How many wins for the 2012 Astros?
by Astro Freak on Feb 13, 2012 6:31 PM CST
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PrintJust mulling over my thoughts before Spring Training her and wanted to test the water of the Astros faithful and post this poll. Just wanted to see where you guys think we are at before Spring Training since spring is every cellar dwellar's most hopeful time of the year. Anybody here think that the Astros can compete before 2020? This is my first fan post so tell me how I did thanks. Go Stros!!!!!!!!!!!
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Honestly? Better than last year.
That may sound surprising with the loss of Pence and Bourn, but I don’t see it as impossible. I would peg us for 63 wins, no 100 losses for us this year! lol I think we have a lot of low risk, decent reward guys to pick from in spring training, and I hope the right ones get picked.
I think there are some forces pushing in the direction of a better record. There is a normal regression for high loss teams, plus the Astros may have regression in their Pythag, given that their runs scored and runs allowed were 6 – 7 games better than their actual record. I think the bullpen could be a big difference maker for the ultimate record, and predicting bullpen performance can be a fool’s errand.
I'm bugged that Clint Barmes won't be at short
I worry his absence will cost Astros 1 or 2 extra runs A GAME- That’ll lead to a lot of extra losses.
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Feb 15, 2012 10:32 PM CST up reply actions
65 wins, +/- 15. There’s a lot of sway in the record projection when you factor in this team’s youth, injury history, and luck. I wouldn’t be surprised by 50 wins, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they get close to 80. The goal should just be an improvement over last year, and avoid 100 losses.
65 wins
Almost certainly another top 3 pick in the draft, though maybe not the number one pick.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
I think that’s probably a pretty good guess. In the grand scheme of things another top 3 pick in the draft would be good to have. Hopefully after this upcoming season the Astros wont see to many more top picks in the draft.
by conroestro on Feb 14, 2012 5:07 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
I am going to say 64
We have a lot of question marks, and on the surface it would seem that our record could vary wildly. Of course having options at a bunch of positions means we are less likely to see an awful player get a ton of play on this roster, either a vet or a rookie will be waiting in AAA to take the place of anyone who is abysmally bad. Of course that works both ways, since we have vets on minor league deals and AAAA players to take their place, if any one of our vets over-performs significantly we stand a good chance of moving them for more rebuilding pieces.
We could touch on 100 losses this season, but if we do it means we have likely moved quite a few players at the deadline and have improved our future standing.
my bet is 60 on the dot
were i forced to take the over under on that, id say under though. i think they’ll be picking first again in 2013, which is probably for the best.
A pretty fair season preview from Jonah Keri
I think we are slowly getting these guys on our side. There was a minimum of jokes and they were reserved for the previous regime. http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/17320/2012-mlb-season-preview-houston-astros
If those Bill James projections end up being accurate, I will be pleased. Basically Schafer is the only player projected to put up a terrible offensive performance, and the rotation would feature 3 guys putting up #2-#3 type ERAs, with the 2 other guys not being completely abysmal.
A 740 OPS for Altuve is great. Martinez putting up 800+ OPS would also rock. And getting a 780+ OPS out of your SS is really good for a team as bad as Houston.
by Snake Diggity on Feb 15, 2012 1:31 PM CST up reply actions
Although James appears to be VERY optimistic after looking at his projections for STL and PIT.
by Snake Diggity on Feb 15, 2012 1:37 PM CST up reply actions
The general take seems to be that James is optimistic on hitters, but not pitchers. He may have better numbers for some pitchers compared to ZIPS or Roto but it’s due to differing players evaluations rather than general optimism. We don’t know why James is optimistic on hitters, because we don’t know exactly how the projections are done. But I have seen people surmise that James maintains too high a scoring environment. As you probably know, league scoring has been on the decline. James’ projections may be biased due to relying on too long a period to establish league scoring environment or perhaps no updating the scoring environment frequently enough.
75 wins
“Anybody here think the Astros can compete before 2020?” Before 2020? Serouisly?? The job that Luhnow is doing and if everything goes right, we could be WS Champs by 2015! If everything goes right THIS year and Magoo Mills doesn’t screw up like last year, we could be a 73-78 win team.
The smarter people might actually delay it a bit
if they decide that the first “salvo” of talent is not going to get it done and there is not enough talent density in the minors we might see some selling of young players who have younger more talented guys behind them in order to bolster our overall talent level… it might delay our return to competitiveness… say to 2016 or so… but it also might make our peak higher and more sustainable.
Of course we currently have no contracts that extend to 2015 so we will have plenty of space if we need it.
Very good points. I think that is in the model of KC or Oakland and other small market clubs. As much as it gets said, Houston does not have to operate like a small market club.
As a middle market club
we could hold on to some of the best guys while cycling out the good to average every day players and role players around them.
I’d say we can sustain a top 1/3 payroll. Upper middle market and it can rise as the team gets better. That’s what we were, and Drayton wasn’t really a big spender.
For what it’s worth, MLB classifies the Astros as a large market team. I’m not sure what the metrics are for that classification, but i assume that it is based on population, media market, etc. For that reason, the Astros will never be eligible to be a net recipient of revenue sharing or a beneficiary of the competitive balance lottery.
I feel we're right at the borderline
I’d probably lean toward “middle market”, but it’s all semantics anyway.
I feel like we ought to be able to support a payroll in the low $100M range. $110M at the highest (not adjusted for inflation whenever we become competitive again).
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
I think we can get similar to Philly, but without Ruben Amaro being our GM. I think our cash will go further even if they do spend a bit more.
by MadMartygan on Feb 19, 2012 10:57 PM CST up reply actions
Kevin Gausman's first start...
I will undoubtedly see a lot of him since im and LSU fan. Of course I would rather Lucas Giolito be the pick, but if we are intent on a college arm then I think Gausman deserves to be in the conversation.
Clicking on your link just opens this thread. Copy and paste worked though.
http://www.lsusports.net//ViewContent.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=5200&CONTENT_ID=185814
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Current Series
4 game series vs Rockies @ Coors Field
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Houston Astros
Monday, May 28, 2012, 2:10 PM CDT Wandy Rodriguez vs Juan Nicasio Sunny. Winds blowing in from center field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 70. |
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| Mon 05/28 | 7:10 PM CDT | |
| Wed 05/30 | 7:40 PM CDT | |
| Thu 05/31 | 7:40 PM CDT | |
NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
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27 | 20 | .574 | 0 | Won 2 |
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St. Louis
|
26 | 22 | .541 | 1.5 | Won 1 |
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Pittsburgh
|
23 | 24 | .489 | 4 | Won 3 |
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Houston
|
22 | 25 | .468 | 5 | Lost 2 |
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Milwaukee
|
19 | 28 | .404 | 8 | Lost 2 |
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Chicago
|
15 | 32 | .319 | 12 | Lost 12 |
(updated 5.28.2012 at 12:18 AM CDT)
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