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Are the Astros previous DL stints a cause for Concern: Part III

Can I stay healthy?

In what was originally planned to be a single post about injury histories, it has grown to a two part series into a three part. Yesterday's post was supposed to encompass the outfield Martinez duo but got too lengthy and Fernando earned his own post since we haven't dived into his injury history too much. Part I can be found here.

I probably left a sour taste in your mouth (if you didn't already have one) yesterday with the return of Brandon Lyon and I hope this post will be a little more promising, but we will just have to wait and see.

Fernando Martinez has a very extensive injury history that dates all the way back to 2006. He has been given the injury prone tag and that tag is pretty appropriate when you look at how many games he has missed in his short professional career. Health is big part of a players value and his health has brought his value down so far that the Mets were willing to part with him and his development, despite having the ability to option him to AAA for seasoning one more time. That doesn't speak very well for him at all. The guy has tools and if he can put it together and at least stay semi healthy, claiming him will be a steal.

So, lets look at his injury history and try to draw some conclusions.

Star-divide

Fernando's first major DL stint was in 2006 when he went down with a bone bruise and strained ligaments in his right thumb. It'd doesn't take a doctor to know that pain in the thumb that allows us to do everything we do will cause you to not perform and require time off. Now, I don't know how he got a bone bruise (which takes a lot of force to create), but it is painful and wouldn't surprise me if he was hit by a pitch. That would make a lot of sense. The strain could be from the same incident or have been caused by the bone bruise weakening the ligaments structural integrity. Or, this actually could be the other way around, as the strain ligament damaged the bone enough to cause a bruise and an influx of blood and inflammation. This is likely one of those freak accidents that can happen to any player in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Oh wait, he went on the DL again in 2007 for another right hand injury? Are these related? I'm going to say no! The injury was actually a broken hamate bone (think Telvin Nash) which is on the ulnar side of the hand (pinkie side) and not connected to the thumb. Could it be a compensation for the injury to the thumb? I really doubt it as the hamate is a carpal bone and doesn't have much movement and there't not really a way to compensate for decreased stability, strength, or endurance in the thumb. The broken bone is not necessarily concerning as for health, but the fact it is a hamate bone can be damaging to power development, which is still in question to an extent. However, within approximately a year he has two significant bone injuries in the same hand does indicate a potential weakened skeletal system, at least in the hand.

His left wrist then went on to land him on the DL once again last season as he strained it. Obviously with four years in between the wrist injuries, they can't be a compensation type injury, nor can they be related. I couldn't find anything stating whether it was a muscle (most commonly referred to as being strained) or a ligament (anatomically makes more sense). So, it's hard for me to determine if the the strains can be indicative of being weak ligaments.

Moving up the arm, we find a right elbow strain in 2009, and we run into the same issue with what was the structure. Once again it makes more sense to be a ligament. Two years separate this from the hamate injury so it makes them unrelated. However, elbow strains can be common from guys who are prone to making long and hard throws (right fielders, center fielders, third baseman) without regular mechanical work (pitchers). We now have approximately three ligament injuries in five years in the upper extremities. That's not a good sign for his ligament integrity overall.

That is the extent of his upper body injuries, and we will now move on to his lower body injuries, which are much more extensive. I'm going to switch from taking the injuries from joint to joint, into taking these in chronological order as this will now be a little more informative for finding relationships.

The first lower extremity injury came in 2006 when he sprained his right knee. There are several ligaments to choose from in the knee, and each contributes to stability in different directions. If sprains aren't handled properly, they can have some long term effects with several type of injuries above and below the knee. However, it was two years later before he had another lower extremity injury which leads me to believe it was handled properly and the following injuries are not directly a result of the sprain.

In 2008, Martinez went on the DL twice with a right hamstring strain and the second was likely the result of him being rushed back to play. However, the original injury could have several factors that include the Mets rushing or pushing him too hard because of his talent (and that's what the Mets have a history of doing) or Martinez pushing himself too hard to live up to his hype. It also could be just a random injury, but I would suspect the sprain has a very minor involvement.

Now we start getting into the serious injuries. In 2009, he tore his meniscus in his right knee, resulting in surgery to repair it. The meniscus is a plate of cartilage that sits on top of the the plateau of the the tibia to cushion the weight of the femur. This structure is very important to the normal movement at the knee joint and even minor tears can cause the knee to lock-up, cause the knee to bend at inappropriate angles, and cause strain on knee ligaments. The meniscus doesn't repair well naturally as it has very little blood flow unless it is on the outer ring where there is some slight blood flow. Does this have a relationship with the sprain and hamstring? Quite possibly as the sprain could have temporarily decreased the stability of the joint enough to initiate some minor fraying of the meniscus that progressed over time and the hamstring tightened up the joint enough to pull the tibia posteriorly in a sliding movement instead of a rolling and gliding motion that is normal.

The surgery itself involves suturing or tacking the tear and allowing some cartilage to form over them. It has it's own risks as the surface may not be as smooth as it was before the tear, but is still better than a torn surface. The location of the tear is the most telling detail of the surgery as it lines out just how successful the surgery could be as well as the recovery outcome. The unfortunate issue is that part of the meniscus is found to be attached to the anterior cruciate ligament (ACL, think Jason Castro). This means, if the location is close to the ACL, future ACL type instabilities could be expected.

Fast forward to 2010 and you find a left hamstring injury. This is a classic compensation type injury. Remember the Castro compensation that resulted in his foot surgery? Same thing, except he strained his opposite hamstring. Also, it is another hamstring injury which leads me to now question hamstring/glutes/lower back flexibility and muscular balance between quadriceps and hamstrings.

We then find another DL stint to rest his right knee due to soreness and during this period, he was diagnosed with arthritis (cartilage inflammation) in his right knee. There are two main types of arthritis, osteoarthritis and rheumatoid arthritis. If it's rheumatoid, this guy's career will be short as there is no cure since it is an autoimmune (body attacking itself) disease and will eventually cause him to have to hang up his cleats at an early age. If it's osteoarthritis, we have a better outlook since it is a wear and tear type issue and can be managed. Either way, it's extremely early for him to have arthritis and that doesn't have a nice outlook. It also shows that his surgery was either too late to prevent wear on the articular cartilage or wasn't overly effective.

He reverted back to his hamstring strain again in 2011 which could be a clue that his arthritis/meniscus is not allowing for proper joint movement or that he is once again compensating from the left hamstring strain. But, following his return, he once again had a strain, but this time it was in his left hip flexors. This sounds like another compensation type injury as it is contralateral and moves the same joint (hamstrings are also hip extensors). But, this also bring into question his muscular balance from posterior to anterior musculature in the thigh as well as lower extremity flexibility.

Not pretty? Yeah, it really isn't. Conclusions that you can draw are that his right knee is in bad shape and he definitely has issues with compensating for injuries in order to protect himself. Short-term outlook says he can probably withstand a few years of everyday play in the outfield if he can stop his compensation injuries. But, that is assuming they are compensation injuries and not legitimate imbalances. Even if there are imbalances, these can be fixed with proper training, and that would be a better outlook. Although, you would expect that type of issue to be discovered and addressed at this point.

The upper body issues seem to be random for the most part although, I do doubt the strength of his ligaments to stand up over several years. They do seem to be fairly minor in degree and quite manageable. I think he was pushed way too hard in the early years (he's just 23 years and a handful of moths old), putting too much strain on his slowly developing body.

He physically could handle a few years in right field if his foot speed is not too overly diminished and definitely in left field. Although, his right knee scares me and I see him becoming a DH before his 30th birthday if his bat adjusts at the ML level. Even then, his right knee bothers me as it's his lead leg at the plate which does have significant torsion in a swing (think Tiger Woods knee problems). I would not expect him to be a mainstay in the Astros outfield long term and I am much more comfortable with the knees of JD Martinez in left field. But, we can at least have him DH long term if the bat develops.

But, for this to happen, the Astros have to make sure that they allow for his body to receive ample rest this season (in Houston or Oklahoma City) for his body to recover and not break down so that his body slowly adjusts to a season over one hundred games long. The training staff should already be at work checking his muscular balance and flexibility in his lower extremity.

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Good work again.

1. The Mets made the following statement after Fernando Martinez was removed from winter league last off-season and was examined by the Mets’ doctors:

He felt pain in his right knee while running to first base in a game with Escogido in the Dominican Winter League. An MRI showed mild arthritis in the knee, unchanged from his previous MRI. There was no new injury. He will wear a brace and continue to work on strengthening his knee before resuming baseball activities.

My question is whether the reference to mild arthritis might indicate a better prognosis or not?

2. The Mets have gotten a bad reputation (in the public’s eyes anyway) for their medical side. It’s not unusual for BBTF to break out in jokes about the Mets’ doctors whenever a Mets’ medical issue makes he news. The fact that Beltran and Reyes eventually chose to pay their own doctors added to that image. However, it may be the Mets’ approach to pushing their players that is more to blame. It seems like the Mets frequently try to bring their players back from injury too quickly. In F-Mart’s case, I get the impression that the Mets may have pushed his development too quickly at a young age. One can hope that perhaps a change in organizations will bring about a change in the way that his health is managed.

by clack on Jan 20, 2012 8:34 AM CST reply actions  

Arthritis is a progressive condition, so my assumption was that it was mild since it was recently diagnosed. The issue is how well it will be managed from here on out, if it is managed well, the condition will progress more slowly and can result in a longer shelf life. Although, the exact opposite is possible, mismanagement will result in rapid progression and end his career prematurely.

The Mets should have slowed his progress down when the injuries started to pile up instead of pushing him to the majors. His body doesn’t seem to be able to handle everyday playing time at this point and needs to be handled more lightly. For this reason, I would be ok with sending him to AAA and let him play 4-5 days a week for a period of time, and even let him DH some of those days.

by Subber10 on Jan 20, 2012 10:25 AM CST up reply actions  

Nice job

That is a long list of injuries there. Him getting designated for assignment by the Mets and then simultaneously being claimed by the Astros might have been the best thing for Fernando, and probably couldn’t have happened at a better time. He has the option that would allow him to spend time/season, in AAA so that he can be handled with care. He could get his regular playing time in OKC at his own pace, and then be brought up to Houston and also be used sparingly to make sure that his body can handle the stress. If he can prove himself at some point this year, or show improvement with the bat, then the Astros have the DH spot next year that he can utilize while getting occasional starts in the outfield.

Its sad that this promising players career has been deterred by injuries so much.

by conroestro on Jan 20, 2012 9:55 AM CST via mobile reply actions  

I’m with you in that I think they need to ease him into some playing time in OkC this year and let his body build up strength and endurance instead of putting pressure on him in Houston.

by Subber10 on Jan 20, 2012 10:26 AM CST up reply actions  

So is all the hype

Around Martinez based on tools? His minor league numbers don’t look all that special. Are people keeping hope because the combination of being young for his leagues and his injuries is a good enough excuse to still dream on his tools? I get he’s still very young and I have no problem with taking him but I don’t see where this future DH label is coming from. Just looking at his minor league numbers he seems like his bat would only play at center, short catcher and maybe second and third. Not the corner OF spots unless he’s a good fielder. Not at first and not at DH. Am I missing something in his numbers? He doesn’t walk. He strikes out and he doesnt have a ton of power and now he doesnt run.

A couple of related thoughts: he seems like a warning to the Astros of what might happen if they rush Villar or Paredes. Although the injuries probably played a bigger role than being rushed.

I feel very negatively towards prospects who have their reps based on tools but don’t really ever produce. This is just based on personal experience with Astros prospects. It seems like the good ones start producing before or at AA. That’s why I really don’t have much hope in Villar even though he was rushed. Do you guys know of examples of players who were tools prospects and did not light up the minors who actually turned into good players?

by ntn on Jan 20, 2012 10:30 AM CST via mobile reply actions  

It’s probably a combination of those things. I think that his very high prospect rankings lead people to view his talent as elite: only a couple of years ago, Keith Law ranked him as one of top 10 hitting prospects in baseball…Baseball America has ranked him in the Top 50 or Top 100 prospects for every year of his career—until last year. So, he had elite talent and now people wonder if the lack of results is simply due to the Mets pushing him too fast and/or injuries. He has been very young for every level he has played, until last season when his age started to catch up with his level. I think F-Mart tended to get a pass on the actual performance because he was always too young for his level. He was in AA at age 19 and AAA at age 20. And, looking at it in context, his 2009 season in AAA makes him look like a monster prospect. At only 20 years old, had a .250 ISO in AAA, a .290, .337, .540, .877 slash line, and .382 wOBA. His knee injury occurred that year, and he seemed to be in injury recovery mode every year after that.

Also, keep in mind that performance numbers in the International League are depressed relative to what we’re used to seeing in the PCL. His .746 OPS in AAA last year probably equates to something like a .830 or so OPS in the PCL. I’m not saying that meets what people expected from him, but it indicates that his hitting was not terrible last year (in fact, it was above average for his league as indicated by his 104 OPS+).. I think the appeal is that we can hope that, with better health, he returns to that development curve he was on as a hitter in 2008.

I have my doubts that F-Mart will be a high average hitter. But he has a lot of raw power, even if it hasn’t shown up in his HR numbers. He can hit the ball a long way to all fields. If you accept the adage that HR power may not show up early in a player’s career, then the fact that he is still young is a factor in believing that tool may show up.

by clack on Jan 20, 2012 11:23 AM CST up reply actions  

even last year, he was 22 in AAA, which is still young for that level, by the way.

by clack on Jan 20, 2012 11:26 AM CST up reply actions  

Off topic

but the Astros are apparently in the process of signing Chris Snyder according to MLBTR.

by Uncle Chris on Jan 20, 2012 11:32 AM CST reply actions  

Looks like he signed.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/01/astros-sign-chris-snyder.html

Seems like a decent move. Can catch until Castro is healthy, then split time with him afterwards.

The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.

by Stupendous Man on Jan 20, 2012 11:40 AM CST via mobile up reply actions  

VERY GOOD MOVE. Fills a GIANT hole with someone who can provide some decent offense at a premium position on a one year deal that fits in the budget.

by Snake Diggity on Jan 20, 2012 11:43 AM CST up reply actions  

It will be nice to have a catcher who can hit for a bit of power for a change, at the very least.

The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.

by Stupendous Man on Jan 20, 2012 11:47 AM CST via mobile up reply actions  

well part IV will hopefully come out next week on Snyder

by Subber10 on Jan 20, 2012 12:07 PM CST reply actions  

I like how now I’m starting to get these adds:

http://www.kingbrand.com/Knee-Injury-Meniscus.php?REF=DMeniscus

Follow my ramblings on Twitter .

by Timothy De Block on Jan 20, 2012 2:49 PM CST reply actions  

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