Wednesday night, Baseball America closed down Prospect Season by releasing its Top 100 list. In conjunction with that, they released this article looking back at the Top 100 prospect lists from 1990 on to see how many players made the major leagues.
It's a pretty impressive list and it should make you feel very good about the Astros placing six on the 2014 list. Why?
Well, from 2006-2010 (the last year when the lists could be considered "complete") BA averaged 93 major leaguers out of their Top 100. Prospects have a high bust rate, but this suggests if BA tabs someone on this list, there is a very high probability they will at least make the majors. It doesn't predict they will be a star, but it does show there's a good chance they'll contribute to the big league team, which is more than you can say for most minor leaguers.
That being said, here are the Astros on the 2014 list with their rankings in parentheses.
Carlos Correa (7)
George Springer (18)
Mark Appel (39)
Mike Foltynewicz (59)
Lance McCullers, Jr. (77)
Jon Singleton (82)
Here are some more notes on the list:
- It is very nice to see Carlos Correa so high. He's got a very bright future ahead of him. The Astros do too.
- Also nice to see more Springer love. It's amazing how many prospect publications are understanding his strikeouts won't be a killer. Yes, it'll limit his ultimate upside, but I'm more and more sold on him being Mike Cameron 2.0. Did you know Mike Cameron was worth more WAR than Ken Griffey, Jr. the year before they were traded for each other? Mike Cameron is historically underrated now because of those low batting averages. Heck of a player.
- This also continues a disturbing trend of prospectors being down on Appel. He's ranked significantly behind both Kris Bryant and Jonathan Gray. Cue up the outrage from Subber10 and kyuss91 about pegging Appel as a No. 3 starter.
- BA seems to like LMJ quite a bit, as they've now ranked him in the Top 100 for two seasons. He also gives Houston three pitchers in the top 100 and three hitters. That's nice balance moving forward.
- A precipitous drop for Singleton here, but it's not unexpected. It's reactionary, yes, but not unexpected. When Singleton comes up and shows his potential, this won't matter as much. Until it does, it's confirmation for those who question his commitment level. Hey, at least he's finally in Astros camp.
- Anyone else shocked that Jio Mier wasn't on the list?
- I kid. I kid.
- Really, though, surprise omissions for me were: DDJ (not really, though he should be here), Rio Ruiz (great second half, young and already on their radar. Usually catnip), Vincent Velasquez (he may have had the best season among Astros starters last year) and Michael Feliz (tons of scouting buzz around him).
What did you think? Fair list? Agree with the rankings?