Pre-Season Top 15 Prospects
by kstanz41 on Feb 20, 2012 8:43 AM CST
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Here is my top 15 prospects for the Astros this year. The stats are from the 2011 season and this list can also be found here at Diamond Prospects.
1. George Springer, OF - 28 AB, .179/.303/.393, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB, 2 K, 4 SB 0 CS (SS)
The 5-tool 1st rounder has shown vast improvements with his plate discipline and contact rate to go with his power potential and speed in centerfield.
2. Jonathan Singleton, 1B - 449 AB, .298/.392/.441 13 HR 63 RBI, 70 BB, 123 K, 3 SB 3 CS (A+)
Extremely advanced for a 20-year old 1B, he could use a little boost in power, but will develop into an elite prospect with a breakout year.
3. Jarred Cosart, RHP - 10-10, 4.12 ERA, 144.1 IP, 131 H, 56 BB, 101 K (A+/AA)
A less than stellar year coupled with concerns on his mechanics have caused some opinions of him to drop, but he has still has frontline potential with 3 above-average to plus pitches.
4. Jonathan Villar, SS - 498 AB, .241/.320/.396, 14 HR, 52 RBI, 54 BB, 156 K, 34 SB 12 CS (A+/AA)
Villar has been rushed way too quickly and a full year back in AA is needed. His potential is through the roof but he needs a lot of refinement at the plate.
5. Brett Oberholtzer, LHP - 11-12, 4.01 ERA, 155 IP, 147 H, 52 BB, 121 K (AA)
This polished, crafty left-hander has solid command of 4 average or better pitches. Could definitely contribute in Houston at some point this year.
6. Domingo Santana, OF - 418 AB, .287/.362/.471, 12 HR, 53 RBI, 32 BB, 135 K, 5 SB 1 CS (A)
Santana has a huge frame that gives plus-plus power potential if he can solve his plate discipline issues. Should start the year in Lancaster where his bat can really take off at just 19 years old.
7. Paul Clemens, RHP - 8-7, 3.81 ERA, 144 IP, 130 H, 62 BB, 125 K (AA/AAA)
Another four-pitch starter with good command, Clemens has a better fastball than Oberholtzer. He sits up his secondary offerings well off his 93-94 mph heater.
8. Kyle Weiland, RHP - 8-10, 3.58 ERA, 128.1 IP, 108 H, 55 BB, 126 K (AAA)
Got lit up in his short stint in the majors, but still enjoyed a successful year in AAA. Should have a better time in the Majors in the offensively-challenged NL Central.
9. Mike Foltynewicz, RHP - 5-11, 4.97 ERA, 134 IP, 149 H, 51 BB, 81 K (A)
A 2010 1st-round pick, Folty got hit around and had a hard time striking batters out despite a power arsenal. By no means rule him out though, as he could shoot up this list with if he improves his command and secondary offerings.
10. Nick Tropeano, RHP - 3-2, 2.36 ERA, 53.1 IP, 42 H, 21 BB, 63 K (SS)
A personal favorite of mine out of Stony Brook, Tropeano has a great feel for pitching and should have enough stuff to succeed at higher levels.
11. Austin Wates, OF - 526 AB, .300/.366/.413, 6 HR, 75 RBI, 47 BB, 86 K, 26 SB 7 CS (A+)
A speedy outfielder with good plate discipline, Wates is going to need to show more power to escape being a 4th outfielder-type player.
12. Telvin Nash, 1B/OF - 268 AB, .269/.373/.485, 14 HR, 37 RBI, 40 BB, 103 K, 2 SB 0 CS (A)
The powerful Nash can mash the ball, but was crippled by strikeouts at Lexington and will probably be a below-average defender. If he can figure out how to swing-and-miss less than he has Cecil Fielder-type upside.
13. Ross Seaton, RHP - 4-9, 5.23 ERA, 155 IP, 168 H, 47 BB, 97 K (AA)
Seaton is a overlooked as a prospect despite his quality stuff because he hasn't produced as hoped. Has been rushed and could benefit from another year at Corpus Christi.
14. Delino DeShields, Jr., 2B - 469 AB, .220/.305/.322, 9 HR, 48 RBI, 52 BB, 118 K, 30 SB 11 CS (A)
A disappointing year for the 2010 #8 pick as he struggled to get on-base and hit for little power. The tools are still there and he is very young so DeShields is still one to watch.
15. Adrian Houser, RHP - 2-4, 4.31 ERA, 48 IP, 49 H, 25 BB, 44 K (RK)
A 2nd-round pick from Oklahoma Houser has all the potential of a power frontline starter, but is going to need a lot of development to get there.
SLEEPER
Chase Davidson, 1B - 161 AB, .335/.426/.646, 11 HR, 44 RBI, 24 BB, 51 K, 8 SB 1 CS (RK)
A 3rd-round pick by the Astros in 2008, Davidson didn't develop as well as some predicted when he went to Georgia. He still has the big frame and raw power to succeed in the minors and he dominated in the Appalachian League in his debut.
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Initial thoughts are that Oberholtzer is a few spots too high IMO, but can be understandable. My main issue is that DDJ is WAY too low. He’s a top 10 2B prospect in baseball. Given it’s always a thin position because it’s mostly SS that move over as a last resort, but he’s definitely a top 10 in the system.
Other than that, I could get on board with most of it. Springer is 2 or 3 because of his lack of experience.
Subber, I agree with you about DDJ. I would probably reverse the positions of Singleton and Cosart. I would probably reverse the positions of Oberholzer and Clemens. But those are just matters of subjective choice…some prospect lists have Cosart above Singleton, and others are vice versa; same for Clemens and Oberholzer. I wouldn’t rank Houser that high, but I could see him coming on to a ranking that high or higher during this next season. I might add Jack Armstrong to the top 15. I probably would put Ariel Ovando in the Top 15.
My thoughts:
The top 4 seem to be consenus no matter who does the rankings.
5-10 usually has a few surprises. You have Oberholtzer and Tropeano higher than most people would rank them.
I think all 4 college arms from the ‘11 draft (Armstrong, Tropeano, Hallock, Dufek) have a chance for their stock to shoot up dramatically with good starts to 2012. Armstrong has top 100 upside and Tropeano could be a top 200 prospect if he puts up #’s similar to his 2011 performance.
You have DeShields lower than most.
Kvasnicka’s move back to catcher gives him a chance to raise his stock tremendously.
No Jio Mier in the top 15? I guess he and Jay Austin are both on a steep downward trajectory at this point.
My sleepers: Chris Wallace, Jon Meyer, Roberto Pena, Brandon Meredith. Also look out for Jose Cisnero, Kyle Hallock, Ruben Alaniz, and Mike Feliz.
I kind of agree with the list.
I have Santana and Clemens over Obie, and I have DeShields ahead of Tropeano.
Also have Nash ahead of Wates.
My sleepers are Brandon Meredith and Kyle Hallock, but the guy who I think might be the biggest sleeper is Javaris Reynolds, our 7th round pick last year. He’s got great tools and is a great athlete, but he was picked out of high school, so he’s still very raw. He’s already got plus-plus speed, and could have good power potential. He has the upside of a 3rd or maybe even a 2nd round pick, but he’s got a long way to go.
"Hakeem couldn't kick your ass cuz you were too
close kissin his!"- Sir Charles to Kenny Smith.
Jake Buchanan
Put up great stats at Lancaster. He might be a sleeper. It will be interesting to see how he does at AA this year.
Where do you guys think Tropeano starts the season? Could he be a Lancaster guy? Very much looking forward to seeing what he does this year.
I’m guessing Lancaster. IIRC, he’s a changeup specialist, which might limit the damage Lancaster can do. It’d be nice if Tropeano, Hallock, and Dufek could all dominate Lancaster in the 1st half and earn promotions to Corpus, meaning they could be in Houston by late 2013.
by Snake Diggity on Feb 20, 2012 3:32 PM CST up reply actions
Did anyone see Folty’s interview in his hometown paper? He said he hoped to start in AA Corpus this year. He said the organization told him that they don’t like to send their best pitching prospects to Lancaster, or something to that effect. We have speculated that to be the organization’s philosophy, but he confirmed it.
If they don’t want to send him to Lancaster, keep him in Lexington another year. I’m wondering if the Luhnow run front office told him that or Wade’s.
I’d rather see him start in Lexington.
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by Timothy De Block on Feb 21, 2012 7:17 AM CST up reply actions
I read one expert
That said that after Bauer, Hultzen and Sean Gilmartin, Tropeano’s changeup was the very best in the draft.
BA also ranks us 17th among farm systems
Lot more love from them than from most. I think Bullpen Banter was also high on our farm.
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3 Mike Trout of, Angels Age: 20. ETA: 2012.
4 Yu Darvish rhp, Rangers Age: 25. ETA: 2012.
6 Jesus Montero c, Mariners Age: 22. ETA: 2012.
7 Jurickson Profar ss, Rangers Age: 19. ETA: 2013
14 Yoenis Cespedes of, Athletics Age: 26. ETA: 2012.
20 Taijuan Walker rhp, Mariners Age: 19. ETA: 2014.
21 Danny Hultzen lhp, Mariners Age: 22. ETA: 2012.
26 Jarrod Parker rhp, Athletics Age: 23. ETA: 2012.
31 Martin Perez lhp, Rangers Age: 21. ETA: 2013.
34 Jonathan Singleton 1b/of, Astros Age: 20. ETA: 2013.
36 Brad Peacock rhp, Athletics Age: 24. ETA: 2012.
43 Mike Olt 3b, Rangers Age: 23. ETA: 2013.
50 Jarred Cosart rhp, Astros Age: 21. ETA: 2013.
52 James Paxton lhp, Mariners Age: 23. ETA: 2012.
55 Jean Segura ss, Angels Age: 22. ETA: 2013.
57 A.J. Cole rhp, Athletics Age: 20. ETA: 2014.
59 George Springer of, Astros Age: 22. ETA: 2013.
65 Sonny Gray rhp, Athletics Age: 22. ETA: 2013.
77 Nick Franklin ss/2b, Mariners Age: 21. ETA: 2013.
79 Leonys Martin of, Rangers Age: 24. ETA: 2012.
80 Michael Choice of, Athletics Age: 22. ETA: 2013.
83 Garrett Richards rhp, Angels Age: 23. ETA: 2012.
100 Christian Villanueva 3b, Rangers Age: 20. ETA: 2014.
top 25
Angels- 1
Astros- 0
Athletics- 1
Mariners- 3
Rangers- 2
top 50
Angels- 1
Astros- 2
Athletics- 3
Mariners- 3
Rangers- 4
top 100
Angels- 3
Astros- 4
Athletics- 6
Mariners- 5
Rangers- 6
Is a 2013 ETA for Singleton and Springer optimistic? I think so. It’s possible, but I tend to think that 2014 is more likely. (It’s unclear to me if Sept. call ups count toward the ETA….if so, then maybe I don’t disagree.)
With Singleton more than likely starting in AA this year, I think June of 2013 is a reasonable estimation. Springer seems a bit optimistic, though.
Having said that, I am crossing my fingers that Springer can catch up with Singleton, sooner rather than later. It’s crazy that he’s a full 2 years older.
It’s likely that regardless of where Springer begins the year, with a good 1st half he will be in Corpus for hte 2nd half of 2012, putting him in position to possibly compete for a big league job in 2013 or at worst be a 2013 callup.
What excites me most about the astros system is that they’ve finally got the bulk of their best prospects in full-season ball. By the end of the year, Singleton, Villar, Mier, Santana, Springer, Wates, Cosart, Folty, and Oberholtzer should all be in AA or higher. Add that group to Castro, Altuve, Paredes, BWallace, JD Martinez, F Martinez, Lyles, Weiland, Clemens, Aneury, Cruz, etc. and the core should all be in the bigs before 2014.
by Snake Diggity on Feb 22, 2012 4:53 PM CST up reply actions
I think it's pretty realistic
Moreso for Singleton than Springer, as Singleton is an advanced hitter who should be in AA ball for 2012 if everything goes according to plan.
I also think Springer will move quickly due to his age, work ethic, and tools. I can see him as a September callup in ’13.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Whoops... gave the Stros one too many
top 25
Angels- 1
Astros- 0
Athletics- 1
Mariners- 3
Rangers- 2
top 50
Angels- 1
Astros- 2
Athletics- 3
Mariners- 3
Rangers- 4
top 100
Angels- 3
Astros- 3
Athletics- 6
Mariners- 5
Rangers- 6
Altuve would have been in top 50. Callis said Villar is the unofficial #103 prospect. JD may have possibly made it. DDJ was close as well.
We can probably add Jordan Lyles into that mix with J.D and Altuve.
by MadMartygan on Feb 21, 2012 11:33 AM CST up reply actions
I cannot imagine that anyone has DDJ sniffing the top 100 at this point
I still have plenty of hope for DDJ but he has to prove it before he can be considered in that range… top 100 prospects are guys that have tools AND production to back it up, or, at least more than DDJ showed last year. I love his tools and he seemed to get things going closer to the end of last year, but he’s still incredibly raw and at this point is a C+ prospect with upside, which is simply not a top 100 player, or even top 150.
Depends on how you weight your prospects. A list heavy on tools could easily have him close to top 100. I never said he was a top 100 player. Just close. If DDJ has a big year, he’s no doubt a top 100 guy with his tools. He actually had very good stretches and showed lots of improvement in a lot of areas.
to expand
I have DDJ as a B- which is still not a top 100 either, but those who look more heavily at tools could put him at B and close to top 100. Look at BA having Villar in the top 100 last year based on tools, he had no production either, however he was closer to majors than DDJ is.
DDJ vs. Villar
DDJ has one plus tool, his speed. In fact, I’d probably say it is plus-plus based on his scouting reports. His hit tool is obviously below average, as is his defense (though his future defense projects to be very good). His intangibles at this point are a negative after the DUI, I haven’t found any info on his work ethic but I obviously hope he’s dedicated. His power is a point of contention, I’d probably rate it as above average personally. Villar on the other hand has plus-plus defense, plus speed, and a below-average hit tool that I think will be average in the future. A shortstop with a sterling glove and 15 HR/35 SB potential is a much more valuable prospect (AT THIS POINT) than a guy like DDJ, who is all projection. Villar didn’t have a great year statistically, but he gave you a look at what he could turn into.
Villar’s defense is not plus-plus currently. Its a work in progress and also a projection. As is DDJ who has the athleticism to project to at least above-avg defense if not plus. DDJ and Villar both have below avg hit tools currently but both project to have solid hit tools. DDJ also projects to have similar power potential and better speed. Sure Villar is more polished but he is expected to since he’s playing professionally longer and plays a more valuable position. But, the fact is DDJ is an up the middle player with great atleticism and tools. DDJ is close to where Villar was last year when rankings came out.
Again, you have to remember that DDJ was very young for the league. I am not that disappointed in his season—-the results are what I would expect for a guy who was that young against players 2 – 3 years older,, whom was making a position change (with the Astros telling him to make that his paramount goal last year), and who devoted so much time to football in high school. He still has the tools and potential that made him a first round pick, and he is making the progress that you want to see at this point, particularly with respect to playing 2d base.
I didn't expect him to knock the cover off the ball
But for a player who went as high as he did in the draft his season was still disappointing. Like I said I still have plenty of faith in Delino but he showed so little at the plate. Dramatic improvement is necessary and while he has the tools to do it he’s more of a lottery ticket than top prospect at this point. Villar was equally young for his league as a 20 year old in AA, and he did okay, not great, but at least showed why he’s highly touted.
Lyles, Altuve, and Martinez would all be in the top 100 mix had they not been called up.
This list should look a lot better for Houston next year. None of their 3 top 100 prospects should make the majors this year (making them eligible again for next year’s list), and there are several prospects on the fringe of hte top 100 who could join them with good 2012 seasons: whoever they draft #1, plus Villar, Santana, Foltynewicz, and DeShields, with Ovando, Feliz, Velasquez, Houser, Armstrong, Oberholtzer, Mier, Nash, and Kvasnicka all having a small chance. I would predict 4-6 top 100’s for Houston on next year’s list.
by Snake Diggity on Feb 21, 2012 12:43 PM CST up reply actions
I would be very nice to add this guy to the list.
Zachary Levine @zacharylevine Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
Astros eyeing elite Cuban OF Jorge Soler, and GM Luhnow gives thoughts on trip to Dominican. tinyurl.com/794veha
by MadMartygan on Feb 21, 2012 1:15 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
Chicago papers have said that the Cubs already have a deal in place for Soler. Chicago sports writers frequently play fast and loose with concepts like “accuracy”, so I don’t know if I believe it. But if the Cubs have been pre-arranging a contract before Soler is even eligible as a free agent, MLB should do something to stop it. However, the dollars discussed in that article ($27.5 million) were very high, and if true might give you second thoughts about signing him.
Paying him that kind of money seems to suggests that you see him as a guy who will move quickly and is already pretty close to ML-ready for a 19 year old.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Do free agent rules apply to a situation like this? You don’t get the 6 years of team control and minor league time, do you?
It depends on what the contract says. It will be a ML contract, meaning that Soler will be on the 40 man roster. The team control period applies, unless it is modified by contract . The contract can waive or modify the period of arb eligibility. This apparently is common for the first contract of international free agents coming from Japan. In this case, the parties could provide for mutual options at the end of the contract, for instance, instead of arbitration team control. So it will depend on the negotiated contract. Chapman’s contract with the Reds is a comparable contract situation. Cot’s provides this information on Chapman:
Chapman must decide whether to accept or decline 2015 player option within 5 days after end of 2014 World Series
if Chapman qualifies for arbitration after 2012, $5M is converted to a bonus and he becomes arbitration-eligible
if Chapman qualifies for arbitration after 2013, $3M is converted to a bonus and he becomes arbitration-eligible
I love Soler as a prospect, don't get me wrong
Like I said, I think he’s very similar to Josh Bell of Pittsburgh. However, that much money is a massive risk for an unpolished 19 year old kid… If he doesn’t pan out that’s an above-average MLB player level contract down the drain. I wouldn’t be upset if they signed him or anything, it’s just… scary.
The story that Soler has agreed with the Cubs was debunked from what I heard
Though they are still interested. It’s great to hear that the Astros are making a run at him though, I’ve been praying that they’d get in the ring. I love Soler, he reminds me a lot of Pittsburgh prospect Josh Bell.
Bam
Thinking is the hardest work there is, which is probably the reason why so few engage in it. - Henry Ford
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Current Series
4 game series vs Rockies @ Coors Field
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Houston Astros
Monday, May 28, 2012, 2:10 PM CDT Wandy Rodriguez vs Juan Nicasio Sunny. Winds blowing in from center field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 70. |
||
| Mon 05/28 | 7:10 PM CDT | |
| Wed 05/30 | 7:40 PM CDT | |
| Thu 05/31 | 7:40 PM CDT | |
NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
27 | 20 | .574 | 0 | Won 2 |
|
St. Louis
|
26 | 22 | .541 | 1.5 | Won 1 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
23 | 24 | .489 | 4 | Won 3 |
|
Houston
|
22 | 25 | .468 | 5 | Lost 2 |
|
Milwaukee
|
19 | 28 | .404 | 8 | Lost 2 |
|
Chicago
|
15 | 32 | .319 | 12 | Lost 12 |
(updated 5.28.2012 at 12:18 AM CDT)
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