing."
Center Fielder: Brian Stevenson (ashitaka)
Honestly? I'll give it a 2, just because I don't want to say 1. Let's be very clear; I think this was the right move once the issue with his elbow was discovered. Signing him would have been a bigger setback than not, in my eyes. This is because of the compensation system. Next year's draft is looking very deep, and having two top-of-the-first-round picks, along with their bonus pool figures, gives us tremendous flexibility to do big things next year. This delayed gratification, not a disaster.
Becoming a perennial contender is, by it's very nature, a long-term goal. Delaying the infusion of talent by a year (and that's what this is; we're not losing talent, just delaying it's arrival) is a minor bump in the road. Aiken wouldn't have been MLB-ready for at least three years anyway, most likely. In the mean time, we already have a fairly young, talented rotation, and will likely add to it in free agency, or in the call up of Appel, Foltynewicz and other prospects. Marshall and Nix were even farther away from the Majors, especially Nix, who has a high ceiling, but a very low floor. I can't honestly think of any way in which this seriously affects the future of our MLB contention. This wasn't a guy who was expected to be in the majors in 12 months and fill an area of desperate need. It's a setback, but not a huge one, and certainly not one that should keep us from being competitive at the Major League level.
Right Fielder: Clack
1 or 2, like Chris and Brooks said. I start off with the bias that I wasn't a proponent of selecting Aiken; I never liked the odds of picking a high school pitcher with the 1-1 pick. Maybe it's fortuitous to identify the injury risk this early. As a consequence, it's not implausible that the Astros will be in a better position with the 1-2 pick next year. The talent level may be as good or better, and it's likely that a college pitcher or an advanced bat will make it to the majors faster than a high school pitcher selected in 2014.
I can't quantify the impact of a bad PR hit here. But my gut feeling is that it will be blip on the screen. Impact on future negotiations? That's even harder to guess. But my feeling is that this is more of an issue for certain media people and twitter talking heads than it is for agents and players. The main thing that talks to agents is money. And the Astros will be able to spend the most money in the next draft.
Utilityman: Curtis Leister
I'm at a 3. Long-term, this may not be nearly as bad as people are making it out to be. If we hit on two top five picks in 2015, people will forget about this really quickly.
However Aiken's future on it's own is what makes me uncertain. What if he does turn into Clayton Kershaw, if only for a couple of years even if the UCL becomes an issue? That's an ace lefty we don't have right in the middle of Luhnow's time period where we should be contenders.
I'm not as concerned about the negotiations and business side, and it's pretty much an unknown to us. The Astros look really bad on this to some baseball people, including agents, and others may see that this was a Catch-22 for the organization.
Setup Woman: Terri Schlather
3.25 - because I can't be like anyone else. In all seriousness, this is a small setback, not huge. I think it would be a smaller concern if Mark Appel wasn't struggling, but even with that, this will not sink the ship. There is still great talent at all levels of the farm system.
The real concern coming out of this has more to do with perception than reality. The Astros' front office walks away looking like they can't get it done, regardless of what happened behind the scenes. They look like they were big meanies. And whether they were or they weren't is immaterial because it's the perception that will persist. So until the next draft comes around and those negotiations occur none of us will know how severely the Astros' reputation was damaged for dealing with players and agents and that's my only negative in all this. I could have taken or left Brady Aiken, but you guys all know how I feel about the volatility and gamble of young talent.
Closer: David Spradley
3, It would've been great to add those arms into the system, but like others have said they wouldn't have had any impact on the big league team until many years down the road. If the team gets high quality position players at the top of next year's draft then I think we can forget about this debacle pretty quickly. On the other hand, I'm at a 10 that this front office can't do anything normal. If Aiken ends up lighting up someone else's double-A team in a few years and makes his major-league debut striking out 25 Astros in one game then I'll probably do penance by whipping myself with cords before fasting. God save the Astros.