FanPost

Paring the Roster of MLB Free Agent Starting Pitchers In Search of Potential 2015 Astros

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

In this exercise I will mine the comprehensive list of MLB free agent starting pitchers in an attempt to identify a subset of pitchers who conceivably could sign with Houston under the right terms and make the 2015 Opening Day roster. I will rely on my pitching statistical evaluation system to gauge what each of them has been relatively good or bad at in terms of performance over the last two seasons of MLB competition and use that information as an additional tool in assessing the relative fit of the pitcher to the club's perceived performance preferences. Details of the evaluation system are explained in this recent 2014-Astros-themed FanPost.

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A Comprehensive List of Free Agent Signee Candidates

Here is the full list, with the percentages indicating what percentage of league starters they stood to beat on the corresponding stat in that season. The leftmost of the two wider columns includes only 2014 data whereas the rightmost one includes both 2014 and 2013 data. The list has been sorted from best to worst based on 2014 overall performance.

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Let's begin by cutting 3 former Astros (Randy Wolf, Wandy Rodriguez, Felipe Paulino) and Chad Billinsgley, for lack of recent analyzable data or a plausible chance of their cracking any opening day starting rotation. Daisuke Matsuzaka gets the thumb as he seems on the verge of returning home on a multi-year deal. The red batted ball guys tend to be loud flyballers and you just can't situate those sorts in a venue like MinuteMaid Park given the close proximity of the LF and RF walls- out go Chris Capuano, Scott Baker, Aaron Harang, Chris Young, and Franklin Morales. Ryan Vogelsong, Colby Lewis, Bruce Chen, Kyle Kendrick, and Kevin Slowey just do not strike out enough batters these days to offset their loudish batted ball profiles so they're gone, too.

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A More Realistic Set of Free Agent Signee Candidates

The prior series of cuts narrows the list to 19 candidates. Now I'll place the 2013 MLB numbers to the right of the 2014 numbers.

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As much as fans would enjoy seeing a Jon Lester or Max Scherzer in a 2015 Astros uni, it just doesn't seems reasonable that either would choose to sign with Houston this offseason so that's curtains for them. Say sayonara to Hiroki Kuroda who just isn't coming to Houston at age 40 (remarkably similar 2013 and 2014 data per the table). The batted ball profiles of Jason Hammel, James Shields, and Ervin Santana have been on the loud side each of the past two seasons, and without correspondingly high control/strikeout numbers to offset that flaw they each stand to fall far enough down the Astros' wish list such that they'll end up signing elsewhere. Those three just aren't the sorts of pitchers who this front office would seem willing to overpay, so they get the axe. Edinson Volquez has been well below average at control in 2013 and 2014, a bit under average at the strikeout over that span, and his batted ball rating has fluctuated from poor in 2013 to good in 2014. There is bound to be a club who will extend Volquez a 2- to 3-year deal commensurate with his 2014 3.04 ERA and it doesn't figure to be the Astros. Serious discussions between Jake Peavy and the Astros don't seem to be in the cards- the negative movement in his control and a strikeout performance at a relatively advanced age would stand to scare off the Astros while the club's 2015 projected win total would stand to scare him off. I've seen Roberto Hernandez and Joe Saunders semi-lauded as groundballers in the past but in truth their overall batted ball performance hasn't been that pretty the last 2 campaigns and especially given how poor their non-batted ball outcomes have been over that interval. Cutting Volquez, Peavy, Hernandez, and Saunders pares the list down to nine.

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A Still More Realistic Set of Free Agent Signee Candidates

The above yields 9 arms who stand some chance of sharing a mutual interest in being a 2015 Astro.

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Legitimately Good MLB Rotation Pieces

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Brandon McCarthy is an elite control artist; that the 2014 Strikeout Rating was above-average stands to make the low 2013 Strikeout Rating more palatable. Given the absence of a glaring statistical blemish and his purported analytical biases, McCarthy may be the number one target on the club's offseason free agent starting pitching search list. The next duo of Francisco Liriano and Justin Masterson are similar in that they have each shown the capacity to be good to elite at generating strikeouts and inducing weak contact, and the pair of pluses sum up to offset their shared minus of control. The one of the two that the Astros would prefer would be difficult to ascertain, and may come down to internal philosophical biases related to injury risk and the extent of external interest in each of the players. Liriano's strikeout performance seems a safer bet than Masterson's while Masterson's batted ball performance would be a safer bet that Liriano's.

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Stopgap Sorts

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Kevin Correia and the knee-surgery-rehabbing Paul Maholm would stand to be most likely choices for a short-term, unsexy, veteran stopgap rotation filler-outer role (a la the Jerome Williams signing of the 2013-2014 offseason). Correia is a not quite plus control artist who tends to induce his fair share of weak contact, while not missing many bats at all. Maholm is a lefthanded version of that sort with poorer control offset by still weaker contact. The front office would stand to keep an eye on their whereabouts as the offseason played out, and then possibly go after an available one of them if they foresaw or incurred a need to slot such a pitcher in the rotation at the start of the campaign.

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Injury Bounceback Candidates

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This last quartet features injury flyer candidates. Brett Anderson sports the elite grounder-and-quiet-aerial-event-biased batted ball profile that the organization covets; he missed the first 3 months of 2014 with a broken finger only to have a herniated disc that required surgery end what was left of his year in August. Gavin Floyd sustained a throwing elbow fracture during the 2014 season and it is unclear what his status will be for 2015; his small combined sample of 2014 and 2013 work does grade out favorably per the table numbers. I seem to recall the Astros having interest in Josh Johnson last offseason, and if that was the case then they figure to retain some mild interest despite his failing to log a 2014 inning and requiring a second Tommy John surgery after signing with the Padres. Brandon Morrow rounds out the list of bounceback candidates; his 2014 campaign was derailed by a torn finger tendon sheath.

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Exit Poll

For the sake of the ensuing poll, let's assume that the following is what it would take for the Astros to sign each of these four free agents (and that the Astros do not land Kenta Maeda or any other starting pitcher import).

  • Brandon McCarthy: 3 guaranteed years, $43 million total
  • Francisco Liriano: 3 guaranteed years, $46 million total
  • Justin Masterson: 2 guaranteed years, $24 million total
  • Brett Anderson: 1 guaranteed year, $9 million total