Crawfish Boxes 2013 MLB Mock Draft (Take 1)

Bob Levey

The entire first draft, including supplemental and competitive balance picks.

Welcome to our first shot at predicting the 2013 MLB Rule 4 Draft... or at least the first round. Our minor league staff - subber10, jsams, kyuss94, and I - teamed up with some of the rest of the team - namely leistomania409, native_astro, and CRPerry13 - to serve as the "scouting directors" for MLB teams. We broke the teams up, roughly by division, and assigned one draft team member and one non-draft team member to each. We figured focusing on individual teams' draft strategies, history, and organizational prospects might lead us to a better understanding of how the draft will unfold than, say, drawing names out of a hat.

There's at least a 50/50 chance that we were wrong about that.

At any rate, the team assignments were as follows:

CRPerry13 & Subber10: Diamondbacks, White Sox, Indians, Rockies, Tigers, Royals, Dodgers, Twins, Padres, Giants

JSams & native_astro: Orioles, Astros, Yankees, Athletics, Mariners, Rays, Rangers, Blue Jays

Kyuss94 & leistomania409: Braves, Red Sox, Cubs, Reds, Marlins, Mets, Phillies, Pirates, Cardinals

Round 1

1. Houston Astros: Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford University

This isn't the time to get cute. Mark Appel is the best player available, and it's not close. Of course, no prospect is perfect. I'm a little concerned about his college workload and the fact that it took until his senior year for the results to match the stuff. I'm also concerned with potential signability issuesEven so, he's the safest and most complete prospect. -jsams

2. Chicago Cubs: Jonathan Gray, RHP, Oklahoma University

The way we saw it, there were three candidates for this pick- Kris Bryant, Jonathan Gray, and Clint Frazier. We saw these prospects as equal talents, but the Cubs' improving system is very position-player heavy. Gray reminds me a lot of current Cubs pitcher Jeff Samardzija, and has frontline starter potential with his elite fastball. He is very much deserving of a top 2 selection. -kyuss94

3. Colorado Rockies: Sean Manaea, LHP, Indiana State University

The Rockies have leaned towards college picks over the last several years with exception to David Dahl last year when there were only HS guys worthy of that slot last season. So, with Manaea, Frazier, and Meadows being the top prospects on the board, Manaea fits the Rockes profile the best and still fits BPA. -Subber10

4. Minnesota Twins: Kris Bryant, 3B/1B, University of San Diego

The Twins have recently been selecting high schoolers with their first pick and will see many of their top prospects reach the majors in the next few years. They have several good outfielders in their top 10 and that includes last years number two pick, Byron Buxton. This year, we think the Twins will seek out a college player with a big bat and play the infield. Bryant fits that profile and could be ready fairly quickly to go along with their top talent. -Subber10

5. Cleveland Indians: Clint Frazier, OF, Logansville HS (Ga.)

The Indians are pretty sabr friendly and Frazier seems to have better skills compared to Meadows who has more projection. Those two are easily the two best available players, so Frazier gets his name called. -Subber10

6. Miami Marlins: Austin Meadows, OF, Grayson HS (Ga.)

The Marlins go BPA at #6 and take Meadows, who gives their system a major boost of upside. There aren't any pitchers to consider here other than Kohl Stewart, and the possibility of a future outfield consisting of Meadows and Christian Yelich is too good to pass up and makes the most sense. -leistomania409

7. Boston Red Sox: Jonathan Denney, C, Yukon HS (Okla.)

We also considered Kohl Stewart, but given the way Boston's front office chased signability with their early picks last year (Brian Johnson, Austin Maddox, et al), Kohl wouldn't have really fit their MO. Denney would add some great talent at the C position in the Boston farm, which is important as Blake Swihart is no sure thing and may not be a long term catcher. -kyuss94

8. Kansas City Royals: J.P. Crawford, SS, Lakewood HS (Calif.)

Royals love athletes and they love tools. The two best players that fit that profile are Kohl Stewart and Crawford. Considering the injury and signability questions with Stewart, we will go with the toolsy Crawford. -Subber10

9. Pittsburgh Pirates: Chris Anderson, RHP, Jacksonville University

The Pirates... filled out their 2012 draft/international class with primarily offensive talent like Barrett Barnes, Wyatt Mathisen and Jin-de Jhang. Though pitching is the strength of their system at the top, their depth is much more significant on the other side of the ball and this is the pick they used to draft Mark Appel, after all. Anderson is a beast on the mound, he has clean, loose arm action and devastating secondary stuff and a knack for changing speeds effectively. His strength of schedule at JU obviously isn't great, but he's done his part and dominated all comers. -kyuss94

10. Toronto Blue Jays: Ryne Stanek, RHP, University of Arkansas

If you're the Blue Jays, you have to be drooling at this point that Ryne Stanek is still on the board. He's had a down junior year, but there's just too much upside to pass up. He could be the Mark Appel of the 2013 draft and simply could choose to go back into the 2014 draft hoping for a better year. Stanek has plus stuff and isn't afraid to go after hitters. I think this is a no brainer for the Blue Jays. -native_astro

11. New York Mets: Dominic Smith, 1B, Serra HS (Calif.)

A lot of fringe top ten guys remained on the board for the Mets at 11th overall. With Matt Harvey establishing himself as an ace and David Wright locked up, do they see now as the time to compete, and go after someone who should be able to compete very soon, or do they stretch their timeframe? I think they go after college bats later in the draft, but they can't pass up the opportunity to grab Domonic Smith, whose bat could be very special. New York may try him in the outfielder, but his bat certainly plays at first base. -Anthony Boyer

12. Seattle Mariners: Colin Moran, 3B, North Carolina

Colin Moran has the best present hit tool in the entire draft, and looks like he's going to remain at third. Whether or not he develops more power is questionable, but there's no question that he's going to hit, wherever he goes. His floor is pretty high. -jsams

13. San Diego Padres: Trey Ball, LHP/OF, New Castle HS (Ind.)

We plan to start Ball in the very low minors as a starting pitcher AND DH and monitor him for a couple seasons. If his stuff improves (and it's already good) we'll commit to him on the mound. But if he shows good feel with the bat and his stuff doesn't play at the professional level, he'll be a CF. Since PETCO plays well for both pitchers and center fielders (and just about nothing else), and since (In Brooks' words) the Padres already have a strong system, they can afford to gamble on his upside at either position. -CRPerry13

14. Pittsburgh Pirates: Reese McGuire, C, Kentwood HS (Wash.)

Here, Spencer and I take a little risk and give Pittsburgh one of the boom or bust prep catchers. With a plethora of pitching depth in the minors, including Gerrit Cole, James Taillon and Anderson who we drafted for them, it's time for the Pirates to continue stocking up on premium position players. McGuire will take a lot of time to develop, which may not be ideal for the Pirates who are looking for a winning season ASAP, but with a safe pick earlier, we think they'll turn a 180 and go with a high upside guy with their second pick.-leistomania409

15. Arizona Diamondbacks: Austin Wilson, OF, Stanford University

He has really nice upside and a floor thats better than the HS options available. The D-backs are difficult to pick for, but in the end, [Kevin Towers isn't] afraid of risk with picks like Trevor Bauer and Donovan Tate. -Subber10

16. Philadelphia Phillies: Kohl Stewart, RHP, St. Pius X HS (Tex.)

Stewart represents the best and riskiest player available. The Phillies will have to shell out a hefty bonus here to sign Stewart, but he's fallen far enough and would be a huge get if he signs. Stewart is the top HS pitcher in the draft and would be a good way to start some younger talent into the Phillies' system. -leistomania409

17. Chicago White Sox: Kevin Ziomek, LHP, Vanderbilt University

Ready for pick of the draft? The White Sox go by their gut according to Chris. So, what fits their gut? Kevin Ziomek and his mechanics that are very similar to Chris Sale, and that worked out for them. Plus, the old age scouts love Vandy products. -Subber10

18. Los Angeles Dodgers: Ian Clarkin, LHP, James Madison HS (Calif.)

The Dodgers have good luck with prep pitchers and Clarkin may be one of the best. They may need power in the system, but I don't think many fit the profile. -Subber10

This pick has the added advantage of plucking a player right out of the rival Padres' backyard. James Madison is only a few hours from Dodger Stadium, and the Dodgers have been scouting Clarkin since his freshman year. This is an excellent chance for them to grab another prep lefty to put alongside Clayton Kershaw. -Anthony Boyer

19. St. Louis Cardinals: Braden Shipley, RHP, University of Nevada

He's burst onto the scene with mid-nineties heat and a plus changeup, and the Cardinals took a ton of college players early last year so we'll mock them another. Plus, he very well may be the BPA by our estimation. -kyuss94

20. Detroit Tigers: Hunter Renfroe, C/OF, Mississippi State University

They tend to lean college and with the their lack of first round picks they need to make sure to get first round talent in their system. They have a lot of OF and pitching prospects but lack catching depth. Perhaps they put Renfroe at catcher despite playing primarily RF this season. -Subber10

21. Tampa Bay Rays: Phillip Ervin, OF, Samford University

It baffles me how underrated Ervin seems to be. I know he plays against relatively weak competition, and doesn't stand a desirable stature, but dude can play. He finally got some pub. after destroying the Cape Cod League, and he's continued to mash into the 2013 season. He may not be a true "five-tool player", but he is at least average in all five tools, and I think he sticks in center. A stretch of .280, 20 homer, 20 steal seasons, along with good defense in center is totally reasonable, and his floor is pretty high. Sign me up. -jsams

22. Baltimore Orioles: Marco Gonzales, LHP, Gonzaga University

Gonzales is one of those guys who seems like a lock to outperform his draft-spot. He'll fall because of his diminutive frame and high 80s/low 90s fastball, but he may have the best change in the class and he knows how to pitch. He does just about everything well -- field, hold runners, throw strikes -- and has great mechanics/delivery. I'm betting on him being a successful major leaguer someday. -jsams

23. Texas Rangers: Jonathon Crawford, RHP, University of Florida

Since 2010, the Rangers have had nine first- or supplemental-round picks, and all but two of them have been high school players. This suggests that they'd go in the same direction in 2013, but with Crawford available, Jon Daniels breaks tradition. A fastball that touches 97 and has late sink, above average slider with plus potential, and a curve and change that both show at least average potential, he's a tough one to pass up here. -Anthony Boyer

24. Oakland Athletics: D.J. Peterson, 3B/1B, University of New Mexico

DJ Peterson is way too good to pass up, at this point. Seems like a Billy Beane-type guy too. Peterson has mammoth power. I think he winds up at first, but his bat projects well enough for him to succeed there. His numbers are somewhat skewed, because he plays in a hitter's park, but he also faces fairly tough competition -jsams

25. San Francisco Giants: Ryan Eades, RHP, Louisiana State University

He's the best player on my draft board right now due to a good season this year. -Subber10

26. New York Yankees: Billy McKinney, OF, Plano West HS (Tex.)

I think this is a great spot for Billy McKinney, who has been linked to the Yanks. McKinney might have the best present hit tool in high school, and presents a higher floor than most high schoolers. -jsams

27. Cincinnati Reds: Oscar Mercado, SS, Gaither HS (Fla.)

Is it too soon to say that this is my favorite pick of the draft so far? I think Mercado could be the best shortstop in the entire draft, and the Reds snagged him at 27th overall. Look at the return they got on Didi Gregorius -- and then the return the Indians got for Gregorius. Defensively-sound shortstops are always at a premium, and though we can look ahead to the 2015 draft and all its up-the-middle talent all we like, my opinion is that Mercado is probably the best shortstop we're going to see for at least a couple of years. -Anthony Boyer

Supplemental First Round

28. St. Louis Cardinals: Nick Ciuffo, C, Lexington HS (So. Car.)

I love Ciuffo's lefty swing and catcher's body, and he's really improved in the last year. -kyuss94

29. Tampa Bay Rays: Aaron Judge, OF, Fresno State University

Tampa does a really good job at finding pitching in the later rounds, but it's been awhile since they've developed their own power bat. Judge is big and has big time power potential. There is a little swing and miss to his game, but the power is legitimate and should profile well for a corner OF spot. -native_astro

30. Texas Rangers: Ryan Boldt, OF, Red Wing HS (Minn.)

Good hitter, centerfielder and runner. He has a weak arm, and I'm not sure how much power he'll hit for, but he's a nice pick this late in the first. -jsams

31. Atlanta Braves: Rob Kaminsky, LHP, St. Joseph Regional HS (N.J.)

Surprisingly major league-ready for a high school guy, he comes with a mid-90s fastball and a curve that Jerry Ford says is "as good as most any at the big league level." That's high praise, and exceptionally hard to ignore. This could end up being a real steal at 31st overall. -Anthony Boyer

32. New York Yankees: Hunter Harvey, RHP, Bandys HS (No. Car.)

Projectable, safe-ish, easy sign. -jsams

33. New York Yankees: Andrew Thurman, RHP, UC Irvine

Andrew Thurman's a pretty safe college pitcher - doesn't have electric stuff, but solid throughout. -jsams

Competitive Balance Lottery Round A

34. Kansas City Royals: Matthew Krook, LHP, St. Ignatius Prep HS (Calif.)

Krook is climbing draft boards and is huge surprise that he hasn't been selected yet. A LHP with decent size, low 90's FB and a great curve....Royals will love it. -Subber10

35. Miami Marlins: Carlos Salazar, RHP, Kerman HS (Calif.)

A foot injury kept Salazar out of the national spotlight for a long time, and so a lot of scouts had no idea who he was when he began touching 98mph for the Marlins scout team. The mark against him is his breaking pitch - it flashes potential, but he's shown no trust in it. Its development will be the likeliest factor in whether he ends up in the bullpen or the rotation. -Anthony Boyer

36. Arizona Diamondbacks: Trevor Williams, RHP, Arizona State University

Williams has shown a maddening lack of interest in missing bats, so it will be interesting to see what happens to him as a professional, but there's a very good chance that he'll be in the big leagues within a season or two. -Anthony Boyer

37. Baltimore Orioles: Dustin Peterson, SS, Gilbert HS (Ariz.)

Really like Dustin Peterson, who has flown up boards lately. Brother of DJ can really, really hit, has a strong arm and plays good D. Probably won't stick at short, but too good of a hitter with projectable power to pass up. -jsams

38. Cincinnati Reds: Jonah Wesely, LHP, Tracy HS (Calif.)

This is the Orioles' second pick of the first round; earlier, they grabbed Gonzaga lefty Marco Gonzales. I expected the pitching trend to continue with them, as that is still the glaring weakness in their system, and sure enough they grabbed the talented high school lefty from Tracy, California. Wesely is a personal favorite of mine. Big, durable lefty with a low-90s fastball and a nice curve. -Anthony Boyer

39. Detroit Tigers: Stephen Gonsalves, LHP, Cathedral Catholic HS (Calif.)

6'5" with a very projectable body, he can hit 94 now, and looks like a candidate to add velocity. Good command of the fastball, too. While his secondaries aren't quite up to the level of his plus-potential fastball, he has a curve and a change that could end up matching it, in time. Low floor for Gonsalves, but a really nice ceiling. -Anthony Boyer

Round 2

40. Houston Astros: Jake Brentz, LHP, Parkway South HS (Mo.)

He has a nice frame with a nice repeatable delivery. He'll need to work on command, but there's just too much upside in that arm. -native_astro

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