Obvious question, but wanted to gauge the opinion of TCB
by kyuss94 on Feb 7, 2012 10:20 AM CST
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As we all know, the Astros have the dubious honor of picking first in the MLB entry draft this June. There are a handful of realistic candidates that I can see, and I'm sure one will jump out this season and separate himself from the pack, and what I want to ask is- who do you want to be that guy? I'm sorry if this has been posted here recently, I haven't seen it.
Brief rundown of the 5 players I see as realistic possibilities for the first pick-
Mark Appel- Has been considered a front runner for a long time. Three potential plus pitches and a great frame, but inconsistent command has prevented him from college dominance so far.
Lucas Giolito- A 6'6" monster of a 17 year old, Giolito has a fastball that sits at 95 and touches 99 along with two plus breaking pitches and plus command. He is a potential true ace. Would be the first High School RHP to go at 1.1.
Mike Zunino- A great defensive backstop, Zunino has some holes in his swing but is a good power hitter with plenty of potential at the plate. The safest positional prospect in the draft.
Byron Buxton- An elite athlete who projects as a plus defensive center fielder, Buxton has special tools. He could be a 20/50 type player in the Carl Crawford mold if things break right. The ceiling here is immense.
Stryker Trahan- A dark horse candidate for 1.1, Stryker has one of the best names in draft history and is a very intriguing prospect. He is unique in the sense that he plays catcher but is considered a true five-tool talent. He has a swing that scouts love and runs better than most outfielders.
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It's just so difficult to say right now
I’m still crossing my fingers hoping one of the guys breaks that boundary and becomes the surefire best overall talent. Preferably by breaking into the plane of the the top talents from the last three drafts, although that looks unlikely right now.
I voted for Giolito because I think he is the most likely to take that step forward. I also like Zunino quite a bit, although I wonder if his hit tool holds him back from having elite upside. If he shows significant improvement in his swing mechanics and strikeout rate this college season it’s possible he could be the guy.
I don’t feel very confident that Appel will take the step forward I want to see from him to feel comfortable taking him first overall. It just smells really fishy when a guy with that kind of stuff strikes out so few batters in college. Imagine if he was a 20-year old in single A ball posting those kinds of numbers. How high could you realistically put him then? Cosart had 9.7 K/9 in A-ball and 2.0 BB/9 at age 20. Compare that to Appel’s numbers—7.02 K/9 and 2.37 BB/9 in his last college season.
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I second this
I’m not excited about Appel, AT ALL, for the same reasons. For a college pitcher, his strikeout and walk rates stink. The Astros are hurting for true power types in the mold of Felix, Greinke, Kershaw, etc. We don’t need another guy like Paulino who throws 99 but can’t get strikeouts.
Paulino is a good cautionary example for how stuff isn't everything
That said, Paulino’s problem wasn’t his strikeout rate (8.28 per nine innings over his career). I don’t know what it is which has caused him to consistently underperform his peripherals and stuff… probably some combination of having a flat fastball, not being able to consistently locate it, and inconsistent secondary pitches… plus a dash of bad luck.
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I was thinking of someone else
Though for the life of me I can’t remember who. Wasn’t there a young pitcher recently who threw in the upper 90’s who couldn’t get a strikeout to save his life?
Somebody besides Matt Lindstrom, I mean, though Lindstrom is a good example.
Cosart?
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by Timothy De Block on Feb 7, 2012 4:16 PM CST up reply actions
Nah, not unless he does it again. 2011 was his first year with a K/9 under 9.00. Cosart is only a year older than Appel, and Appel has pitched more innings in college than Cosart has in the minor leagues (Cosart didn’t go to college).
In other words, Appel has far more innings pitched with a low K/9 than Cosart has, and college competition isn’t THAT much worse than rookie or A-ball.
Yeah, I don’t know where you got the idea that Paulino can’t get Ks. His K rate has always been one of the best among baseball’s starting pitchers. I think the biggest part of Paulino’s problems have been injuries. Paulino’s results have been marred by a hgih HR/fly ball rate, and who knows how much of that is controllable vs. luck. If he can maintain his health, I still think he can break out as an elite pitcher for a season or two—-except it will be with the Royals.
I choose Stryker Trahan because of his name.
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by Timothy De Block on Feb 7, 2012 11:13 AM CST reply actions
runs better than most outfielders
Also sounds a bit like Biggio. Which makes me wonder if he’d remain a catcher for very long.
I remember when Biggio was first called up, he got caught in a rundown between 2nd and 3rd and outran the rundown(the other team may have underestimated his speed since he was a catcher).
by Matt McDougle on Feb 7, 2012 11:44 AM CST up reply actions
Nods
This is my thought as well. Teams are just too careful with talents like Stryker to keep him at C, especially when his skillset could play really well at basically any position. If it was a guarantee he’d be kept at C he would probably be my 3rd choice behind Giolito and Zunino.
The Astros has mixed feelings when they converted Biggio to 2d base. On the one hand, he had gone to the all star game as a catcher and the Astros liked having a catcher with special offensive skills. But in the end the Astros believed that catching would put too much pressure on Biggio’s legs and would reduce his longevity and speed.
I voted for Giolito because I think Italians are an ill-represented minority in major league ball and I will not condone racism in a sport that I love. Similarly, if there are any Basque, Zulu, or Kamchatkan representatives, we should draft them also.
Way too early to know. Hopefully somebody will separate and make it obvious. My initial reaction is to take a college arm with #1 upside, which would mean Appel. But if Giolito is the best HS arm in the last 10 years (which it doesn’t appear he’s at that level yet), hard to argue taking him. Also hard to argue taking a 5 tool OF, a stud C, or a SS. Houston is certainly in no position to discriminate based on position.
Surprised that Zunino hasn't gotten a single vote.
He’s my second choice behind Gio (for what it’s worth I rank them Giolito, Zunino, Buxton, Trahan, Appel) and I think he is probably the safest pick of the bunch. I can’t think of an obvious comparison for him but I think he has a great shot to be one of the best catchers in baseball for a long time, even if that doesn’t make him a star in terms of the media. I wouldn’t necessarily liken him to Brian McCann, but he’s a good example of that- probably the most consistently great offensive catcher, and I think a worthy candidate for the hall of fame if he has 4-5 more good years, and yet he gets little respect from the casual fan who gets their baseball info from watching ESPN.
I voted Giolito
the thing i like most about him is his smooth arm action. His mechanics look good and i dont fear that his elbow is going to explode some point down the line. Also he looks to be fairly polished for his age. I like his ceiling more than Appel and believe that if this team wants to win at some point they have to stop taking the safe route and take a risk on someone who could be a superstar.
Kevin Gausman
I think Gausman should at least be a part of the conversation. He is generally considered either the 2nd best or in some cases the top college arm of the draft. Like appel he is polished and is close to MLB ready. I think the astros really need a rotation anchor and fast appel or gausman could provide that but I like gausman a little more, at least at this point.
by lawson3 on Feb 7, 2012 9:43 PM CST via mobile reply actions 1 recs
I actually like Gausman more than Appel
His secondary offerings, like Appel’s, are inconsistent, but from the sounds of it they have even more potential than do Appel’s. He also sounds like he has more projection left. We’ll see how the college season goes- he could force his way into the conversation, but for now he doesn’t seem to be getting much support for 1.1.
I voted for Giolito.
He’s got an electric arsenal like Cosart, and has a great frame at 6’6". If he does in fact have plus command, I’d be willing to wait 3+ years for him to develop.
Finding a guy who can throw in the mid-90s isn’t all that hard, but he’ll likely have mediocre command. To find someone who is just 17 who can throw in the upper 90s and still be able to have plus command is incredibly rare. Also add in his secondary pitches, and I see no reason why not to draft him.
We need more pitching depth. Cosart is our only legitimate pitching prospect, so to add someone like Giolito would do wonders for our farm system, even if he could take 2-4 years to develop. I think he would definitely be worth the wait.
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Monday, May 28, 2012, 2:10 PM CDT Wandy Rodriguez vs Juan Nicasio Sunny. Winds blowing in from center field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 70. |
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
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Cincinnati
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27 | 20 | .574 | 0 | Won 2 |
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St. Louis
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26 | 22 | .541 | 1.5 | Won 1 |
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Pittsburgh
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23 | 24 | .489 | 4 | Won 3 |
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Houston
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22 | 25 | .468 | 5 | Lost 2 |
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Milwaukee
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19 | 28 | .404 | 8 | Lost 2 |
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Chicago
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15 | 32 | .319 | 12 | Lost 12 |
(updated 5.28.2012 at 12:18 AM CDT)
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