College seniors are an interesting animal in the world of the MLB draft- they are often typecast as lower end talents who lack the upside of prep players and college underclassmen, but some of them are simply players who needed a full four years at college to hone their craft. That is the case with Maryland's Jake Stinnett, who as a junior was a productive member of the Terps' staff both as a starter and out of the pen, but he didn't appeal much to pro clubs given his middling strikeout and walk rates. After posting a 48/28 K/BB ratio in 2013, Stinnett kicked it up a notch this season as a full time starter. He has put up a pretty 2.53 ERA, but even more impressively he has shown a higher degree of dominance with a 113/26 K/BB in 96 IP to put himself on the map as a top-level prospect.
A 6'4", 215 pound right hander, Stinnett has a solidly built frame and a well-repeated delivery. He shows excellent feel for pitching, sequencing his three-pitch fastball/slider/changeup mix with aplomb. Stinnett takes a pretty stride towards home plate before driving with his back leg before releasing the ball from a low-ish 3/4 arm slot. His arm action puts a little bit of stress on his elbow as it comes through bent and a bit whip-like. Overall, from a mechanics standpoint, Stinnett grades out positively, and his durability and command should be above-average traits.
On top of his stats, size and mechanics, Stinnett's stuff shows well in addition. His fastball has solid velocity at 92-94, and it has impressive arm side run that helps it to play up. He's willing to challenge hitters of either handedness with it on the inside half, and works it around the zone well. Stinnett also uses a nice slider liberally. The pitch has a classic down-and-out break against right handers, and it bites late. The pitch is above-average, and can definitely help him get outs at the major league level. He shows the ability to throw it for strikes or use it as a chase pitch. Stinnett also throws a changeup with nice fade, which serves a solid third offering. He doesn't need to use it much in college, but it shows well and could become a bigger part of his attack as he moves to pro ball.
Stinnett is older than most prospects and his stuff isn't electric, but he has all the markers of a capable starting pitcher who could serve as a great signability pick in the supplemental or second round for a team who goes overslot with one of their selections
Stinnett's combination of command and solid stuff make him a good bet to be a #4 starter with the upside of a #3.
Projected Draft Round
Stinnett will get consideration as early as the supplemental round for his signability and talent, and it would be surprising to see him fall out of the second.
Will He Sign?