FanPost

Odds on Astros getting traded

What do you guys think the odds are of each player on the 40 man getting traded, and what are they worth? My thoughts after the jump.




Group 1: "Can't. He's hurt."
Includes: Kyle Weiland, Sergio Escalona
Odds: I suppose these guys could be included in a deal as a PTBNL, but neither has much value right now and it's highly, highly unlikely either is traded.
Fair value: 1 org top 30 prospect

Group 2: "Why?"
Includes: Arcenio Leon, Jorge De Leon
Odds: Both guys are high velocity relievers who are middling in the minors. Hard to even imagine them as a throw-in on a bigger deal.
Fair value: 1 org top 30 prospect

Group 3: "I'd have to make you overpay, so it's probably not worth talking about."
Includes: Jordan Lyles, Jason Castro, Marwin Gonzalez, Fernando Martinez, Dallas Keuchel,Rhiner Cruz
Odds: This is a group of young players who have yet to determine their true value. Trading them now would likely be selling low, and I doubt Luhnow would pull that trigger.
Fair value: 1 org top 30 prospect

Group 4: "Only if he's a part of a bigger trade."
Includes: Jimmy Paredes, Brett Wallace, Jack Shuck, Paul Clemens, Aneury Rodriguez
Odds: 10%
This is a group of young players in AAA who may be blocked. They could be used to sweeten a deal to increase the prospect return.
Fair Value: 1 org Top 20 prospect (or an increased prospect return on a trade involving other players)
Hypothetical: Paredes and Wandy Rodriguez (along with $ to cover the remainder of his 2012 salary) to Detroit for Jacob Turner.

Group 5: "Sure, if you're looking for cheap middle relief help, let's talk."
Includes: Juan Abreu, Enerio Del Rosario, Xavier Cedeno, Fernando Abad, Wes Wright, David Carpenter, Fernando Rodriguez
Odds: 10%
Middle Relief depth appears to be an Astros' strength (although a few of these guys have struggled this season), so it's not unimaginable to see Luhnow flip one or more of these guys to a team that doesn't want to spend big to get bullpen help.
Fair Value: 1 org top 20 prospect
Hypothetical: Carpenter to Toronto for Matt Dean.

Group 6: "Sure, if you're looking for cheap starting pitching, let's talk."
Includes: JA Happ, Lucas Harrell
Odds: 10%
Most teams have players like Harrell and Happ in AAA, so it's doubtful that either gets moved. That said, there are things to like about both players, so there's small chance that a GM thinks he sees something special and makes a move. These players are likely much more valuable to Houston than another team.
Fair Value: 1 org top 20 prospect
Hypothetical: Happ to Minnesota for Matt Hauser

Group 7: "We're interested if you are."
Includes: Justin Maxwell, Chris Snyder, Travis Buck, Jordan Schafer, Brian Bixler, Matt Downs, Brian Bogusevic
Odds: 15%
A team looking for a bench player could talk to Luhnow about a player in this group. Guys like this are pretty readily available, so it's unlikely that any of these guys get traded, especially considering the rough years that Downs and Snyder are having.
Fair Value: 1 org top 20 prospect
Hypothetical: Downs to Philadelphia for Ethan Stewart

Group 8: "Not unless one of us is insane."
Includes: Jose Altuve
Odds: 20%
Altuve is probably the 1 player on the roster who most would automatically pencil in as a cornerstone of the next contending Astros' team. He's 22 years old and already 1 of the top 10 2B in the league. He'll be under team control through 2017. Of course that means that there will be other teams who covet him, but for a deal to make sense, it would have to be a blockbuster and a clear win for Houston.
Fair Value: 1 MLB Top 20 prospect, 2 MLB Top 100 prospects, and 1 Org Top 30 Prospect
Hypothetical: Altuve to Detroit for Jacob Turner, Nick Castellanos, and Andy Oliver.

Group 9: "We're more open to it than people think."
Includes: Bud Norris, Wilton Lopez, Jed Lowrie, Chris Johnson
Odds: 30%
This group is really interesting, so I'll talk about each player individually.
Norris- at this point, he'd be a 4th starter on a playoff team. His recent play/injury hasn't helped his value, but there's still room to dream that he'll be a #2 or a good #3. He's under team control through 2015. He may be worth more to Houston than the buyers. For it to be worthwhile, Houston would need to get back at least 1 very high ceiling pitcher along with at least 1 other good prospect. Say, Norris to Minnesota for Kyle Gibson, Travis Harrison, and Hudson Boyd?
Lopez- Lopez has solidified himself as a solid setup man. He's also under team control through 2015, so it's not unreasonable to think about him in that role on the next winning Astros' team. Because Houston has Myers and Lyon to shop, I think they probably hang on to Lopez for another year. As for a hypothetical, say Lopez to Baltimore for Jason Esposito and Parker Bridwell?
Lowrie- In the midst of a breakout season, Lowrie is on pace to be the best offensive shortstop in baseball. True story. The question is, will he be able to maintain that performance, and will other teams be willing to pay for that type of player? He's only under team control through 2014, so if he's going to be Houston's shortstop until Correa arrives, he'll likely need to be extended, and if they wait until this time next year, the price to buy out 2-3 of his free agent seasons could be very, very high. Currently, I think the best way forward is to sit tight, hope he stays healthy and performs, and re-assess the situation next season, when trading or extending him becomes a much less risky situation. I'm high on Lowrie, so I think fair value is 1 elite prospect and 2 other very good prospects. For an example, I'll throw out Lowrie to the Dodgers for 3 of their top 8 pitching prospects (Zach Lee, Chris Reed, and Garrett Gould?).
Johnson- He may not be in a 'breakout' year, but I think CJ has established himself as a big league 3rd baseman. He'll provide slightly below average defense and about 15 HRs. That has value, and I don't see a ton of 3B options becoming available this year. Also, trading CJ would open up 3B for Brett Wallace. The problem is that teams will be reluctant to offer a ton for him, so it may not be worthwhile. For a hypothetical, I'll go with CJ to the Pirates for either Jeff Locke or Justin Wilson.

Group 10: "How much do we have to pay you to take him?"
Includes: Brandon Lyon, Carlos Lee
Odds: 30%
I believe Houston's GM will be shopping both of these players, and finding a match for either will be impossible without eating most if not all of their remaining salary. Lee's situation is further complicated by his partial no-trade clause. Lyon will probably have some takers, since he is an established reliever who can definitely help a team down the stretch. Hypotheticals: Lee and the rest of this year's salary to Cleveland for Chun Chen, Lyon and the rest of his 2012 salary to the Mets for Jefry Marte.

Group 11: "We're definitely trading him, so make an offer."
Includes: Brett Myers, Wandy Rodriguez
Odds: 70%
I fully expect both of these players to be moved. I think Luhnow really wants to clear the payroll and give himself a completely clean slate to work with this coming offseason. Both Myers and Wandy are performing at a very high level and should have plenty of suitors. That said, until the market develops further, it's hard to guess exactly what each will bring back in return. Some think the new draft rules will make teams more reluctant to give up premium prospects. Either way, I think Houston should include as much $ as necessary to bring back the best possible return, preferably 'ace' caliber pitching prospects. I think a return similar to what was received for Roy Oswalt would be a fair value for Wandy, and for Myers, I think something between the Berkman and Bourn trades would be appropriate. Hypotheticals: Wandy and $5M to Toronto for Noah Synergaard, Daniel Norris, and Kellen Sweeney; Myers and $5M to Philadelphia for Phillippe Aumont and Darin Ruf.


I put the over/under on trades at 3. I think Myers and Wandy are almost certain to be moved, and I think Luhnow will make at least 1 more deal. The trading deadline is always a fun time for a rebuilding club, so I'll enjoy watching it unfold. Thoughts?
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