The Year of the First Rounders
by ntn on Feb 21, 2012 9:23 PM CST
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PrintThe ducks and geese never left the Fens this year. They decided to stay the whole winter and just ignore the handful of days the water froze over. I, however, unable to fly south, have been hibernating. I don't know about you, but I think it is completely unnatural for the sky to be as dark as midnight at 4:30 in the afternoon. It disturbs the soul and molests the senses. The winter solstice has passed, and the North East is no longer stuck in a Tim Burton film. I'm up now. Soon I will be able to hear the fans at Fenway cheer whenever the Bloated-Payroll-Sox stumble into something good with dollar bills falling out of their pockets. I plan on going to some Sox games. I think I will try to go when they play the Braves so I can actually pull for them. As fun as going to a packed Fenway Pahk will be, I'm more interested to see what happens with the Astros' first rounders.
2012 looks to be the year of the first rounder. And I don't just mean the first overall pick. I want to see how Jason Castro's season unfolds. A lot of people around the Crawfishboxes lamented that the Astros picked Castro in the first round. I understand their thinking, but I also understand the Astros' thinking. There are worse things in the world than getting an everyday catcher who does everything he needs to do behind the plate as well as hit better than a league average catcher. Castro had solid minor league numbers while being rushed through the system but was not an eye-popping offensive player. The one thing I've always been excited about was his OBA, something that the Astros as a whole have needed to work on. Castro's had some tough luck, but he still has a chance to be the Astros' number one catcher for years to come.
After taking Castro, the Astros continued their up the middle trend when they took Meir. Unlike Castro, Meir has struggled pretty much every year as pro aside from his debut. Also like Castro, Meir's best feature so far as been his willingness to take a walk. Many are loosing faith in Meir...I'm am too. But I'm not ready to give up on a SS that was supposed to play good defense and have good power.
Next we have Delino Deshields Jr. What is going to happen with him? Like the Castro pick, many fans were disappointed when Deshields was selected, and like Meir, Deshields didn't have a very good first full year. He did, however, improve as the year went on, and he could very well show everyone why he moved up as high as he did in the draft.
Springer represents a change of pace. His selection made just about every Astros fan happy. Even the national media applauded the pick. Who could have a problem with taking a guy who is compared to Carlos Belran? We didn't see enough of him to learn anything last year, and he comes with the caveat of being "very raw" to temper our expectations (DDJ had the same caveat and was much younger, yet we the people were still pissed (not in the in the British sense)). His selection boosted our farm system's ranking without him even getting an at bat. If he struggles or just has a solid season many will be disappointed. I fear even that the ornery lot of professional farm-system-rankers might knock the system down a notch if he just looks meh in his first season. No pressure, Spring!
Castro could make 2012 more bearable and remove a question mark for years to come. Meir could still show his glove/power combo. Deshields could take one step closer to being an elite lead-off second baseman. Oh, excuse me. I have to sneeze...ah...ah...ah...ahbiggio. Springer could be a middle of the order bat that plays center field. The first round pick could very well be Jesus, Tim Tebow (wasn't that an Ewok's name in Return of the Jedi?), and or Babe Ruth. The difference between an ideal world where all these guys take steps forward, and the worst case scenario where they all falter is huge. Of all of them, I feel like Meir is the least important after the acquisition of Villar. I kind of hope that Meir improves his hitting but has to move to third since we are so thin over there.
What do you guys think? Am I the only one that thinks these guys are the difference between a great year and five more years of winter? What do you expect from these first rounders?
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Virtually a 1st rounder at every position
C- Castro still has above average everyday catcher ceiling. Kvasnicka is a wildcard but as a 1st rounder he obviously has some talent. In the end, I think that Castro will end up as a slightly below average everyday catcher and Kvasnicka ends up as a backup.
1B- Nothing much here, although Singleton is plenty good (I treat top 100 prospects the same as 1st rounders). I think Singleton ends up as a slightly above average everyday 1B.
2B- DeShields will break out this year if you ask me. If not, Altuve can hold it down for awhile. I think DeShields ends up as an average everyday 2B, same for Altuve.
SS- Mier is in a make or break year, although I’m not very optimistic. At this point I see him as a bench player. I’m way more excited about Villar. I think both Mier and Villar end up as bench players.
3B-Brett Wallace could provide huge value if it all comes together for him at 3rd this year. Other than that, this is a position where Houston is very short on good prospects. I think Wallace tops out as a fringe starter at 1B/3B.
OF- Springer needs to become a franchise cornerstone. I think he’ll be in AA by the end of this year. Not 1st rounders, but I’m excited about Domingo Santana, Fernando Martinez, JD Martinez, and Ariel Ovando as long term solutions in Houston’s OF. I think Springer ends up an all-star. I think Santana and JD Martinez end up as above average starters, while Fernando Martinez makes a career as a good 4th OF. I think Ovando busts.
The ’stros have apparently been reluctant to take SPs with their 1st rounders, only taking Lyles and Foltynewicz with supplemental picks. Those 2 along with Cosart will have to form the core of the long term rotation. They have enough depth that the back end of the rotation and the bullpen should be fine but all 3 of Folty, Cosart, and Lyles becoming front-line starters is very unlikely. I suspect that Houston will use the #1 pick on a SP so that will help. I see Cosart as an average #2, Lyles as an average #3, and Folty as a back-end starter.
All these 1st round and Top 100 guys should be enough to form a core, allowing increased payroll to fill in the gaps to form a sustainably competitive/winning team by 2015, maybe even 2014. I think the bottom is behind us as Astros’ fans.
I didn’t want to say make or break for Mier. It does feel that way. I really hope that there is something that they have him working on. He has stretches where he looks ok. I guess he did get promoted last season when he had a solid yet not great start.
I’m optimistic about Deshields and Springer but the fact that they are both “raw” and Springer is a college player has me very nervous. But even if they don’t blow up this season I won’t be ready to give up on either. I think springer has the best shot to be something special but DDJ has the longest leash of all the first rounders.
by ntn on Feb 22, 2012 3:24 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
I wouldn’t call this year a make or break year for Mier. He is 21 years old, and it’s not unreasonable to say that he will be a prospect through at least age 25. So he has 3 years beyond this season to prove himself. I sometimes compare him to the track of the Rays’ Tim Beckham, a shortstop who was the first pick in the 2008 draft. His hitting had been disappointing until this season, when he moved up to AA and then AAA with a .741 OPS and a trip to the Futures Games. He is 1 year older than Mier, by the way.
Foltynewicz
He was the #19 pick, so he was a first round pick; not a supplemental pick.
by Woodlands'stro on Feb 22, 2012 6:12 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
The failure rate for first round picks ins something like 30%, if I recall So, if the Astros can get half of those first rounders to succeed, they will be doing better than average.
The last chart I saw showed that ~60% of top 25 picks reach the majors, with ~40% becoming everyday players and ~20% becoming all-stars. I would guess that the odds are roughly the same for prospects on the most well-known Top 100 lists. That means the stats say that Houston has ~3 future all-stars in their system, with another 2 or 3 future everyday players/starters and 2-3 future bench players from the names I listed above. Hopefully Houston will have some good luck and their success rate will be higher not only with their 1st round/Top 100 types, but with their lesser-rated prospects as well.
by Snake Diggity on Feb 22, 2012 11:30 AM CST up reply actions
I think I was thinking of this study which is a long term study of Baseball America Top 100 players. The overall bust rate for Top 100 prospects is 69%, meaning that the success rate is 31%. (The numbers are sharply different for pitchers and position players, with a 77% bust rate for pitchers and 63% for position players.)
Here is a table of success rates by draft round. If you consider “starter-solid regular” to be “success,” the success rate of first round picks is 41%.
Off-hand I don’t recall a study of top 25 draft pick success rates, but I think there was a study of Top 25 Baseball America prospects, which is referenced in the first link above. Maybe that is what you are thinking about?
No, what I was looking at (this was just yesterday but I can’t recall where) was an article reviewing the value of choosing HS vs College players. It had a chart showing success rates to varying degrees. It made 3 conclusions at the end of the article basically saying that position players were worth more than pitchers, HS players were much more likely to become stars, and that picks 1-20 were much more valuable than those immediately following.
It’s interesting that the success rate of Top 100 guys is lower than 1st rd guys. I guessed (incorrectly) that it would be similar or better, since the folks making the Top 100 lists have the benefit of minor league performance and a larger pool to draw from.
by Snake Diggity on Feb 22, 2012 2:48 PM CST up reply actions
Does anyone know what the average pitcher composition of the Top 100 is? I wonder if that could explain the difference between first rounders vs. Top 100 success rates.
by my quickcount, this year’s BA list has 44 pitchers and 56 position players. Not sure how that compares to previous years/other lists and too lazy to do the work.
by Snake Diggity on Feb 22, 2012 4:48 PM CST up reply actions
We have to temper our expectations of a 1st-rounder based upon where they were picked in the round
The fact is that very few first rounders outside the first half dozen to dozen picks in a given year amount to much of anything (just look at the Baseball Reference 1st round draft pages for recent years such as 2000-2007, and see where the highest career WAR guys are being chosen in the round). Once you get beyond them, you’re really picking players who aren’t all that different from the next thirty or forty players still on the draft board.
So our highest hopes as Astros fans should be pinned on the 2012 first overall pick, DeShields (#8 overall), Castro (#10 overall), Springer (#11 overall) and our lowest hopes should be pinned to Mier (#21 overall), Foltyniewicz (#19 overall), and supplemental guys such as Lyles (#38 overall). We’re basically disregarding recent baseball history if we’re counting on Mier, Foltyniewicz, and/or Lyles to become big league regulars or better; if it happens, why that’s fantastic; if not, we shouldn’t be disgusted because that’s what history tells us was the most likely outcome with that selection. Same goes with grading Heck and his scouting and drafting team on their first round performance – we have to judge how well they picked against where they were picking.
by reillocity on Feb 22, 2012 6:39 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
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Cincinnati
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St. Louis
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Pittsburgh
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Houston
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