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Strategy Behind Baseball Decisions - Astros Example

Hey y'all, this is an interesting video that shows the strategy behind many baseball decisions that we take for granted. It's also a nice throwback to the Killer B era. Professor Bickel teaches my Statistics class, and has several other interesting articles about decision making in baseball.

Food for thought:

The Astros ultimate goal is to win as many World Series as possible. We learn from the video that the quality of a decision should be judged independently of the outcome. Therefore, we can ask the question - was the recent Dexter Fowler trade a good decision by Jeff Luhnow? If the probability of us winning one (or more) World Series has increased because of it, then the answer is yes. What do y'all think?

What variables played a role in the decision process?

What would be a good outcome?

By what percentage has the trade increased or decreased our probability of winning a World Series in the next 5 years?

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