Houston Could Be Historically Bad Defensively In 2012
by David Coleman on Jan 31, 2012 6:01 AM CST
in Stat Geeky
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PrintThere's a question that's been nagging at me ever since Houston signed Jack Cust and Chris Snyder. It started when I read this article over at The Platoon Advantage on how historically bad a defense with Jack Cust and Carlos Lee could be.
What I thought at that point is, could Houston potentially have a below-average defensive player at every spot on the field in 2012?
I know, scary thought, right? But, it's not too far off. Walk with me through this lineup:
C Chris Snyder (-3 DRS)
1B Brett Wallace (-3.5 UZR)
2B Jose Altuve (-2.9 UZR)
SS Jed Lowrie (-4.9 UZR)
3B Jimmy Paredes (-2.3 UZR)
LF Carlos Lee (-10 UZR)
CF Jordan Schafer (-2.1 UZR)
RF Jack Cust (-7.7 UZR)
Now, I had to play around with Carlos Lee's UZR numbers in left, since he actually had a positive 2011 number there. But, honestly, is that predictive of how he'll do this season? The rest have very real sample size issues with those numbers, but most are not far off than past experience. Schafer could be above average, as could Altuve, but...
To find another Astros team that could be this bad, we have to go back to 1968. It was a different metric, but that team had none of its fielders who had at least 500 innings with a Total Zone rating above zero.
That's historically bad, and that could be where Houston is heading in 2012.
The myth about Moneyball early after it was published is that these new-wave baseball thinkers didn't care about defense. That defense couldn't be quantified so scouts would always be smarter than dumb statheads.
Yeah, turned out that was all sorts of wrong. Defense became a new inefficiency, which teams tried to exploit. Now, both on-base percentage and defense are pretty well measured on the market.
So, it's a bit ironic that the new Astros GM, someone who's tuned into advanced metrics and cares about all the things Houston teams have stood against in recent years, is assembling such a terrible, terrible defensive team.
Houston has flirted with this very thing for the past few years. Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn were all that held it back for the past few years, as Clint Barmes added a worthy defensive presence last season.
With the trades sending the first two away and Barmes leaving via free agency, Houston is left to scramble for a new lineup. Now, the one I quoted above is very likely not going to see the light of day by Brad Mills. Millsy cares too much about that defense to trot that group out. So, what are some other options? How about this Mills special?
C Humberto Quintero - (2 DRS)
1B Carlos Lee - (2.9 UZR)
2B Matt Downs - (-2.2 UZR)
SS Jed Lowrie - (-4.9 UZR)
3B Chris Johnson (-14.5 UZR)
LF J.D. Martinez - (8 UZR)
CF Jason Bourgeois (-1.1 UZR)
RF Brian Bogusevic (10.4 UZR)
The infield could be pretty bad defensively, depending on how Lowrie does at short. However, the outfield has potential to be very good and Q is a defense-first guy. So, this group would be pretty decent and as apocalyptic as the '68 team.
Other options? Move Lowrie to third, where his UZR is around 1.3 and start Marwin Gonzalez at short. It's not ideal, but it'd potentially put two good defenders on the left side of the infield (if reports of Gonzalez are accurate). The Astros could also put Fernando Martinez in right, but he's at -0.5 UZR at that position in about 59 innings. So, you know, he could be very bad or decent, but lean towards bad.
Jason Castro could be very good defensively once he comes back, and we've already talked about Altuve. Paredes also flashed good defensive skills, but needs refinement.
Most likely, the Astros will have a Carlos Lee/Brett Wallace duo at first with J.D. Martinez and Brian Bogusevic in the outfield. Basically, they'll mix the first and second lineups I threw out there, leaving them probably too good to be as bad as the '68 team.
There's certainly a lot we don't know about how the Astros defensive lineup will shake out, but I'm kind of hoping for a historically bad defense. Not that it'd be any fun to watch, but it'd make for fun game threads, no?
Some other random notes that I came up with looking through FanGraphs' archives:
2007 - Only one player above 0.5 UZR (Luke Scott) with Craig Biggio at second and Brad Ausmus at catcher pretty bad defensively, but also had a very good Adam Everett at short
2002- None over the 3.1 UZR earned by Jeff Bagwell
2000 - Only Hidalgo had a TZ over 0
1978 - Only Bob Watson had TZ over 0
1972 - Two at 2 (Cesar Cedeno, Doug Rader), none other over 0
1969 - Only Johnny Edwards (3) over 0
1968 - No one over 0, Jimmy Wynn highest at 0 but in 500 innings in LF
1965 - No one over 0, Wynn again at 0 but in 1,300 innings in CF
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Altuve, Paredes, Schafer
I don’t think we have enough of a sample size on Altuve, Paredes, or Schafer to determine where they will stand as defenders. In the case of Altuve and Schafer I feel confident that they are at least average for their positions from watching them play. Not sure about Paredes yet. He has good defensive potential but I don’t know if he has the skills/instincts to reach it next season.
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DRS is a poor measure of catcher defense. (Of course, measuring catcher defense has been a problem for some time.) My recollection is that it uses Catcher ERA, which is a questionable metric. The most advanced metrics, which include pitch framing in addition to other defensive skills, indicate that both Quintero and Chris Snyder are comparable and above average on defense. Luhnow indicated that he views Snyder as a good defender when he signed him.
I agree with you that there is no way that Cust gets regular playing time in RF. If he gets more than occasional playing time, I think he will spend time at 1st base and LF.
I don’t know of any reason to believe that Marwin Gonzalez’s defense is better than Lowrie’s at shortstop. The scouting reports are mixed on Gonzalez’s fielding. Total Zone is only available through 2009, and in three available minor league seasons, Gonzalez is -11 at shortstop.
I agree with OremLK’s comments on the young guys and sample size. My guess is that UZR in 2011 understates the defense of Altuve, Paredes, and Shafer, but overstates the defense of Bogusevic and Martinez. Carlos Lee’s LF defense in 2011 may see some regression, but it could stay positive to neutral. I see no reason why Carlos Lee’s 1b defense won’t improve next year: it was Lee’s first time playing a lot at 1b since his minor league days.
It’s worth noting that DRS shows Snyder at +13 over his career and TZ has him at +7 for the same time period. If a metric uses catcher ERA as part of the catcher defense calculation, I would think that it would be a good idea to use a lot of seasons (in order to even out the pitcher quality influence).
My perception is that there’s a lot of variance between the different defensive metrics, which makes me think that they are useful for providing a range but not so useful as an exact comparison. So, I think we can only paint players in a range of how good they are defensively at each position, and this is where I think Houston will end up:
Pos Player Range
C Snyder Above average
1B Lee Average
2B Altuve Average
SS Lowrie Below Average
3B Paredes Below Average
RF Bogusevic Above Average
CF Schafer Average
LF Martinez Average
OF Cust Below Average
OF Bourgeois Above Average
IF Downs Below Average
IF Gonzalez Average
C Quintero Above Average
With such an inexperienced and injury-prone team, it’s hard to predict and the range is wider. Altuve, Paredes, and Schafer have a chance to be good defenders. I think overall the team will be average defensively.
Paredes is below average?
Not sure about that one.
"Hakeem couldn't kick your ass cuz you were too
close kissin his!"- Sir Charles to Kenny Smith.
by bone31crusher on Jan 31, 2012 10:43 PM CST up reply actions
I don’t think even Mills would be dumb enough to put Lee and Cust in the same outfield.
Question: What were the scouting reports on (JD) Martinez’s defense in the minors?
Here is an example from Mike Newman’s scouting report (Scouting the Sally) on J.D. when he was in the S. Atlantic League:
Martinez needing to be hidden on defense is more of an accepted fact rather than speculation at this point. … In game action, he simply does not move well and nothing in his defensive game stood out as particularly positive. Martinez is simply a bat first prospect who will have to hit quite a bit to succeed.
That’s pretty typical of the minor league scouting reports on his defense. Having said that, Martinez seemed to be a much better fielder than I expected when he played LF in MMP. Perhaps this is an artifact of the short LF at MMP, as well as opponents testing Martinez’s arm. Maybe Martinez’s weaknesses can be hidden in MMP’s LF, much like Lee’s.
I choose to look at the bright side
As bad as the Astros’ defense will be, it will not be nearly as apocalyptically bad as the Detroit Tigers’ defense.
by CRPerry13 on Jan 31, 2012 10:18 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
That's gonna be unbearable.
I LOVE THE ASTROS. Now lets win something!
by ccislanders on Jan 31, 2012 12:34 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Why would you have Cust and Lee starting in the outfield? There is no way that thats the starting lineup(Barring a lot of injuries). Martinez will start, and Bougesevic will probably start in right field. Cust most likely will come off the bench. I agree with Orem there is no reason to think Schafer and Altuve will be below average defenders. Parades I think will be average, he has a good arm and quick feet, good tools for a 3B. And Wallace probably starts in AAA. Snyder is a good game caller, it is hard to look at statistics to define a catchers ability. Plus Quintero will probably get some decent time, or Castro both are above average defenders at a defensive postition. We will not have a historically bad defense, to have that you would have to have numerous players in poor shape, we have one that starts Lee.
Cust will be the starting RF in 2012
Almost undoubtedly. He has a major league track record, he takes a lot of walks, and his defense isn’t as bad as people think it is. It’s solidly average to slightly below average. Frankly, his RF defense is no worse than Pence’s was in 2011.
I didn’t get that impression from the Cust signing. Cust as the starting rightfielder wouldn’t upset me other than the fact that I think Bogusevic deserves a chance to start. Cut’s defensive woes could be overstated, but I just though he would be the utility bat off the bench guy. The price is right.
by conroestro on Jan 31, 2012 3:45 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Frankly, his RF defense is no worse than Pence’s was in 2011.
This can’t be right, and I’m not even a fan of Pence’s defense. Cust has also only played 16 defensive games the last 2 seasons. For his career, which is only about a season and third worth of defensive play, he’s -29 in total zone.
Astros sign Livan Hernandez
Per MLBTR. How about an opening day rotation of Norris, Happ, Livan, Duke, and Harrell. Yuck. I sense some pending Wandy/Myers trades.
I love the move, actually.
If Hernandez or Duke have a good 1st half, they could net us some prospects. Very low-risk signings.
"Hakeem couldn't kick your ass cuz you were too
close kissin his!"- Sir Charles to Kenny Smith.
by bone31crusher on Jan 31, 2012 10:40 PM CST up reply actions
The past couple "average-to-slightly-above-average" defensive signings...
i.e. Pedro Feliz & Bill Hall haven’t exactly worked out…
Basically what I’m saying is let’s assume the worst about what’s going to happen :D
I'm not concerned about our defense.
J.D. is certainly not good in left, but he’s got a decent arm and OK mobility, so he won’t be a liability like El Caballo was.
Altuve actually made some pretty good plays at second. Didn’t really see him make a whole lot of mistakes. Should be average defender at worst.
Paredes, defensively speaking, is like Jonathan Villar. Both are great athletes, both have great range, and both have strong arms. However, they’re not fundamentally sound. They both make those small little errors that will allow a baseunner on 1st from time to time. Villar’s defensive potential is well documented, but I think Paredes could become more than just a decent defender at third. His physical abilities could make him a great defender at third.
Bogey will be solid in right, but I’m sure Cust won’t be, at all.
Wallace, assuming he plays, is not a bad defender from what I saw from last year. He made some pretty athletic plays, which was a pleasant surprise.
Castro has gold glove potential. His arm is a damn rocket, and if he gets 100% healthy, he should be very good in all other defensive areas.
I’m not sure how good or bad Lowrie is, but I hope he’s at least decent. If he’s mediocre, I’m sure his bat will make up for it.
As for Schafer, he looked good in center. He’s got good range, and a pretty good arm. Should be a solid defender.
To recap, only Cust and Lee, IMO, are below average defenders. I don’t think we’ll be “historically” bad.
"Hakeem couldn't kick your ass cuz you were too
close kissin his!"- Sir Charles to Kenny Smith.
defense for astros 2012
cf…shaefer is very good defensively…..ss…lowrey is very good…. c snyder is one of best defensive catchers….paredes is ok…. altuve altuve ?? downs should be at 2b.. traDE Altuve..or he goes to aaa… swings at anything and everything.. range defensively is short…. wallace ?? he seems ok at 1b… bogusevic has a cannon arm…good athlete… lf ?? a question…clee is better defensively than people think…magnus
l hernandez
we dont need him… we have 7 or 8 prospects for starting pitching….our starting pitching is going to be good….maybe l hernandez can wk in bullpen…magnus
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Houston Astros
Monday, May 28, 2012, 2:10 PM CDT Wandy Rodriguez vs Juan Nicasio Sunny. Winds blowing in from center field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 70. |
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
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27 | 20 | .574 | 0 | Won 2 |
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St. Louis
|
26 | 22 | .541 | 1.5 | Won 1 |
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Pittsburgh
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23 | 24 | .489 | 4 | Won 3 |
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Houston
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22 | 25 | .468 | 5 | Lost 2 |
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Milwaukee
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19 | 28 | .404 | 8 | Lost 2 |
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Chicago
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15 | 32 | .319 | 12 | Lost 12 |
(updated 5.28.2012 at 12:18 AM CDT)
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