Stop gnashing your teeth and pulling your hair, Astros fans. This is not Jeff Lunhow's fault, nor is it Bo Porter's fault. This is not Chris Carter's fault. Stop getting angry and defensive when people don't share your righteous anger and your desire to overhaul the roster. Stop calling your friends apologists when they use the word "regression" and when they say that the Astros current hitting slump is not the end of the world.
Because it's not the end of the world.
Thus far, the Astros are hitting a woeful .192/.265/.338, for a 70 wRC+. Briefly, wRC+ is a measure of offensive production that is based on the run expectancy of player-caused events. Here's a matrix that is the foundation for the math. wRC+ is a good way to look at offensive production in a nutshell because it accounts for everything, not just hits and strikeouts. It ignores variance due to defense. A 100 wRC+ is an average offense. Lower is worse, higher is better.
The Astros' current 70 wRC+ is BAD. Horrible. Awful. But it won't stay that way. Regression.
Join me in the wayback machine, and let's go back to May 2005. The Astros eventually will wind up in their first World Series in franchise history, but they didn't know that, and neither did the fans. That May, the Astros had an awful offense. As awful as it is now, in fact -- as a team, the 2005 Astros had a 70 wRC+ that month. Here are some tidbits from May 2005:
- The Astros' team slash line was .230/.290/.365. That's so bad that it doesn't matter that it was marginally better than the 2014 Astros' April.
- Morgan Ensberg and Craig Biggio were the only Astros' hitters who didn't suck. Without those guys, the 2005 Astros hit .212/.264/.304...worse than the 2014 Astros.
- Lance Berkman hit .234/.337/.325, for a 75 wRC+
- Willy Taveras hit .238/.273/.295 for a 49 wRC+
- Adam Everett hit .213/.242/.415 for a 65 wRC+
- Mike Lamb hit .185/.216/.326 for a 35 wRC+
- Jason Lane hit .118/.189/.176 for a NEGATIVE FIVE wRC+ (Oh my goodness)
- Jose Vizcaino hit .216/.273/.314 for a 53 wRC+
- Raul Chavez hit .135/.158/.162 for a NEGATIVE TWENTY THREE wRC+
- Jeff Bagwell hit .167/.333/.167 for a 31 wRC+