Reading recent post about future lineups and possible rotations It got me wondering will we be contenders by 2015, the year that I have heard a lot of experts say should be our first real shot at contention. Unfortunately my gut tells me no. There will be three ways into the playoffs then. Either win your division or one of the two wild card spots.
By then I do not believe that the Rangers will be contenders. I know that they have a great roster by they have a real problem. They can not keep talent, Dallas may not be a great place to live, maybe The Rangers are not good at selling their team to players, but whatever the reason The Rangers have lost two aces to free agency in the last two years. They did bring in Beltre but by 2015 he will be old as will Hamiltion and Young. They have a great team but I think that by then they will not be as good(especially if they continue to hire people like Pupura.)
The Mariners and Athletics are questionalbe. The Mariners have great Pitchers all ready and by then will be in their Prime. The Athletics just got some solid talent for Gio. However I do belive the Mariners and Athletics will not be much better than they are now. Oakland lacks a great farm system, and most of their current players are average at best. The Mariners will have 3 solid pitchers and in the field they will have Franklin Gutierrez and Justin Smoak but besides that no one really stands out to me.
The reason I do not believe we will win our division then is because of the Halos. They will have Pujols in one of his most likely last super productive years, in their rotation they will have C.J. Wilson and Weaver. Plus they will have Morales as DH. A lot of their team is up in age now, but due to the amount of money already invested they will give 1 or 2 year contracts to free agents that they feel they need. And what player doesn't want to play on the west coast with Albert Pujols. Because of the Halos I do not think we will make the playoffs.
The Wild Card
We all know that it is going to be problematic to win the wildcard in the AL. Of course the Red Sox and Yankees will be spendig money to stay in the playoffs, and the Rays may very well be the best team in the AL by then with all of their young talent. I do not think that Baltimore will be contending but they do seem Hell bent on spending money to get good players right now.
In the AL Central I believe the white sox due to the inability to decide what to do now will be rebuilding then.(sound familiar) The Twins will probably be contending for a wild card spot. A lof of their future depends on Mauer, even if he is healty I believe the stros will be better than the Twins by then. I do not see the Royals making any large strides from now until 2015, if they get lucky they finsh ahead of the White Sox. That means the Indians win the central, I think by a large margin so it is only important if we are better than the Twins.
It is hard to predict what will happen 3 seasons from now, but unless the Astros' farm system contains a couple of super stars we will not be in the playoffs by 2015..