There has been a large amount of debate about who the Astros should/will take with the 1.1 pick of the upcoming draft. I decided to take a minute and voice my opinion on this topic for the dozen or so of you that will read this. My approach is going to be simplistic, unoriginal, and probably said better by many other people, but I'll say it nonetheless.
TAKE THE BEST PLAYER IN THE DRAFT
The end. That's the end of the strategy. I know many Astros fans (myself included) loved the way the Astros handled last year's draft class and manipulated the rules to sign a couple of players later in the draft that slipped due to signability reasons. But to believe that that specific strategy will work year in and year out is ignorant to the fact that never again will that exact scenario be replicated in the draft. We, as human beings (Luhnow probably included--not sure if wizards count as humans), have no ability of predicting the future. Do you know why the Astros drafted Lance McCullers where they did? Because he was still available. I can almost guarantee the draft team didn't sit in that room, discuss the 1.1 pick, and come up with "Say, let's take Correa because McCullers will get passed up by everyone else until we get to pick again." There's just absolutely no way to predict that with any certainty. What if McCullers gets picked right before the Astros picked? Then what? Are we still talking about how the Astros "played" the draft? I'm not so sure.
The Astros, at least I really hope so, took Carlos Correa because they believed he was the best player available in the draft. While that's subject to many people's opinions, it's certainly arguable. They were able to draft McCullers and Ruiz strictly because they thought the best player available was also going to be a cheap sign.
PLEASE DON'T EXPECT THE SAME RESULT FROM THE ASTROS THIS DRAFT
To expect the Astros to draft someone 1.1 strictly so you can save money for other picks later down the road (that MAY NOT BE THERE) would be a waste of an opportunity to add an impact player to your organization. So if the Astros pick Moran, Frazier, or anyone else at 1.1--it will be because the Astros think he's the best choice for making the Astros better, not because "he'll be cheaper so we can sign a player that we don't know for sure will be there!"
DROP THE EXPECTATIONS-BE HAPPY WITH THE BEST PLAYER OUT THERE