FanPost

Plumbing the Depths of MLB Free Agent Relief Pitching in Search of Potential 2015 Astros

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

In this exercise I will explore the depths of MLB free agent relief pitchers in an attempt to identify a subset of them who conceivably could sign with Houston under the right terms and make the 2015 Opening Day roster. I will rely on my pitching statistical evaluation system to pinpoint each pitcher's relative strengths/weaknesses over the last two seasons of MLB competition and use that information as an additional tool in assessing the relative fit of the pitcher to the club's perceived performance preferences. Details of the evaluation system are explained in this recent 2014-Astros-themed FanPost.

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Damage Assessment: Current State of the Bullpen

This first table shows how the members of the 2014 bullpen and recent waiver claim Will Harris performed relative to league relief peers in 2014 and 2013, with the ratings indicating what percentage of league relievers they stood to beat on the corresponding stat in that season (or starters, in the cases of Deduno and Williams). Players on the 40-man roster are in bold; free agents are italicized.

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By reliever standards Qualls has been extremely consistent over the past two campaigns, with his lone change being a relative reversal of his Control and Batted Ball Ratings; the lowish Strikeout Rating is what distinguishes him from a more prototypical big league closer. Fields made large strides forward in second big league season (especially vs LHB) and seems on the cusp of emerging as a viable MLB closer option. It would be tempting to move the lefty Sipp as a "trade-high" candidate given his pre-2014 numbers, though that would represent a gamble in that fellow incumbent southpaws Downs and Chapman have yet to prove themselves fit for full-season big league duty. Harris' near-league-average overall performances of the past two seasons are both surprising and something that the Astros' front office would more than welcome from an offseason waiver claim given the prevalence of red versus green numbers in the 2014 columns. Foltynewicz and Buchanan could just as soon start in AAA as relieve in MLB; Buchanan might find himself battling August waiver claim Deduno for an MLB longman role in spring training.

Qualls, Fields, and Sipp stand to be locks for a big league bullpen seat after a healthy spring; that amounts to one righthanded control-plus-weak-contact specialist and 2 short relievers of either dexterity who sport the classic strikeouts-plus-loud-contact "challenge the hitters upstairs" late relief profile. Harris, with but one option year remaining, seems a decent bet to stick as a "Joe Average" sort of reliever who could be a bit above-average on non-batted balls and bit more below-average on batted balls. Assuming a 12-man pitching staff to begin April leaves 3 openings to be filled between the incumbent 40-man roster players (Deduno and Downs being out of options), non-40-man organizational pitchers, and any free agent, trade, rule 5 draft, or waiver acquisitions. So let us set 3 as the maximum number of free agent relievers that could be signed, with 2 a more likely number.

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Repair Options: Free Agent Market

I have limited the table below to free agents who faced 100 MLB batters in each of the past 2 seasons. Other free agent relief options who failed to meet that requirement would include lefties Sean Burnett, Tom Gorzellany, and Joe Beimel and righties Mike Adams, Kyuji Fujikawa, J.J. Putz, 2014 Astro Matt Albers, Heath Bell, Juan Carlos Oviedo, Sergio Santos, Jason Motte, the already-inked Luke Hochevar, (technically a) 2014 Astro Jesse Crain and Andrew Bailey. Adding any of those sorts outside of a deeply discounted Albers would be surprising in so much as the level of certainty in these players' ability to contribute at the MLB level for the bulk of 2015 is low and there is very little room at AAA to accommodate their rehabilitation into big leaguers given the current surplus of prospects in the organization.

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I'll make some cuts now. The top two lefties in Miller and Duke are already off the board, as are Frasor, Johnson, and Belisle. Lefties Cotts, Thatcher, or Outman would likely only be brought in if they were deemed to be a clear upgrade over Darin Downs, who would be the odd man out in such a scenario. Older pitchers with declining performance ratings would not stand to be a priority, so that would rule out Grilli, Wright, and Hawkins. Longmen such as Stauffer, Villanueva, McGowan, and Manship don't seem to sport the performance profiles that the current regime favors. A few other cuts trims the list down further to 13 candidates.

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The 13 Best Bets for 2015

David Robertson is clearly a strikeout artist and would stand to be one of the safest bets for success on the market given the relative agreement between his 2014 and 2013 numbers and the absence of a red flag in the batted ball columns (along with Andrew Miller). Neshek is a side-arming control plus pop-up artist, and with pop-ups being equivalent to the K from a run expectancy standpoint it is comparable to his having a higher strikeout rate and more run-of-the-mill popup rate; the very high prevalence of OFFB and pull-third OFFB make him an awkward fit for MinuteMaid Park given the very reachable corner OF fences, and to roll the dice with him would all but require some gamble that his K rate will look more like the good 2014 mark than the poor 2013 season one. Recent occasional closers Romo, Rodriguez, and Soriano also have red flags in the Pull-Third OFFB column, so they too would have to fare very well in the Control and Strikeout columns to offset that particular vulnerability that gets amplified in Houston.

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Plus-control guys Janssen and Romo are similar in that each throws a sub-90mph fastball and thus leans heavily on other offerings; Janssen sports a cleaner batted ball profile thanks to his cutter and should sign for considerably less years and annual dollars than Romo in coming off a down K year. Gregerson has been reasonably consistent over the two-year interval, though his across-the-board absence of either a plus or minus performance skill leaves him now profiling better as short middle reliever or set-up man than as a closer. Veras graded out much better in his Astros sample of work than he did in his injury-plagued start with the Cubs in posting a 58% Overall Rating (20% Control, 73% Strikeout, 45% Batted Ball) over 139 batters faced following his re-acquisition. Though Veras throws a sinker he has actually ridden the infield pop-up to his half-plus Batted Ball Rating over the 2-year sample; the one mark beyond control against re-inking Veras is that his OFFB are pulled more often than normal. Badenhop, Belisario, former Astro Lindstrom, and Chamberlain all have shown the ability to induce groundballs and avoid both the OFFB and the Pull-Third OFFB and that would stand to put the quartet squarely on the radar of the front office. Badenhop stands out from the rest in that he has also essentially rated plus at control over the past 2 campaigns. Belisario bears similarities to Deduno and could be seen as redundant from that perspective. Lindstrom struggled upon his return from mid-season ankle surgery and that may not be a risk that the club would want to assume after being bitten by the bullpen injury bug in 2014. Chamberlain has youth on his side and rated here as a big-league-average performer in 2014, and could be appealing in those respects. Burton fits the "Joe Average" profile with nary a red or green value but would not seem to be an upgrade over Will Harris in that sort of role.

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Poll

I have provided a few options below in terms of free agent bullpen signings. I have taken the liberty to strike Neshek as an option given that he's coming off a career year and sports the untoward OFFB spray bias. I'll grudgingly allow Romo in, though keep in mind that he'll be expensive relative to the others not named Robertson. I will allow you to sign just one other reliever if you choose to ink Robertson (assume 4 years, $40 million) or Romo (assume 3 years, $24 million) and a total of 3 signings otherwise. A slash between two choices means you can have your pick of the 2 options but not both. UPDATE: In light of David Robertson signing with the White Sox, I have removed the original "Robertson + Gregerson/Veras/Janssen" option which had garnered 6 of the first 9 votes and the "Robertson + Badenhop/Chamberlain" option which had failed to tally a vote. In the event that you voted previously for the retracted choice and are thus unable to vote again in the poll, feel free to state your revised choice as a comment below.