The Sophomore Slump: Position Player Edition
by conroestro on Feb 13, 2012 1:42 AM CST
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I chose to sample rookies who debuted during the time frame of the years 2000-2010, and compare that to their second season in the majors. According to MLB's official rules a player is considered a rookie as long as they do not exceed 130 major league at-bats or accumulate more than 45 days on the active 25-man roster during previous seasons. Because determining the amount of days spent on the active roster was difficult, I chose to determine rookie status based on players who have not previously exceeded 130 at-bats during a season. I also chose to use the season in which the player broke the 130 at-bat plateau as their rookie season and not the season in which they first experienced the majors. As an example Lance Berkman played in 34 games in 1999 and accumulated 106 plate appearances, but did not surpass the 130 at-bat mark until the following season, therefore that season is used as his rookie season for this exercise.
There were a total of 607 position player rookies who appeared in the majors from 2000-2010. The chart below lists the accumulated averages of each year’s rookie class’ walk percentage, strikeout percentage, batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. Stats highlighted in yellow represent which season’s performance (Rookie or Sophomore) was more productive, and stats highlighted in blue represent no change from the first season to the second season. All stats used for this year were gathered from the Fangraphs database.
• The overall totals show that the average rookie played in 5.67 more games and had about 31 more plate appearances in their second season. The walk percentage and strikeout percentages for the players sampled only saw marginal changes between the rookie and sophomore seasons. The average batting average decreased 10 points, on-base percentage decreased 7 points, and slugging percentage decreased 15 points during the players second season.
• Out of the 607 rookies sampled 59.64% (362 players) saw a decline in their offensive production during their sophomore season, and 40.36% (245 players) saw an improvement in offensive production during their second season in the majors.
• 8.40% of the players sampled did not play in the majors at all the season after their rookie campaign, and of that group 4.78% have either never played in the majors again, or has not yet made it back to the majors.
The information above shows that from 2000-2010 the average player had about a 60% chance of seeing a decline in his offensive production during his second season. The year-to-year totals varied each season with the high being 72% of players sampled declining in the year 2004, and only 45% declining in the year 2003. One interesting thing to note is that even though the players walk rates improved in their second season, albeit only slightly, their overall on-base percentage still decreased. This is probably due to the fact that a players batting average on balls in play decreased from .303 during the players rookie season to .292 during the players second season.
Now that that’s out of the way, the Astros have 5 position players (Jose Altuve, Brian Bogusevic, Carlos Corporan, J.D. Martinez, and Jimmy Paredes) that could potentially enter their second season in the majors this year depending on whether or not they make the team out of spring training. Out of the five, Brian Bogusevic, J.D. Martinez, and Jose Altuve figure to be good candidates to make the opening day roster. Jimmy Paredes looks to be competing for the third base job with Chris Johnson, and dare I say Brett Wallace. Carlos Corporan doesn’t appear to have a shot at breaking camp with the club.
I’m not going to waste a lot of time on Carlos Corporan here, so we will move on to the remaining four. Most projections for the 2012 season show to have J.D. Martinez and Jose Altuve improving upon their rookie seasons while Brian Bogusevic and Jimmy Paredes are both projected to decline offensively, although Bogusevic’s projected decline is not as drastic as Paredes’ is.
Even though his walk rate decreased and his strikeout rate increased last season compared to his minor league totals, Martinez did not flash the warning signs of a player destined to regress a la Chris Johnson. His batting average on balls in play was .325 which is significantly less than what he carried in the minors which is a positive sign and could leave hope that he can avoid the sophomore slump.
Brian Bogusevic could be a surprise candidate to improve upon last season as he seemed to take a big step forward last season. While the warning signs of a sophomore slump are visible with his strikeout rate, walk rate, and BABIP all dipping below his minor league career totals, he has improved each year since switching to a position player in 2008. He is also coming off of a good showing in winter ball which has also gave fans a reason to be cautiously optimistic that he can avoid the slump this season.
Jose Altuve has done nothing but hit at every level he has played at thus far and was able to ride a great season in the minors from high-A ball all the way to the majors this past season. The biggest concern with Altuve’s rookie season was his plate discipline. Out of the 607 rookies sampled over the 10 year period Jose Altuve’s walk rate of 2.10% was tied for the 8th worse walk rate on the list.
All of these players improved upon their rookie walk rate; however they were all low enough that there wasn’t really any direction to go but up. Even though each player's walk rates improved the next season, none improved to the point of matching their minor league totals. Therefore it is quite possible that Altuve may have trouble obtaining his average minor league walk rate of 7.56% in 2012.
Since there has already been a lot of ink spilled over whether or not Jimmy Paredes would be able to match last season’s production, I figured it was appropriate to spend a little more time on him. The general consensus is that the batting average on balls in play that he maintained during the 2011 season was unsustainable and therefore he will experience a decline in his offensive production this upcoming season. With that in mind we will take a look at other players sampled that had a similarly high batting average on balls in play (BABIP), and see how that translated into their sophomore season’s performance.
There were a total of 20 other players during the 10 year time frame that had a BABIP higher than .375, which is similar to Paredes’ BABIP of .383 last season. The chart below lists the change between the 20 player’s rookie and sophomore seasons slash lines:
• For the players that carried a BABIP of .375 or higher the average drop in their slash line from their rookie season to their second season was a 53 point drop in batting average, a 49 point drop in on-base percentage, and a 73 point drop in their slugging percentage.
• Of the 20 players sampled only 2 (Jorge Cantu and David Freese) were able to avoid an offensive decline in their second season.
• The average batting average on balls in play dropped 74 points from one season to the next. The only 2 players that came close to sustaining their BABIP in their sophomore seasons were Shin-Soo Choo and John Rodriguez.
• Only 4 of these players had a higher strikeout percentage than Jimmy Paredes did during their rookie season, and only 2 players had a worse walk percentage.
Given the fact that so many players have struggled during their second season it’s unlikely that all four of the Astros rookies can escape the sophomore slump this season. There is also the chance that some of these players could become part of the 8% that did not play in the majors in the season directly after their rookie campaign. It’s possible that Chris Johnson realized that his time is running out to prove himself and forces his way onto the roster, Matt Downs has a great showing in spring and allows the Astros to give Altuve more seasoning, and maybe Brett Wallace overwhelms and forces Lee back to left and Martinez to AAA. The more likely scenario though is that Bogey, Martinez, and Altuve will all be trying to avoid the sophomore slump in 2012. Jimmy Paredes...To be continued.
If your interested in looking at the overall rookie and sophomore season stats generated from Fangraphs for this exercise then click the following link. Sophomore Slump Position Players
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First, good article.
Just for some context, here is my previous article on x-BABIP for the Astros’ hitters. Martinez’s actual BABIP was right on his x-BABIP and Altuve’s actual BABIP was below his x-BABIP. Altuve’s LD BA was exactly league average, while Martinez’s LD BA was below league average. All of those results are good signs and could portend some offensive improvement for Altuve and Martinez.
Both Bogusevic and Paredes had an actual performance that exceeded their BABIP. That could portend a precipitous drop in BA and OBP for both players. The fact that Paredes only had a .286/.320 BA/OBP with a BABIP that is 50 points higher than expected makes it hard to show offensive improvement even if he can increase his slugging, because a big drop in BA will put his OBP well below .300. Bogusevic has a better chance because the expected drop in BABIP is smaller and his OBP was reasonably high (.348). The projections for a decline by Bogusevic are based only partly on BABIP with part of the projection based on his minor league performance.
When you look at the overall picture, Luhnow’s effort to acquire more depth at all positions makes a lot of sense. I posted this recent statement by Luhnow in another thread, but it’s worth noting here too:
My comment about Lyles would be the same comment I’d have about a lot of these other young players, in that just because they made it up here last year doesn’t mean they’re guaranteed a spot this year. We have a different composition, we’ve got some various options, and that’s one of the reasons why we wanted to go out and get some depth.
If Jordan Lyles comes to Spring Training, just like any of the other young players, and has a great spring and proves that he deserves a spot in the rotation or the starting lineup, they’ll win those spots. We’re not going to hold those players back. Young players who have the possibility of being here for the next three-to-five years or longer, we’re going to make sure we manage their careers properly so that we’re not overexposing them early in their career.
At the same time, when they’re ready to contribute and ready to win games here, we’re going to allow them to do that. It goes back to the philosophy of giving ourselves options this year and not having to push guys too fast that maybe need some more seasoning and allowing those guys that are ready to go ahead and claim that role.
The last two paragraphs above are part of Luhnow’s quote, but somehow didn’t get included in the quotation highlighting.
I missed that quote from Luhnow. With the depth that the Astros have acquired this offseason it wouldn’t surprise me if several of the youngsters start the season in the minors. In Lyles case the Astros just have so many starting pitching options that it would make more sense to let him fine tune his game for half a season in the minors.
If Bogey does decline a little offensively then he could still probable be productive or even above average because of the defense that he provides. I tend to think that Altuve and Martinez should improve offensively. I would be surprised if Altuve didn’t start the season with the Astros, but if Luhnow was going to take a wait-and-see approach with the young guys and Altuve struggles in spring then maybe he let’s Downs and Marwin split time at second and let’s Altuve season. There’s also plenty of outfield options if Martinez were to do the same thing.
by conroestro on Feb 13, 2012 9:13 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Excellent article
Question: When you are talking about declining offensive performance, are you looking at a specific stat like WARo or wOBA, or just making a general comparison by glancing at all stats overall?
The way I looked at it was by comparing each player’s slash line, and seeing which year the player performed the best by comparing which batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage was the best. In the event that one of the three stats improved but the others didn’t etc… I looked at WAR and compared that. But for the most part I was comparing BA, OBP, and SLG and seeing which year was better.
by conroestro on Feb 13, 2012 9:58 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Beautiful line. Best I've read in a while...
Carlos Corporan doesn’t appear to have a shot at breaking camp with the club.
I LOVE THE ASTROS. Now lets win something!
Off-topic:
The A’s signed Cespedes.
And the AL West continues to get stronger… sigh.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
I kind of thought for sure that Cespedes was Marlins bound. The A’s definitely look like they are going to be tough in the future. Beane has been loading up on some prospects over there lately.
by conroestro on Feb 13, 2012 12:21 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Would you sign Mike Gonzalez and use him to close?
He was once very good and he still has his stuff. I would feel better with Gonzalez than anyone else on the roster right now, and he could be flipped for a prospect at the deadline if he holds his own
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
I wouldn’t mind seeing that happen at all. Veteran leadership in the pen is something the Astros don’t have alot of. It would be a low risk move if the price was right.
by conroestro on Feb 13, 2012 2:08 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
I have thought about that too. He is the best remaining relief pitcher is the best remaining free agent reliever. The knock on him is that some people believe that his growing platoon splits keep him from being a full time closer. His splits in 2011: .900 OPS vs. RHB and .574 OPS vs. LHB. I think it all comes down to what he is willing to sign for. (Warning: he is a Scott Boras client, which may account for why he hasn’t signed)
McTaggart's spring training preview
I’m sure you may have read Mctaggart’s latest article here, but I figured I’d link it here anyways.
The first thing that caught my attention is the list of people that are pretty safe bets to make the club. He only lists Myers, Rodriguez, and Norris as locks in the rotation, which I thought that Happ might be a safe bet as well.
He also lists Altuve and Martinez as good bets to be the starting LF and RF, but did not mention Bogusevic.
McTaggart also lists Marwin Gonzalez as an above average defensive shortstop, so that only adds to the uncertainty of his defense. I wasn’t aware of it, but it looks like MarGo had a pretty good showing in winter ball both defensively and offensively and also showed a little bit of power. It would be nice of he turned into something.
Given this article and previous comments it is starting to seem less likely that Luhnow is interested in trading Wandy.
Sorry forgot the link
by conroestro on Feb 13, 2012 2:05 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
With the acquistion of Livan Hernandez and Zach Duke, I wouldn’t put Happ in the category of safe bet for the rotation. I think he will have to pitch well, or at least better than the two veteran NRIs, to get the spot in the rotation. Well, probably, if he is in a tie situation, he would get the benefit of the doubt. It’s hard to figure out if he has any options left. If he doesn’t, and he didn’t make the rotation, I guess that would put him in the bullpen. But, in any event, I would think that last season’s performance doesn’t give him a free ride this spring.
I think Bogusevic has to win the starting job in RF in spring training. If he hits poorly and, say, Fernando Martinez is on fire in the spring, I could see Bogusevic relegated to the bench. Luhnow has made it clear that he wants spring training competition for each position, and Bogusevic has acknowledged that he has to compete to win the position in the spring. That said, I expeect Bogusevic to perform well enough this spring to at least be the LH half of a platoon in RF.
That’s the first mainstream list I’ve seen that has Cosart higher than Singleton. It seems like every list recognizes that Springer, Cosart, and Singleton are the top 3 talents in our system right now, but they all like to scramble the order.
by conroestro on Feb 13, 2012 4:23 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Our future division... Rangers farm just keeps producing.
3. Mike Trout, OF, Angels
4. Jurickson Profar, SS, Rangers
7. Jesus Montero, C, Mariners
14. Taijuan Walker, RHP, Mariners
35. Danny Hultzen, LHP, Mariners
36. Martin Perez, LHP, Rangers
39. Michael Choice, OF, Athletics
45. Mike Olt, 3B, Rangers
48. Jarred Cosart, RHP, Astros
49. George Springer, OF, Astros
50. Jarrod Parker, RHP, Athletics
59. James Paxton, LHP, Mariners
60. A.J. Cole, RHP, Athletics
64. Brad Peacock, RHP, Athletics
67. Jean Segura, SS, Angels
73. Jonathan Singleton, 1B, Astros
77. Neil Ramirez, RHP, Rangers
96. Derek Norris, C, Athletics
100. Grant Green, OF, Athletics
101. Jorge Alfaro, C, Rangers
Top 25
Angels- 1
Astros- 0
Athletics- 0
Mariners- 2
Rangers- 1
Top 50
Angels- 1
Astros- 2
Athletics- 2
Mariners- 3
Rangers- 3
Top 100-
Angels- 2
Astros- 3
Athletics- 6
Mariners- 4
Rangers- 5
Yeah, the AL West looks like its going to be a tough decision.
by conroestro on Feb 13, 2012 4:44 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
It's very fortunate we have the first overall pick
We can increase our numbers to at least 1 in the top 25, 3 in the top 50, and 4 in the top 100, if Singleton/Springer/Cosart maintain or increase stock.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
It would be nice if Cosart has another healthy season, and if he took a big step forward and the stats started matching the scouting reports. Hopefully Folty and DDJ can also take big steps forward this year.
by conroestro on Feb 13, 2012 8:59 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Villar and Santana
Are both at the point where one good season = surefire top 50 prospect.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Cosart, DeShields, Villar, Singleton, Springer, Santana, Foltynewicz, and whoever they take #1 all will be in the top 100 with good seasons. Of course, not all of those players will have good seasons, but I think Houston will have at least 4 top 100 prospects this time next year.
by Snake Diggity on Feb 14, 2012 10:14 AM CST up reply actions
The Astros definitely have some high upside guys, albeit they are a few years away from the majors.
by conroestro on Feb 14, 2012 10:19 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Right. It’s much more likely that the group I listed above (along with Lyles, Nash, Wates, Armstrong, Hauser, Bushue, Velasquez, etc.) will form the core of the next winning Astros’ team rather than the current crop of young players (Norris, JD Martinez, Altuve, etc.). But either way the team should steadily improve it’s record moving forward. That’s the only good thing about rock bottom; nowhere to go but up.
by Snake Diggity on Feb 14, 2012 11:46 AM CST up reply actions
I would also say that some of the Astros IFA signings could take a step forward in the next few years and be a boost to the system as well.
by conroestro on Feb 14, 2012 12:07 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Not Carlos Lee
Thinking is the hardest work there is, which is probably the reason why so few engage in it. - Henry Ford
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4 game series vs Rockies @ Coors Field
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Houston Astros
Monday, May 28, 2012, 2:10 PM CDT Wandy Rodriguez vs Juan Nicasio Sunny. Winds blowing in from center field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 70. |
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| Mon 05/28 | 7:10 PM CDT | |
| Wed 05/30 | 7:40 PM CDT | |
| Thu 05/31 | 7:40 PM CDT | |
NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
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27 | 20 | .574 | 0 | Won 2 |
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St. Louis
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26 | 22 | .541 | 1.5 | Won 1 |
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Pittsburgh
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23 | 24 | .489 | 4 | Won 3 |
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Houston
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22 | 25 | .468 | 5 | Lost 2 |
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Milwaukee
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19 | 28 | .404 | 8 | Lost 2 |
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Chicago
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15 | 32 | .319 | 12 | Lost 12 |
(updated 5.28.2012 at 12:18 AM CDT)
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