TCB Podcast Episode 28
by Timothy De Block on Jan 17, 2012 8:00 AM CST
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TCB Podcast ready and willing to invade your thoughts and tickle your ear drums.
In this episode David Coleman, Sean Feist, Joshua Powling and myself discuss:
- Jeff Bagwell and the Hall of Fame
- The trade value of Wandy Rodriguez and Carlos Lee
- The draft
- Transactions involving J.R. Towles, Fernando Martinez and the trade of Mark Melancon
- Changes in the coaching staff and front office.
We got into an interesting discussion involving the real reason why Joe Pettini was brought in I completely forgot to mention that Cesar Cedeno was named the hitting coach for the Astros Minor League affiliate in Greeneville. Due to time constraints and conspiracy theory I totally spaced on mentioning him in the podcast, but I wanted to give recognition of that move here as it is a fantastic move.
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If you have any comments or questions in regards to the podcast you can email the show at thecrawfishboxes@gmail.com. If you have a question please be sure to include your name and where you're from. Also big thanks to those of you that have rated us on iTunes we appreciate the feedback.
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Not related to the podcast, which I haven't listened to yet
But Happ just got a raise in arbitration to the tune of $2.35M for 2012. If that was the going rate, I may have non-tendered him, given we have plenty of other BoR options.
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Looking forward to the podcast which I haven't heard YET
But this is too big to pass up. A 1.876 million dollar raise was definately more than I was expecting and he’d better continue that stretch of good pitching that he had after he was brought back up after his demotion. If he doesn’t I’m going to wish we still had Ol’ Tal back…JK.
by Its Gonna Happen on Jan 17, 2012 3:52 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
I was expecting something in the $2 million range. The fact that he has been a starting pitcher for several years means that he will be due a good sum of money in arbitration, despite a less than stellar performance in 2011. Arb salaries for team controlled players are only partially based on performance, and performance beyond the most recent year is taken into account. Previously when we had discussions around here about what Norris or Wandy would bring in a trade, I wondered if we should be thinking about trading Happ, given that he would be entering arbitration eligibility.
I paused the podcast to comment on something said
The point was made that once Bagwell reaches 60%, he’s virtually in the hall of fame. I don’t think that’s necessarily true. In the past, someone who has reached 60% so early has usually gotten in, but the case is different this time (and will remain different) because of the PED question.
Writers that truly believe Bagwell used PED’s (and are therefore off my Christmas card list) will not suddenly change their minds. If 40% of the BBWAA writers believe that he used, and they refuse to vote for anybody they believe used, then Bagwell could conceivably stay at 60%. It’s a case where ego is involved, and what we are seeing with the hall of fame voters this year and in the past few years can justifiably be said to be completely unique in the history of the sport. The proliferation of mass communication, added to increases in technology and the widespread exposure of PEDs in sports, has created a new situation.
Unless writers change their minds for some reason, I think it is very possible (and sadly likely, if enough writers feel the same way) that Bagwell will never see the hall, even if he manages to reach as high as 70%.
I agree that future circumstances could make the past precedent less important. Besides the PED issue, the future glut of HOF worthy players, and the way that the PED issue will become more controversial as a result, creates more uncertainty about Bagwell’s future in the HOF. That said, I think that Bagwell will get into the HOF, but it may not happen as soon as we would like.
I'm not too cool to join you guys on the Podcast.
I’m just really intimidated by your greatness. Honestly, if there were a Dundee Award for podcasting, you guys would at LEAST win Honorable Mention.
:D
see too cool
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by Timothy De Block on Jan 17, 2012 4:22 PM CST up reply actions
In other news:
Tigers DH Victor Martinez will miss the 2012 season with a torn ACL.
Given that the tigers will definitely compete for the playoffs in 2012, might Carlos Lee be a very good solution for them?
In almost 600 PA last season, V-Mart hit 76-12-103 , 330/380/470
In 650 PA last season, Lee hit 66-18-94 , 275/342/446 (and that’s with nobody in front of him to hit in)
Given that Lee’s contract is over in 2013 (when V-Mart will be back) and Lee’s flexibility at 1B (can give Cabrera a rest if needed) and LF (Delmon Young and Brennan Boesch aren’t exactly sure-things)….I see a potential fit if the Astros eat a lot of contract.
Lunhow should be on the phone, asking about good prospects.
I'd miss Carlos
Without him we’d have no water buffalo jokes and TCB would grow boring. That being said, fingers are crossed that we can get at least one prospect that has standout potential.
by Its Gonna Happen on Jan 17, 2012 4:36 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
We could make fun of me, if that makes you feel better. ;)
Thinking is the hardest work there is, which is probably the reason why so few engage in it. - Henry Ford
Ok
But it won’t be as fun if you’re not making an ungodly amount of money to suck at what you do.
by Its Gonna Happen on Jan 17, 2012 7:36 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
I don’t know that the Astros can get much of value in return, but I agree that the Tigers look like a decent match.
That does look like a good fit. I suppose Damon and Vlad are less expensive free agent options that the Tigers could also get for a year, but they also wouldn’t be as good as Carlos. Pena probably is holding out for a multi year deal and is also more expensive, but also is another option for them. They wouldn’t have to give anything up if they went that route, but Carlos definitely seems like a good fit for them.
Don’t know if the Tigers is a team that is blocked by Carlos though. If so maybe he would waive that for a chance at the playoffs with the tigers. We know he probably doesn’t want to DH full time though.
by conroestro on Jan 17, 2012 5:44 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Doesn’t make much sense.
Thinking is the hardest work there is, which is probably the reason why so few engage in it. - Henry Ford
Judging from video, it looks like he has pretty good bat speed.
I think the Astros may be hoping Cust will be able to come back from his sub-par season last year. He would probably take J-Mike’s role as pinch hitter / 5th OF’er since neither Bourgeois nor Shuck can bring power off the bench as OF’ers and Cust’s defense is questionable. With his bad defense, there would be a need for an infielder who can play OF (Downs).
Risky Signing, but there is potential, and he wouldn’t be totally useless unless he pulls a Joe Inglett and Brad Mills plays him like Joe Inglett half of the season.
Thinking is the hardest work there is, which is probably the reason why so few engage in it. - Henry Ford
Completely out of left field, yeah. Weird signing.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Jan 17, 2012 9:44 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
I guess he can DH in 2013.
But what do the Astros do with him until then? Maybe Lee is on his way out soon?
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Jan 17, 2012 9:44 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
You don’t sign someone to DH in two years!!!! Settle that next year! The guy didn’t even play in the field last year.
by Subber10 on Jan 17, 2012 9:46 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Maybe out of the young guys competing for the starting spots, the ones that don’t make get sent back down for more seasoning. I guess they don’t want to waste the pinch hitter spot on someone they want getting everyday playing time. I don’t know. This is irritating.
I agree.
I have no idea how this move can be explained rationally. Let’s wait on the press release, I guess…
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Jan 17, 2012 9:52 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
I think this probably assumes, or is based on the liklihood, that Brett Wallace starts the season in AAA. Cust is a platoon player who hits from the same side as Wallace. (And for that matter, maybe Wallace is better off getting more at bats at AAA then being used in a platoon at the ML level.) Cust probably is a roll of the dice who gets discarded if he is terrible or if Wallace tears up AAA and needs to be called up. That’s my thinking. If Cust’s power returns (a big IF, of course), then he could be a really nice addition, since he would add OBP and the ability to walk to the lineup. I’m not saying that is likely to happen (I think that the liklihood is that his power days are gone), but it is possible.
WTF!!! How did Ed Wade get back in the office!
by Subber10 on Jan 17, 2012 9:44 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Maybe Wade signed him in November.
And just forgot to tell Luhnow until now. “Oh, yeah, I signed Jack Cust, by the way. Completely forgot about it, so yeah….”
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Jan 17, 2012 9:55 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Only a 1-year deal
With option for 2nd year.
brianmctaggart Brian McTaggart
Astros sign Jack Cust to one-year deal plus club option
45 seconds ago Favorite Retweet Reply
Thinking is the hardest work there is, which is probably the reason why so few engage in it. - Henry Ford
Makes more sense. No way he earned a two year deal after last season.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Jan 17, 2012 10:04 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
So basically.
Bogey, Schafer(maybe) J.D, Cust and I’m guessing Bourgeois? Fernando Martinez either beats out one of the others or gets himself together in AAA and Shuck gets one more year in AAA. I can’t say I’m against Fernando trying to get some of his confidence back, and I’m whatevs on Shuck.
I’m also going to be expecting Carlos Lee to be dealt.
by MadMartygan on Jan 17, 2012 10:12 PM CST up reply actions
Last I read, the Rays were interested. Maybe the Tigers now, as well.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Jan 17, 2012 10:14 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Even then, Cust isn’t a 1st baseman. Bogey could play 1st, but his defense is best in right. Cust really doesn’t fit with where the club is at right now if they expect him to be anything more than a pinch hitter.
Thinking is the hardest work there is, which is probably the reason why so few engage in it. - Henry Ford
I’d imagine it’d be the easiest position to learn. Reminds me of the movie Moneyball. Plus Cust has had a good OBP near .400 in years past.
Thinking is the hardest work there is, which is probably the reason why so few engage in it. - Henry Ford
He’s got some power and a decent eye, but he strikes out like crazy. Maybe Safeco killed him last year.
by MadMartygan on Jan 17, 2012 10:26 PM CST up reply actions
He has always been the 3 Outcome player. If he can produce two of those outcomes (walks, HRs), I really don’t care about the K outcome. But I don’t look forward to fans complaining about Cust’s strike outs. If people thought Bill Hall whiffs too much, they haven’t seen Cust yet.
As an aside, I’m reminded of something Bagwell said about Chris Johnson’s offense in 2010. He said he had never seen a player who benefitted so much by swinging through pitches that were supposed to get him out with weak contact. Bagwell said he didn’t know if CJ could keep it up (he didn’t), but CJ would whiff on pitches that cause most players to make weak contact and then later in the count hit a double or HR. I wonder if Cust’s power is helped because he can’t make contact with pitches intended to induce weak groundballs?
Sounds like it's time for another "Who Art Thou" article with use of Pitch F/X.
I’ll add it to the list.
Finally finished the podcast
I was really intrigued by 2 different points. The first was Villar possibly playing CF. We had discussed maybe him being in the running for RF, where his strong arm and speed would be ideal, but his bat wasn’t far enough along to play a corner spot. The idea of him playing CF kind of seems perfect. I do think he has the speed to cover enough ground and his bat would play up for the position.
The second point was Jeff Luhnows perspective on Brad Mills coming into the organization. Now, I’ve been on record saying I’m a fan of Brad Mills and think with a better group of players, he could produce a winning team. But, how would a true outsider view the manager of the worst team in baseball? With that 25 page report he brought in, I’m sure Mills had his own section highlighted. Now would the FO accept Mills’ change in philosophy if he were to support the youngsters, or has Luhnow already replaced him and is just waiting for the first slip up?
Ps. Great Podcast…More draft talk, I don’t care how early it is! ;)
by Its Gonna Happen on Jan 19, 2012 4:37 AM CST via mobile reply actions
Shortstop is a more valuable position than center field
His bat would play up more at SS than CF, and Villar has gold glove potential at shortstop, it’s not like he projects to be defensively lacking at the position.
I don’t see it.
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I think by Villar he meant Paredes.
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by Timothy De Block on Jan 19, 2012 8:50 AM CST up reply actions
I feel like an ass
I did mean Paredes, Villar is our “future at SS” (knocks on wood)
by Its Gonna Happen on Jan 19, 2012 4:14 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
7.12 K/9 with a 100 mph fastball in college? That doesn’t really excite me. This is not a Strasburg-like prospect.
None of them is. I’m just not excited. A 7.71 K/9 in college could be 6 or worse in the pros. 100 mph and low K rate could indicate a flat fastball. Major leaguers will crush that.
I’d rather have a toolsy upside guy at this point. I don’t know much about Appel, but he’s not a guy I dream about as the ace of a rotation.
Right. I am not the biggest Appel fan, either. I will say that his Cape Cod and Team USA stints looked good with the 36 Ks and 5 BBs in 29 innings. He’s definitely a possibility for the top pick though and I figure we should get to know him a bit this year.
Yeah, scouting-wise everything looks good about Appel, but there is something disquieting about the results…that he doesn’t have the dominance you would expect. The best thing that could happen is for Appel to destroy the college hitters this year and become a consensus first pick. But right now, I’m not completely sold on him.
The scouting reports are just amazing. Everything you could ask for, with electric stuff, 2 good secondary pitches, a clean and easy delivery, and a body that’s made for pitching 200 innings. When you look at the numbers, they just don’t pop out like you’d like. I hope he does have a dominating junior year.
I agree that he is everything you want in a pitcher
But his numbers just haven’t been all that, so far. I however, will take a different stance, and hope that he struggles a bit this year and drops like Matt Purke did last year. I’m already excited about the possibility of getting a Mark Appel and maybe a Nick or Trey Williams to boot, but getting a Victor Roache or Giolito and Appel, that’s just awesome.
by Its Gonna Happen on Jan 19, 2012 4:24 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
This is exactly why I was so low on Cole
And have been vocally critical of the Pirates for taking him first overall over @ Minor League Ball. And Cole’s results were better than Appel’s have been up to this point.
That said, if Appel comes into this college season and starts to put up gaudy numbers to match his scouting reports, that would easily solidify his spot as first overall.
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by amadesha@gmail.com on Feb 4, 2012 7:55 AM CST reply actions
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Current Series
4 game series vs Rockies @ Coors Field
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Houston Astros
Monday, May 28, 2012, 2:10 PM CDT Wandy Rodriguez vs Juan Nicasio Sunny. Winds blowing in from center field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 70. |
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| Mon 05/28 | 7:10 PM CDT | |
| Wed 05/30 | 7:40 PM CDT | |
| Thu 05/31 | 7:40 PM CDT | |
NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
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27 | 20 | .574 | 0 | Won 2 |
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St. Louis
|
26 | 22 | .541 | 1.5 | Won 1 |
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Pittsburgh
|
23 | 24 | .489 | 4 | Won 3 |
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Houston
|
22 | 25 | .468 | 5 | Lost 2 |
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Milwaukee
|
19 | 28 | .404 | 8 | Lost 2 |
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Chicago
|
15 | 32 | .319 | 12 | Lost 12 |
(updated 5.28.2012 at 12:18 AM CDT)
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