Will We Be Contenders By 2015

by Astro#1fan on Jan 3, 2012 11:05 PM CST

Reading recent post about future lineups and possible rotations It got me wondering will we be contenders by 2015, the year that I have heard a lot of experts say should be our first real shot at contention. Unfortunately my gut tells me no. There will be three ways into the playoffs then. Either win your division or one of the two wild card spots.

Our Division

By then I do not believe that the Rangers will be contenders. I know that they have a great roster by they have a real problem. They can not keep talent, Dallas may not be a great place to live, maybe The Rangers are not good at selling their team to players, but whatever the reason The Rangers have lost two aces to free agency in the last two years. They did bring in Beltre but by 2015 he will be old as will Hamiltion and Young. They have a great team but I think that by then they will not be as good(especially if they continue to hire people like Pupura.)

The Mariners and Athletics are questionalbe. The Mariners have great Pitchers all ready and by then will be in their Prime. The Athletics just got some solid talent for Gio. However I do belive the Mariners and Athletics will not be much better than they are now. Oakland lacks a great farm system, and most of their current players are average at best. The Mariners will have 3 solid pitchers and in the field they will have Franklin Gutierrez and Justin Smoak but besides that no one really stands out to me.

The reason I do not believe we will win our division then is because of the Halos. They will have Pujols in one of his most likely last super productive years, in their rotation they will have C.J. Wilson and Weaver. Plus they will have Morales as DH. A lot of their team is up in age now, but due to the amount of money already invested they will give 1 or 2 year contracts to free agents that they feel they need. And what player doesn't want to play on the west coast with Albert Pujols. Because of the Halos I do not think we will make the playoffs.

The Wild Card

We all know that it is going to be problematic to win the wildcard in the AL. Of course the Red Sox and Yankees will be spendig money to stay in the playoffs, and the Rays may very well be the best team in the AL by then with all of their young talent. I do not think that Baltimore will be contending but they do seem Hell bent on spending money to get good players right now.

In the AL Central I believe the white sox due to the inability to decide what to do now will be rebuilding then.(sound familiar) The Twins will probably be contending for a wild card spot. A lof of their future depends on Mauer, even if he is healty I believe the stros will be better than the Twins by then. I do not see the Royals making any large strides from now until 2015, if they get lucky they finsh ahead of the White Sox. That means the Indians win the central, I think by a large margin so it is only important if we are better than the Twins.

It is hard to predict what will happen 3 seasons from now, but unless the Astros' farm system contains a couple of super stars we will not be in the playoffs by 2015..

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Comments

I would like to think that the Rangers will be out of contention in 2015, but you haven’t convinced me. Lots of changes can occur in 3 years, but for now my best assumption is that the Rangers will continue to be in contention for the AL West.

I think you are underselling the Mariners too. Their farm system is loaded. And you omitted a mention of Dustin Ackley, who had a good rookie season and may well be a future perennial all star at 2d base. Again, no telling if they can put it all together in that time frame, but they are capable of a good sized budget.

Can the Angels be the Yankees of the West coast? Their payroll will be very top heavy going into the future. And they continually make unproductive spending decisions, like Wells. But they seem to be able to absorb those bad decisions so far.

Moving to the AL will make it more difficult for the Astros to make the playoffs. Whether that means they can’t be competitive in 2014 or 2015, I don’t know. A lot will depend on getting some luck with drafted player, as well as ownership’s willingness to make some free agent signings at that point.

by clack on Jan 4, 2012 9:02 AM CST reply actions

I did not rule the rangers out by 2015. It really depends on how most of their teams ages. I guess I hope that by then our talent is better than theirs, but you are right there is no way we can just disregaurd the Rangers then.
Ackley i missed. you are right this guy is monster, a 2.5 WAR through 1/3rd of a season. That woudl give them 2 or 3 all stars in the field and 3 great young pitchers. If their pitchers produce like they are expected to they will probably be better than us. depends on Cossart and Lyles.
As for Angles they will unload some of their current payroll burden like Wells and Abreu by then. Also I would Imigane their money is spent wisely from now until Albert’s contract is up. They can not afford(I would imagine) to make more than a few bad signings

by Astro#1fan on Jan 4, 2012 11:24 AM CST up reply actions

I find it very unlikely the Astros will be in a playoff hunt before 2017. There just aren’t enough top prospects (I’m talking 5-star guys), and there aren’t the resources to build around trades or free agents.

The Angels will be monsters for years to come, and the A’s now have one of the strongest farm systems in baseball, after trading everything including the kitchen sink. They also might be in San Jose by then, and a new stadium will bring new revenue that can be pushed into the team.

The Rangers front office is pretty smart too, and they’ve got a strong farm system. As their older guys age, they’ll be replaced via trade or youth.

by CRPerry13 on Jan 4, 2012 9:17 AM CST reply actions

I’m of the opinion that a team is never more than 3 years away from winning. Will Houston be favored to win the World Series in 2015? Highly unlikely. But should they be expected to win more games than they lose in 2015? Definitely. The farm system is middle of the pack as of now. After 2012 the payroll will be completely stripped down. So add in 3 years of prospect development, high draft picks, and improved GM/ownership decisions, and yes, I expect the Astros to field a winning team in 2015. I expect 65+ wins this season. I expect a fairly drastic improvement in 2013 as more prospects find their way and the GM adds more pieces with added payroll flexibility, so 2013 should yield 75 wins. That means 2014 should bring a season where Houston at worst hovers around .500, opening the door for a winning season in 2015.

by Snake Diggity on Jan 4, 2012 12:00 PM CST reply actions

I don’t get how you expect that stuff, considering the Astros will be fielding inferior players in 2012 and 2013 than they did in 2011, and by a fair margin.

Please elaborate?

by CRPerry13 on Jan 4, 2012 1:52 PM CST up reply actions

I think what he (and most astros fans) expects (hopes)

Is the see JA Happ return to the pitcher he was in 2009-2010 getting his ERA back down closer his career average of 4.00. And see a better Brett Wallace. Also hopeful that Bud and Lyles continue to grow.

by lawson3 on Jan 4, 2012 3:28 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

The Astros W/L record last year fell below what their talent level was. Even the worst teams, given average luck, will win 60 games. You could probably count on 1 hand the number of teams statistically projected to lose 100 games prior to the season. When it happens, it’s almost always a result of a combination of lack of talent and bad luck.

by Snake Diggity on Jan 4, 2012 3:42 PM CST up reply actions

That’s true. The Astros’ pythag was 7 games better than the actual record in 2011. All else equal, I would expect the Astros to have an improved record next season. But 2011 had 1/2 season of Pence and Bourn, who won’t be here at all in 2012. Also, if Wandy and/or Myers are traded that also will make the 2012 talent worse. So, I see it as two trends in opposite directions: regression toward a better record due to better luck vs. lower overall talent in 2012.

by clack on Jan 4, 2012 3:48 PM CST up reply actions

Right. If Wandy and/or Myers is traded, my expectations will lower from 65 to 60. But for now I anticipate both players being there April 1st.

by Snake Diggity on Jan 4, 2012 3:50 PM CST up reply actions

2015 Lineup and Starting Rotation

Can you tell me you would not get excited about this lineup. Obviously Villar could compete against Lowrie and not sure if we could get an upgrade in the draft for 3B but I like this team. The order could definitely be tweaked depending on which players would develop more power or OBP, ex. Springer might be more geared as a middle of the order hitter versus leadoff. Rotation looks good as well, I gambled that Appel would be selected 1st overall in 2012, but dang we have some power arms.

1 – Springer ® CF
2 – Lowrie (S) SS
3 – Singleton (L) 1B
4 – Martinez ® DH
5 – Ovendo (L) RF
6 – Santana ® LF
7 – Castro (L) C
8 – Paredes (S) 3B
9 – Altuve ® 2B

Norris ® SP1
Lyles ® SP2
Cosart ® SP3
Appel ® SP4
Clemons ® SP5

Thoughts?

by blazemule on Jan 4, 2012 3:15 PM CST reply actions

Looks good, but I think Altuve is likely to be a better #2 hitter than Lowrie. Here’s mine:

Lineup:

Springer CF
Altuve 2B
Singleton 1B
Santana RF
Martinez LF
Lowrie SS
Paredes 3B
Castro C

Bench: Schafer, Villar, C. Wallace, Mier, Wates
Others in mix: B. Wallace, Bogusevic, Shuck, Downs, Wikoff, Goebbert, Hinze, Meyer, Kvasnicka, DeShields, Nash, Austin, Meredith

Rotation: Cosart, Appel*, Lyles, Norris, Oberholtzer
Bullpen: Foltynewicz, Keuchel, Cruz, Abreu, Lopez, Carpenter, Clemens
Others in mix: Escalona, FRod, Weiland, Aneury, Buchanan, Seaton, Stoffel, Zeid, Armstrong, Tropeano, Bushue, Chowning, De Leon, Houser, Alaniz, Shirley, Diaz, Cole

by Snake Diggity on Jan 4, 2012 3:49 PM CST up reply actions

Snake, who would your DH be?

Altuve could be a better hitter than Lowrie, I just don’t like his free swinging that high in the lineup. I think if Villar is up by then he could be the leadoff hitter and move Springer to 2nd.

by blazemule on Jan 4, 2012 4:14 PM CST up reply actions

From the roster I projected above, I’d have Martinez DH and move Wates to LF. But it’s also plausible that Brett Wallace finds his stroke, making him the DH and moving either Schafer or Wates off the roster.

by Snake Diggity on Jan 5, 2012 9:49 AM CST up reply actions

I would project

C- Castro
1B-Singleton
2B-Altuve
3B-Pardes
SS-Mier(Lowrie could start)
LF-Delino Deshields Jr.
RF-Martinez
CF-Springer
DH-Wallace

P1-Lyles
P2-Cosart
P3-Norris
P4-Oberholtzer
P5-Weiland(I think it is too hard to predict who your 5th starter will be 3 years from now)

by Astro#1fan on Jan 4, 2012 3:54 PM CST up reply actions

If you go with this lineup I would put Deshields in CF and Martinez in LF and Springer in RF. Martinez is a very below average OF and probably should DH but with Wallace and Singleton both playing he may have to play LF. Deshields does not have the power to waste a LF spot on, his value is speed and CF, 2B are the two spots for that. I don’t have a lot of faith in DeShields and Mier but maybe they will prove me wrong.

I definitely want to see how Wallace plays out in the next few years.

by blazemule on Jan 4, 2012 4:19 PM CST up reply actions

I would not get excited about that lineup

Sorry, I just don’t see any superstar-level hitters or pitchers on that entire roster, with the possible exception of Springer and Singleton. Methinks Astros fans have an unreasonably high expectation of some very average major league prospects.

by CRPerry13 on Jan 4, 2012 3:55 PM CST up reply actions

Nah. Springer, Singleton, and Santana are all top 100 type prospects with as high a ceiling as anyone. Will all 3 be all-stars? No. But I think all 3 will reach the majors and at least 1 will be an impact player. Not to mention that it’s very likely that by 2015 Houston’s payroll will be much higher and they will be able to add free agents to plug the gaps.

by Snake Diggity on Jan 4, 2012 4:10 PM CST up reply actions

I agree with that.

by blazemule on Jan 4, 2012 4:19 PM CST up reply actions

I agree with everything you say

However, 1 all star will not make a World Series or even playoff contender. Not even close.

by CRPerry13 on Jan 4, 2012 5:53 PM CST up reply actions

Agree but that lineup in 2015 will cost less than $40M. That leaves anywhere from $20M-$80M to spend on free agents to fill the gaps.

by Snake Diggity on Jan 5, 2012 3:05 PM CST up reply actions

Yes but when your gaps are "The Lineup" and "The Rotation", that's not enough money.

by CRPerry13 on Jan 5, 2012 4:24 PM CST up reply actions

That’s probably enough to get an Ace and another all star and maybe another good piece. Those holes can get filled a little quicker than we’d think sometimes. It really does come down to getting lucky on some of the fringe guys. Let’s say that a couple of the them become good, that changes things. Hopefully, by that time, we might have enough prospects to use them for trades. I’ll say that the margin of error is still razor thin.

by MadMartygan on Jan 5, 2012 4:35 PM CST up reply actions

LOL CRPerry13

by Astro#1fan on Jan 5, 2012 7:01 PM CST up reply actions

But we will not really have a gap in the rotation. I mean we will have Cossart and Lyles. Both top prospects, Cossart currently #31 and Lyles was around there last year. Plus if we draft Appel this year that will give us 3 solid pitchers in 2015. Plus we will have Bud Norris who would probably will be in the best year or two of his career and Brett Oberholtzer or Mike Foltynewicz. $10million should make our rotation one of the better ones out there.

In our line up there will not be much power really only Singleton and Springer. So I believe the majority of money should go to a power hitting DH or corner OF

by Astro#1fan on Jan 5, 2012 7:14 PM CST up reply actions

Ehh, unless Altuve can have a better eye when batting I think Deshields will be 2B here’s my outlook:

C: Castro
1B: Singleton
2B: Deshields Jr.
3B: Paredes or Lowrie
SS: Villar
LF: Santana
CF: Springer
RF: Ovando
DH: Martinez

Now with this lineup how many homeruns do ya’ll project each one of these guys hitting in a season?

by astros21 on Jan 4, 2012 5:45 PM CST up reply actions

Castro will average 8-10 HRs a year, with a peak of 12-15.
Singleton has a long way to develop but could average 25 HRs with 35 HR potential.
DeShields appears to have double digit HR power and could have a peak near 20.
Paredes’ power profile is similar to DeShields.
Villar has slightly less power than Paredes/DeShields, but still has double digit potential.
Santana should average 15-20/yr if he is able to cut down his K’s.
Springer should see 20+ HRs, with 30+ potential.
Ovando is much like Santana, just further away.
Martinez will hit 15-20 HR/yr, I doubt he’ll ever hit more than 25.

by Snake Diggity on Jan 5, 2012 9:53 AM CST up reply actions

All I have to say is

In Lunhow I trust.

I REALLY like what he’s done so far, and I think he is a MAJOR reason the Cards won it all this past year (I mean other than the players actually playing the game). It may not be a splashy or sexy lineup, but I think he can get the job done in under 5 years.

2015 sounds about right.

by YohannDookeyblue on Jan 5, 2012 4:29 AM CST reply actions

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