Cuban Import?

by jmike on Jan 26, 2012 10:53 AM CST

Yoenis Cespedes has recently been declared a free agent. We've already seen so-called "surprise" teams land Albert Pujols (Angels) and Prince Fielder (Tigers) this offseason, could a surprise team sign Yoenis Cespedes? He's been linked to the Marlins, Yankees, Blue Jays among others, but should the Astros make a run at him?

At first brush, Houston seems like an illogical destination for such a player. But Cespedes is only 26 and will still be in his prime in 2014 and 2015 when the Astros should be much improved. Also, Houston will have over $20 million coming off the books after 2012 once the contracts of Carlos Lee and Brandon Lyon expire. Additionally, Houston will be needing an extra hitter starting next year with the impending move to the junior circuit.

I looked back at some recent Cuban free agents, and their initial contracts are not as extreme as you might imagine. Dayan Viciedo agreed to a four year $10M deal with the Chicago White Sox in December 2008 (with a $4M signing bonus). In January 2010, Aroldis Chapman agreed to a a six year $30.25 deal (with a $16M signing bonus distributed over time). Before the 2008 season, Alexei Ramirez signed a 4-year $6.4M deal. Going back a while, Jose Contreras initially signed a 4-year $32 million contract.

Looking at those past signings it's interesting to see a team like the Reds sneak in there. Now, I don't think the Astros should go crazy. But would a 5-year $30 million deal be out of the question? It's a risky play for sure, but could instantly add a power bat in his prime if it works out. Also, what would the offseason be without rumors and speculation?

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i would much prefer jorge soler

19. Would cost a lot less. Some say has higher upside and would be more practical as far as rebuilding for the future.

by lawson3 on Jan 26, 2012 11:27 AM CST via mobile reply actions 1 recs

Yeah. I’d go after Soler.

by MadMartygan on Jan 26, 2012 1:22 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

Same

Soler makes more sense in the Astros’ current situation. By the time we are contenders Cespedes will probably be around age 30. I’m also not sure how good Cespedes will be in the majors.

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by OremLK on Jan 26, 2012 2:11 PM CST up reply actions

Yeah, Soler could be a good option as well. I disagree that the Astros won’t be contenders for 5 years though. Have to hope that in 2-3 years they’d be back to at least contending for the second wild card.

by jmike on Jan 26, 2012 7:59 PM CST up reply actions

I think we can be around .500 in '14

Maybe 2013 if we are extremely fortunate with our young players and prospects. I figure the offseason after the team shows it can be .500 on the backs of its young players, Crane will consider opening up the payroll to get some free agents and push us over the top. So if we don’t get to that point till ’14, which seems likely to me, that would put our window around 2015 and a few years following. Cespedes is already 26 and I believe will be age 30 for the 2015 season.

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by OremLK on Jan 26, 2012 11:18 PM CST up reply actions

i think they could contend in the time frame you are talking about

But they need to start heading in that direction before spending that kind of money on a mlb contract for a 26 year old (or around that age) import. In two years if we have a solid foundation for the future but just have a few holes to fill then you take a chance on a guy like cepedes. There will always be a stud import from cuba, japan, or the DR that we could bid on, and each one more hyped than the last. After a 100 loss season I think you got to pass on this one and wait for the next.

by lawson3 on Jan 26, 2012 11:26 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

dont get me wrong if the astros did go crazy and signed him

Even if I don’t get the practicality of it, I would enjoy the see what he brings to the team for better or worse. I would be the first to buy a custom CESPEDES jersey with the words “YU WHO?” written in parenthesis below his name.

by lawson3 on Jan 26, 2012 11:35 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

I don’t know, It’s probably worth consideration, at least. But there are considerable differences of opinon on how good he will be. This partly has to do with comparing Cuban baseball leagues to the majors, and how you convert the performance from one to the other. I doubt that a team like the Astros would want to spend that much money on Cespedes unless they think he will become a star hitter. I don’t think there is much questioning of his ability to hit in the major leagues, but rather whether he will be just an average hitter or a really good hitter. So, I guess it may depend on how the Astros value him.

by clack on Jan 26, 2012 11:58 AM CST reply actions

Go after the kid

I think you go after Jorge Soler. He’s 19 which means you get longer to develop him. If Cespedes is a flop your options are limited. With a younger player you have more opportunity and time to teach.

Good post jmike

by AstrosBill on Jan 26, 2012 4:01 PM CST reply actions

IF Luhnow and Co think he can be a starter in CF in MLB this year and IF they think he will be a star long term and IF he will sign for 6yr/$30M, then yes, do it. But the odds are heavily against it.

by Snake Diggity on Jan 26, 2012 4:04 PM CST reply actions

And if he’s really 26

by Subber10 on Jan 26, 2012 5:20 PM CST up reply actions

I agree.

I’m always afraid of this kinda stuff.

I LOVE THE ASTROS. Now lets win something!

by ccislanders on Jan 26, 2012 10:46 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

Yeah I know, it’s not very realistic. Would be interesting though.

by jmike on Jan 26, 2012 7:56 PM CST up reply actions

Soler.

Cespedes seems to be way to big of a risk. 5 things I’m afraid of: Performance in MLB, $, actual age, effort and hype. I fear he’s overhyped by a wide margin of his actual skill.

I LOVE THE ASTROS. Now lets win something!

by ccislanders on Jan 26, 2012 10:51 PM CST via mobile reply actions

His performance in the World cup fears me, although it's defiinitely a small sample size, but still nerve wracking.

I LOVE THE ASTROS. Now lets win something!

by ccislanders on Jan 26, 2012 10:55 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

Well, now that I look it up, it was in '09. Still, though.

I LOVE THE ASTROS. Now lets win something!

by ccislanders on Jan 26, 2012 10:59 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

Both Soler and Cespedes will likely be out of the Astros price range

Giving 20 million to a 19 year old is something that would give me pause.

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by Patrick Harrel on Jan 27, 2012 1:08 PM CST reply actions

I doubt Soler will command $20M

Probably closer to 10.

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by OremLK on Jan 27, 2012 1:31 PM CST up reply actions

If I was in the position of any GM in baseball I would attempt to sign as many international players this year as humanly possible! With the new CBA going into affect, international signings will be limited to a hard cap. I say go for it now! Sign Soler and someone like Concepcion at the very least. The best way to improve the farm right now and for the future is acquire international talent as soon as possible. There will also be a cap on next year’s amateur draft. It’s going to be significantly more difficult for a team like the Astros to build up a system when these rules come into affect. Two big international names will infuse some much needed talent.

by Stoiber on Feb 1, 2012 12:37 AM CST reply actions

International signings have to occur before the end of June in order to avoid the cap. All the teams are in the same boat; so that should give a guy like Soler a lot of leverage to up his price.

by clack on Feb 1, 2012 2:22 AM CST up reply actions

The more I think about it

The more I honestly would like signing both Cespedes and Soler, if Luhnow can talk Crane into it. You’re going to have to overpay for both, but the teams which turn things around fastest are the ones who overpay on young guys with star potential… and it’s our last chance to do so with international free agents.

I don’t think it will happen, but I would be a happy fan if it did.

Well, I’ll add a caveat. I would like signing Cespedes if he agrees to a six year deal. He’s only worth the cost if we still have him at (if he pans out) a good price in 2014-17 to help lead a young team.

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by OremLK on Feb 2, 2012 3:02 AM CST reply actions

i would prefer soler

But the astros probably aren’t making any big FA signings next year either and with so much $ coming off the books next year they could sign him to backloaded deal and it could make sense.

by lawson3 on Feb 2, 2012 6:28 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

Yeah, it would have to be a long term deal. Makes no sense for 2012 or 2013 other than maybe public relations.

by jmike on Feb 4, 2012 3:20 PM CST up reply actions

Cubs signed Concepcion.

by MadMartygan on Feb 2, 2012 6:46 PM CST reply actions

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/02/cubs-sign-gerardo-concepcion.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter I think Goldstein described him as a back of the rotation starter. 7 million bucks for that sounds terrible.

by MadMartygan on Feb 2, 2012 8:31 PM CST up reply actions

There is divided opinion, with some teams’ scouts viewing him with more projectability into a higher rated starting pitcher. Goldstein tweeted that he would rate him the Cubs’ 6th best prospect right now. I can see that a tall 18 year old lefty with a low 90’s fastball could have some projection based on filling out and getting minor league coaching.

by clack on Feb 3, 2012 8:09 AM CST up reply actions

I’m not that familiar with Concepcion, but I can see why some of the scouting reports are for the higher level. Scouting Book says his slider is already a plus pitch and his other two breaking pitches have the potential to be devastating. He has poor mechanics for his 92 – 94 FB, and it’s possible that his velocity and command could increase if the Cubs change his mechanics. Is that worth $7 million (and a 40 man roster spot—-he gets a ML deal)? Maybe not normally, but I think the impending international signing caps (as well as the amateur draft caps) play into the amount of the deal. Epstein reportedly was concerned that the caps on international and draft signings would hurt his plans for rebuilding the team.

by clack on Feb 3, 2012 8:18 AM CST up reply actions

I have read that he’s very polished, but 18 is awfully young. Are teams able to sign DR kids right now? I think I’d like them to spend that money on 3 or 4 of them.

by MadMartygan on Feb 3, 2012 8:25 AM CST up reply actions

I saw that Badler mentioned 86-90 soft tosser. 7 million is what it will cost for the number one pick, and I think we all expect a number 1 type starter or all star player. I know the international market is very inflated, but is this the best use of money? I think I’m ok sitting these out.

by MadMartygan on Feb 3, 2012 8:21 AM CST up reply actions

there must be a difference of scouting views on his velocity, since I have seen it listed as 92 -94, with the potential for upper 90’s if the mechanics are improved. As you know, the information is more limited on Cuban players. But he was rookie of the year in the Cuban League, which might be similar to something between A level and AA level. If you knew that an 18 year old would be successful at that level in the ML minors, that makes him more attractive than a normal amateur signing. Also Cuban baseball is very hitter friendly, with typical ERAs in the mid-4’s or higher (that’s why I wonder about Cespedes). So a mid-3’s ERA by a teenager seems pretty good.

by clack on Feb 3, 2012 8:37 AM CST up reply actions

That difference in velocity would absolutely change my opinion.

by MadMartygan on Feb 3, 2012 8:50 AM CST via mobile up reply actions

A's Sign Cespedes

That’s a surprise. It came out of nowhere. 4 X $36 mil. contract. One surprising part is that the A’s are in a rebuilding mode.

by clack on Feb 13, 2012 11:55 AM CST reply actions

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